Collin Martin

Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy @SchwabResearch. Disclosures:

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

This is one of the key trends we’re focusing on. Inflation has been moving in the wrong direction for the last few months following some cool summer readings.

After falling as low as 60% last Thursday, the implied probability of a hike in December is back to 100%. We agree, as we expect a hike in December and another in early 2027.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

3m annualized change in core CPI in October: +3.75%

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Check out the latest episode of #OnInvesting where @LizAnnSonders and I discussed the election results and the busy week for the markets.

Then Liz Ann chatted with Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington and Rebecca Patterson to discuss their new book! Liz Ann's chapter is last, but it's worth the wait!

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Busy week for markets! Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @CollinMartinCS and I chat election results, continued evolution of AI trade, rotations, inflation, outlook for interest rates and bonds, etc. … I also sat down with co-authors Jenny Harrington and Rebecca Patterson to discuss our new book!

https://t.co/KkKGHsVzPg

https://t.co/S7kgy4wwSM

[Charles Schwab Corp @CharlesSchwab]

What’s really in an earnings report? Schwab’s Alexandra Semenova (@alexandraandnyc) breaks down the ins and outs of Corporate America’s “quarterly report card” and explains how it can inform investment decisions.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

The Bloomberg US Treasury Index just had its best monthly total return since December 2023. That follows the large decline in September, but it's a step in the right direction.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

You asked, we answered.

In this edition of Schwab's "Comment Below" series, I answer key questions about what's been happening in the bond market and what it might mean for portfolios.

https://t.co/PNZqX6rOj7

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

On our latest episode of #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I discuss the sharp swings in Treasury yields, what stubbornly high inflation might mean for the Fed, and how bonds can provide diversification.

That last point is important: bonds did what they were supposed to do this week. With AI stocks stumbling a bit, fiscal concerns in France, and tensions rising in the Middle East, the 10-year Treasury yield saw its largest one-day decline in more than two years, pulling Treasury prices higher.

https://t.co/ideTjQmgC4

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

ICYMI: Last week's TIC report for August highlighted the month's strong demand for long-term Treasuries. Total foreign inflows came in at their highest level since May 2025, with foreign private investors (orange columns) largely behind the jump.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

On our latest episode of #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I discuss this week's CPI report and what it means for the Fed, and how the impact of higher yields on companies can vary depending on how rate-sensitive they are.

I then had a fantastic chat with Bryan Whalen, Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at @TCWGroup. We discussed the AI infrastructure buildout, how it's impacting the broad bond market, and...French pastries.

https://t.co/7tSrbmsxcz

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Check out our latest article on corporate bonds and preferred securities:

https://t.co/Uwz0YyXIPX

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Wondering what Fed rate hikes could mean for stocks, bonds, and the economy? Check out the latest article I coauthored with fellow subject-matter experts from the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
https://t.co/98PXgWlNO6

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

The Fed is raising rates again, but this cycle may look different from many of the rate-hiking periods investors have experienced in the past.

In this article, my colleagues and I discuss why supply-side pressures, AI-driven investment, and resilient economic growth may shape the path of interest rates, along with what it could mean for stocks, bonds, and the broader economy.

Worth a read for investors trying to separate the headlines from the bigger picture:
https://t.co/iPOdR9DITk

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Check out our latest #OnInvesting episode featuring @NelaRichardson from ADP. The conversation touched all things jobs, including manufacturing, labor shortages, overtime trends, job-switching premiums, and how demographic shifts are reshaping workforce dynamics.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped on which @CollinMartinCS and I riff on markets and I sit down with the always-insightful @NelaRichardson from ADP to talk all things jobs-related
https://t.co/cE254ULT3x

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

On our latest episode of #OnInvesting, @LizAnnSonders and I discuss the move up in Treasury yields and the shifting shape of the yield curve, cooling inflation, and what all of this means for the markets. Liz Ann then had a great chat with Eric Liu on investor positioning.

https://t.co/V2ArSuG2Pq

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Average BB and B spreads have risen 23 and
36 basis points, respectively, this year, well below the 366bps increase in CCC spreads. BBs make up 55% of the Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index, while CCCs make up just 10%.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Credit update: Average CCC spreads are now above 10%, or "distressed". It's the highest level since March 2023.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

With three trading days left this month, the high-yield bond index is on track for its worst monthly total return since September 2022. The index has been hit by both higher spreads and higher Treasury yields lately.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Rising Treasury yields finally began to weigh on the credit markets last week. The average option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index rose 30 basis points in just three days and closed at the highest level since early April.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

CCCs had already been showing cracks. This chart shows the YTD change in spread for each credit rating sub-index. CCC spreads are now up 325bps for the year, but BB and B spreads are now up YTD as well, albeit modestly.

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Check out our latest episode of #OnInvesting! @LizAnnSonders and I chat about what's happening under the surface of the equity markets, and how investors should be thinking about the recent move up in yields.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Our latest #OnInvesting podcast episode has dropped, on which @CollinMartinCS and I focus on what rising interest rates are really signaling, why stock market strength is masking weakness in breadth beneath surface, and how investors should think about bond allocations in higher-for-longer rate environment: https://t.co/V4eAdH6buf

[Collin Martin @CollinMartinCS]

Looking for investor questions!

For an upcoming video series, I'll be answering your biggest questions about the bond market and fixed income investing—from the Fed outlook, what's happening with Treasury yields, and where there may be opportunities today.

I want to address the questions that are top of mind for you. Please share your questions in the comments, and let me know what fixed income topics you'd like to see covered.