Colm Fitzgerald

Trader, economist, classicist. Trades using non-axiomatic maths. Lectures at & PhD from UCD. Previously Head of Quantitative Trading at Bank of Ireland

[Colm Fitzgerald @ColmFitzgerald]

Teaching 👨‍🏫 ✅
+ Ethics & Investing👨‍💼 💰 ✅
+ Wonderful students ❤️✅
+ Trees and nature🌲 🌳 ✅
+ Optimism ✅
= 🙏+😀

[University College Dublin @ucddublin]

🌳🌲🌳☂️🌲🦉🌲
🌲🌳🌲👩‍💻🌳🌲🌳

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IEA: SEES 2027 WORLD OIL SUPPLY 3.94M BPD ABOVE DEMAND (PREV FORECAST 3.73M BPD ABOVE); RESTRICTED MIDDLE DISTILLATE SUPPLY TO PERSIST WELL INTO 2027 AS DIESEL MARKETS UNDER SIGNIFICANT STRAIN FROM PROLONGED DISRUPTIONS

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

Middle East Crude Oil Exports by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Oman combined during 2026; stated in million barrels per day.

JAN: 18.335
FEB: 19.434
MAR: 8.712
APR: 8.501
MAY: 6.488
JUN: 11.087
JUL: 12.939
AUG: 13.896
SEP: 14.652
OCT: 17.273

#OOTT #IranWar

[Michel Lara @VeraCausa9]

There's an old adage that's seems fitting to reading books: "He that too much embraceth, holds little" or as Quintilian wrote in his Institutio Oratoria Bk.X:

"The mind is formed by reading deep rather than reading wide"

Et multa magis quam multorum lectione formanda mens

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Trump: time for Ukraine to appoint a new leader

[Classic Learning Test @CLT_Exam]

Thomas Jefferson believed that learning Greek and Latin was one of the greatest gifts he received from his education.

Even after becoming president of the United States, he continued reading ancient authors and recommending them to younger students.

In 1820, he wrote to his grandson Francis Eppes and advised him to study Homer and Thucydides in Greek, along with Cicero and Virgil in Latin.

He even wrote that he felt more indebted to his father for giving him a classical education than for the other comforts his family had provided.

It is interesting that a man who helped establish a new republic spent so much of his life reading authors from civilizations that disappeared centuries before he was born.

As Jefferson wrote:

“To read the Latin & Greek authors in their original is a sublime luxury.”

[Man of Myth @Mythos_Man]

“Count it the greatest of all sins to prefer life to honour, and to lose, for the sake of living, all that makes life worth having.”

— Juvenal

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

VITOL: MIDDLE EAST OIL FLOWS RECOVER, BUT SHIPPING CRISIS DEEPENS

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy says the Middle East has re-engineered its oil trade through bypass routes and shuttle operations, with crude and product flows recovering to around 14 million barrels per day.

But Hardy warns inventory buffers in the West are largely gone, and without these flows oil could face a $200-per-barrel scenario.

The crisis has shifted from crude, to refined products, and now to shipping, with insufficient vessels and near-nightly attacks on ships attempting Hormuz transits.

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇹🇷🇵🇰 Turkey and Pakistan to deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia after activating Mecca Joint Defense Agreement against Yemen's Houthis.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US Secretary of Defense: The amount of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz today exceeds what it was before the outbreak of the conflict.

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

It's fascinating how people had NO TROUBLE believing the numbers when they were A LOT LOWER. Now all of sudden, everything is a lie when even publicly-accessible satellite imagery show FAR MORE tanker loadings and STS transfers that result in GREATER EXPORTS.

[Ben Cahill @bencahillenergy]

Never underestimate Aramco engineers and project managers. Fast recovery from Sep. 2019 Abqaiq & Kurais attacks and this East-West pipeline incident show how carefully they prepare and respond.

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

During this conflict, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have (on average) exported 26% fewer barrels of crude oil than they did during the same period last year, while the average price per barrel has risen 44% this year.

#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US ASKED EUROPE TO RELEASE OVER 1/3 OF DIESEL RESERVES:POLITICO

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice from Beijing following the Golden Week holiday that runs until October 7, four people briefed on the matter said on Thursday.

As China looks to safeguard domestic supplies, state oil major PetroChina cancelled on Wednesday the majority of its gasoline and jet fuel shipmenets planned for October three of the sources said.
Reuters
#oott

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SOFTER U.S. INFLATION CUTS FED HIKE ODDS

August core PCE fell to 3.0% YoY vs. 3.3% expected, while headline PCE came in at 3.4% vs. 3.7% forecast.

Q2 GDP was revised higher to 2.2% from 1.5%.

Kalshi now prices a 65% chance of no October Fed hike, versus 31% for a 25bp increase.
https://t.co/qUEGIdb1ac

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GOLDMAN: GULF OIL EXPORTS FULLY RECOVER TO 2025 LEVELS

Persian Gulf oil exports have doubled in September, reaching 23.3 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs.

Crude shipments have recovered to 108% of their 2025 average, but key refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, remain at just 50% amid refinery outages and shipping risks.

Goldman sees the global oil market roughly balanced and maintains its $85 Brent forecast for year-end.

[Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu]

Wow, one pilot reportedly tried to stab the other one and was neutralised by one of the passengers on the fly Dubai flight.

Israel’s Channel 12 claims the pilot with the knife was planning to either crash the plane or fly it into a target in 9/11 style

[David Kass @DrDavidKass]

Ed Yardeni: "A more likely explanation for the global bond market rout is that the yen-carry trade is unwinding as the Bank of Japan raises its policy rate, forcing carry traders to sell government bonds they bought worldwide with proceeds from cheap yen loans. This trade allowed many governments run budget deficits without putting upward pressure on their bond yields. Now, the chickens have come home to roost."

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GOLDMAN WARNS JUNK BOND SUPPLY IS OVERWHELMING INVESTORS

Goldman Sachs says a flood of U.S. high-yield debt issuance is straining investor demand, pushing junk-bond spreads to their widest since April.

September issuance has reached $38.5 billion, while CCC spreads have surged to their highest since 2023.

Goldman has also tracked nearly $600 billion of AI-related debt supply this year, warning that another acceleration could come in 2027.

[nature @Nature]

Hearts from young donors age rapidly in the bodies of older recipients, and older hearts are rejuvenated inside young people

https://t.co/f8JG7MiryQ