Common Cents Program

A pre-college financial workshop

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

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[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Leverage, Leverage… Everywhere

Everywhere you turn some form of leverage is on offer to investors to juice equity returns. While it's hard to know it's limits, the build up creates increasingly larger downside risks in a reversal.

https://t.co/TAx0En6CtE

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Pending home sales still stuck in the mud ... -5.4% m/m in June

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

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[FT Economics @fteconomics]

The digital euro gets ready for beta testing - Martin Sandbu https://t.co/WNlXNUmge6

[Barron's @barronsonline]

U.S. Reignites Brazil Trade Battle With 25% Tariffs https://t.co/glH0NOeAnb

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

Gasoline front month future 📈

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Today’s US PPI inflation data follows yesterday’s softer-than-expected CPI, which helped moderate market expectations for Fed rate hikes and provided a boost to stocks.
Consistent with monthly readings of 0% for headline and 0.3% for core (down from 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively), these partial indicators of pipeline price pressures are expected by consensus to show the annual measure of headline PPI inflation moderating from 6.5% to 6.2%, while core is expected to increase from 4.9% to 5.1%.
#economy #inflation #markets #PPI

[CNBC @CNBC]

Mortgage rates rise to highest level in nearly a year, causing homebuyers to pause https://t.co/djdpjYxkzf

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

China’s annual growth slowed from 5% in the first quarter to 4.3% in the second, coming in below the consensus forecast and marking the lowest level in decades outside of Covid (FT chart below).
Growth for the first half of the year as a whole now stands at 4.7%.
Judging from the monthly data for June, also released today, the latest economic indicators confirm that the primary challenge for the Chinese economy remains firmly on the demand side— consumption and also non-state investment. Exports, meanwhile, remain a bright spot, as I noted in yesterday's post.
#China #economy #markets

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Very cool prices in the June CPI were across the board.

Core goods declined for the second straight month, down -0.09%

Housing was up just 0.12%

Core services ex-housing was -0.2%, the lowest since the lockdowns.

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

Growth in consumer prices cooled more than expected in June — albeit from an already high level — as drivers saw some relief at the pump. https://t.co/ZfT2qQQn8H

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Price Increases over last 7 years...
New Cars: +22%
Used Cars: +29%
Groceries: +33%
Shelter: +35%
Family Health Insurance: +38%
Restaurants: +39%
Transportation: +41%
Electricity: +44%
Gasoline: +49%
Auto Insurance: +51%
Gas Utilities: +60%
Home Prices: +60%
Fuel Oil: +60%
Dozen Eggs: +72%
Ground Beef: +79%
Coffee: +127%

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

Not what you want to hear from a tech company right now.... dragging the software sector down with it

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$IBM released preliminary Q2 results BELOW internal expectations as mainframe and software sales disappointed, with large deals failing to close on expected timelines.

CEO: “This quarter we faltered.”

Revenue: $17.2B vs $17.86B est. 🔴, up 1% YoY
Software: +5%
Consulting: flat, +1% cc
Infrastructure: -7%
Non-GAAP EPS: $2.93, up 5%
YTD free cash flow: $4.8B

CEO Arvind Krishna said: “In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases.”

He also said clients were distracted by “rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns,” and that IBM “did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.”

Full Q2 results are scheduled for July 22.

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

🛢️🛢️🛢️🚀🚀🚀

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

“No matter how you cut it, or what measure you want to use, inflation is up this year” Fed Governor Waller

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Waller: We’re past the point where we can attribute past increases to tariffs.

“No matter how you cut it, or what measure you want to use, inflation is up this year”

“Sometimes a big change in only one component of core prices can move the total significantly without reflecting broader pressures from escalating inflation, but that doesn't appear to be the case this time.”

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

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[Bloomberg @business]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers may need to raise rates in the near term if underlying inflation continues to signal broad price pressures. https://t.co/5HUqAi4T3O

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

The first trading day in Korea after the $26B ADR listing 📉

[Reuters Business @ReutersBiz]

SK Hynix shares fell more than 15%, its biggest one-day decline on record, as investors in Seoul cashed out of a scorching share price rally following its Nasdaq debut. Read more: https://t.co/uWN4un1Lt8

[Bloomberg @business]

After two years of almost uninterrupted downgrades, analysts are now raising European earnings estimates at the fastest pace since mid-2024 https://t.co/t5USOTAO44

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

The US stock market looks fairly stable, with a measure of overall index volatility remaining at low levels. But implied volatility in single-name stocks has surged to the highest in more than a year. The gap between the two measures has never been higher: Bloomberg's Simon White

[Common Cents Program @CommonCentsInfo]

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[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Best metric for the debt crisis unfolding in Japan is the gap between the Yen (black) and long-term yields (blue), which has never been wider. As long as Japan pretends debt isn't the problem and sees intervention as a good fix, this will only get worse...
https://t.co/c0kFK8YqeV

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Crack spreads (the per-barrel spread between crude and products) hit a new all-time high today, indicating massive margins for refiners.

per @bespokeinvest