CommOddity

Sometimes Speculator, sometimes Investor.
Sometimes Discretionary Trader, sometimes Systematic Trader.
Always Analyst.

[Jarrett Renshaw @JarrettRenshaw]

Trump quote discounting economic warnings before the Iran war: "A lot of people thought that inflation would be through the roof and the stock market would crash," Trump said about consultants warning about the economic impact from the war in Iran. "'Don't do it, sir. $300 a barrel, it's gonna be a wild thing. It's going to be horrible. The depression is gonna happen.' Well, not gonna happen because we just hit a brand new all time high."

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

In a couple of hours #TTF is going to open - for the first time ever in its history - overnight.
Odd enough mrkt is going to "celebrate" it with a huge gap-up: I expect +15%/+20%.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@WSJ wow that's big innovation 😂...basically how houses have been built in Italy since middle ages.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@pedma7 @jdvaron248 "an edge is not found in a backtest": this thought implies several layers of meanings and practical consequences. Gold.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@PositiveGamma11 The Russian law on restrictions (Decree No. 254) specifically addressed dividends/coupons >10m/month: do you hence believe/have evidence smaller amounts in RUB will be distributed to investors?

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

We are witnessing a massive squeeze on European Jet Kerosene. The diff versus Ice Gasoil (its most liquid referebce) is going parabolic.

=> huge losses coming for many airline companies hedging programs since proxy against GO or Brent it's very common.
#airlines #Hedge #squeeze

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@Daire_talks you're right, posted chart has 10mins candles while settlement procedure works around a very short time-window.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

Biggest squeeze EVER on ICE Gasoil futures.
The March contract has been pumped +28% pre Settlement (whi ch happens 16:30 London Time) and then dumped the very second after. 1/n
#OOTT #Oilprices

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

4/4
Ice Gasoil is widely used in the industry to hedge physical exposure, and its settlement price is pivotal to the pricing of everything is distillates in Europe (Diesel, Jet Fuel, Marine Gasoil, you name it). This is a major break-up of the market.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

3/n
Comparison with ICE Brent flat price action shows that Gasoil movement was stand-alone: 100% linked to its own settlement time.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

Carry has been smashed since then.

Introduction of micro-futures by CME likely contributed a lot.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

The huge #CarryTrade on #Bitcoin

In time of zero (when not negatives rates) #Contango on #BTC yields easily >10% annualized return: easy money?

First hint: #CME futures it is NOT deliverable: cash-settlement in this case makes the life harder for the arbitrageur.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

Second hint: yields computed above are gross.

It is long the road from "gross" to "net" in such a market: illiquidity, volatility (likely biggest #initialmargin in the industry!) to name a few.

Curious to know if and how many traders are making profits out of this #arbitrage.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@nntaleb Books less than 50y old

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@zerohedge Bitcoin contango getting some "mainstream" attention at last.
The %yield though is sticking at same levels since a while: i bet cryptodesks at IBs are hammering it using their negative funding rates.

https://t.co/tU6IUIBtEk

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

The huge #CarryTrade on #Bitcoin

In time of zero (when not negatives rates) #Contango on #BTC yields easily >10% annualized return: easy money?

First hint: #CME futures it is NOT deliverable: cash-settlement in this case makes the life harder for the arbitrageur.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

Thank you Bloomberg :-)

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

@UKtrendfollower Very true and imho also explains why systematic/algo trading is widely used trend following: it is hard for the human to stop-loss, it is even harder not to take-profit too early.
Let me also add this is "just" a risk-management rule: it is not a source of alpha itself.

[CommOddity @CommOddity]

What is the huge money mgmt/speculation business if not the negation (and the consequent struggle against) of the 1st Commandment?

#FirstTweet #Speculation #HedgeFund