Colubeat ID

✍️I analyze great businesses. Some undervalued, all high quality. Always learning
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[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

$USLM + AI infrastructure. Spent time going through the construction docs, soil data and steel filings.

The documents tell a slightly different story from the one going around. Full write-up👇
https://t.co/8Bazl4ujrx

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

Been looking at this one. $SITE hit $101 today.
Same price as 2019. Revenue since then: $2.4B v $4.7B, FCF: $158M v $247M.
690 branches, 0.8x net leverage, 11.8x EV/EBITDA. Maybe the cycle is in the price. The consolidation story probably isn't.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@gus_finknottle Updating that section in the article to reflect the distinction more accurately. Appreciate you pointing it out.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

$USLM + AI infrastructure. Spent time going through the construction docs, soil data and steel filings.

The documents tell a slightly different story from the one going around. Full write-up👇
https://t.co/8Bazl4ujrx

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@gus_finknottle Good catch. I correlated margin expansion w/ Waha collapse and stated it more precisely than the evidence supports.
USLM never names a hub. Cleburne is Barnett country, not Permian, the benefit is cheap regional TX gas, not literal Waha pricing.
Should've been clearer on that.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@VBATCAPITAL Fully agree on all 3. Succession is probably my biggest concern (Byrne through 2028, no clear heir). The cash balance vs. the pace of buybacks is still something I struggle with. On infra, Texas looks better positioned than most, but IIJA renewal risk in 2026–27 is very real.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

Published a new thesis on $USLM.
Lime business in Texas. Hard to compete with, hard to replicate. Stock dropped on a soft quarter. The asset didn't change.

Full write-up on 1st reply👇

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@VBATCAPITAL The older roads now facing much heavier traffic due to industrial growth, that's a great angle. Really appreciate the engineering perspective 🙏

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@VBATCAPITAL Really appreciate this! the PMIS report + GIS tool are great sources.
The JCP/CRCP angle is spot on: that 10% pavement is where TX struggles most. The horizontal growth point is something I definitely want to dig deeper into

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@Frederik_1234 Today I'll post an article where I tried to dig into all of this. Free to read ;)

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@Frederik_1234 Honestly, I think so, yes. Market paid for the story before the docs confirmed it, and the part that does hold up is smaller and slower than what got priced in imo.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@Frederik_1234 Margin expanded on Waha gas. Some of that probably fades into H2'26.
The AI thesis is real, mostly through steel demand, but it's gradual. At around 15x EBITDA, not much room for error.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

$USLM + AI infrastructure. Going through the construction docs.

Will post an article tomorrow with what I found.
$META $AMZN $NUE $STLD

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@310Value Classic $TIC, post something constructive, stock goes the other way. No clean explanation, just one of those days.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

$TIC just repriced its $1.6B term loan
25 bps cut gives $4M annual interest in savings, maturity unchanged.
3rd repricing in 18 months (was SOFR +350 in 2024)

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

Lenders are getting more comfortable with this credit.
Feels like the market is giving them some credit for execution. Still 3.8x net leverage vs <2.5x mgmt target by '29, room to run on the delevering.

No real change in the read-through

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@Frederik_1234 Geography + zero debt holds. But here's the real question: is $USLM secretly the picks-and-shovels play on the AI boom in TX and LA?
Spent some time digging into it.

Article on that this week. A few things surprised me.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@RaphiSavitz Could hedge via swaps, but USLM doesn't appear to, no disclosure. Fully spot exposed.

​On pipes: yes, Blackcomb & Hugh Brinson in H2 '26 should compress basis. Covering my estimates next week, looks like a real margin trim, but perhaps more manageable than feared.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@tom_grlla Thanks a lot for reading. Let me know what you think when you finish!

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@Mr_Neutral_Man @taobanker Fair point on MLM/VMC, post-GFC mult compression was brutal. Diff w/ $BZU is entry mult & leverage. Not compressing from peak on a levered name. Net cash matters here imo. No refi risk if the cycle weakens further, which helps downside. Not immune, just doesn’t feel like '07.

[Colubeat ID @ColubeatID]

@310Value @dopamine_uptake @taobanker @tom_grlla Fair enough. Management might well be capturing some peripheral volume there.