Compo Capital

Liquid Investor | If you're confident which end of the bell curve you're on then your views are too close to consensus

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

Hint: it means that Hyperliquid already has more real users & organic volume/OI than Binance.

Binance faking liquidation data to understate reality is a widely held consensus view. But has anyone stopped to ask themselves, why?

There are two possible explanations as I see it:
1) liquidation data is fake, because volume & OI data must be real.
2) liquidation data is more likely real, implying volume & OI data is fake.

Both options acknowledge data is getting fudged somewhere - so the real question is - which side of the equation does Binance have more incentive to fudge?

After Aster made evident how easily Binance can generate $100b wash volume, how sure is everyone about the implicit assumption that volume & OI data must be real?

[10x Research @10xResearch]

Did Binance Just Socialize Hundreds of Millions in Losses—Triggering a New Wave of Altcoin Liquidations? What does it mean?

As we noted a week ago, during the $19.6 billion crypto liquidation event, long liquidations on Binance accounted for only 59% of all liquidations—far lower than the 90%+ seen on other exchanges.

This divergence highlights the role of ADL (Auto-Deleveraging), a risk mechanism employed by derivatives platforms such as Binance to protect the system when liquidations can’t be filled quickly enough during volatile market moves.

In a crash, ADL may automatically close or reduce profitable positions held by other traders, often market makers or market-neutral funds, to offset the losses of bankrupt accounts.

For hedge funds and market makers holding long-short positions across exchanges, this can unexpectedly break hedges and create sudden directional exposure, turning “neutral” books into loss-making ones.

That’s why we argued this crash was unlikely to produce a V-shaped rebound and would instead lead to further deleveraging, particularly in altcoins.

The 41% of short liquidations remains significant—it may take days or even weeks to understand how and at what levels Binance unwound positions.

Affected funds and market makers are now focused on tightening risk and reducing exposure, likely by selling altcoins rather than seeking fresh profit opportunities.

What does this mean for altcoins: https://t.co/08MJdyCFyY

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@trevor_flipper The relative mindshare is proportional to number of early users’ whose tax brackets changed

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@skewga_hyper Looked into agg DEX flows across all HYPE pairs over the summer, data unequivocally supported incl in RFS supply calc

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@Henrik_on_HL I am inherently adverse to zero-fee without nuanced understanding of how the littany of “zero-fee fees” (spreads/depth/funding/etc…) comp to fees on comp fee venues

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@JackFarley96 @michaeljburry Imagine $NVDA bc outsized index weightings. My personal issue w comps v. prior capex cycles is that AI capex is more similar to WW2 financing than prior business cycles

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@frankdegods Would be interesting to see how similar/different net buybacks relative to mc looks (gross buybacks/burns net emissions)

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@NMTD8 @TroveMarkets potentially borrowing from paradigms bag?

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

Hyperliquid.

[beef.hl HYPERMEAT @B33Fbanks]

HyperMeat x @mdudas & @CompoCapital of @6thManVentures 🥩
▫️6thMan background 1:25
▫️Hypurr purchase 2:13
▫️Custom trait 3:42
▫️Bobby and beef are sidelined 4:44
▫️HIP-3 5:55
▫️Value accrual meta 7:31
▫️CEX listings, @RobinhoodApp 8:18
▫️Builder codes, Crypto guidance 11:46
▫️Marketing, stablecoins $USDH, 10/10 13:31
▫️Team unlocks 20:01
▫️Moat, competition with CEX 23:05
▫️2026 outlook 27:42
▫️HyperEVM excitement 31:42
▫️Favorite cut of meat 32:49
$HYPE @HyperliquidX

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

Invest in teams who build DeFi primitives to hodl team unlocks

[Doola @0xdoola]

You thought the team would sell their unlocks? WRONG

You thought the team would collateralize their holdings on the EVM protocols and borrow against it ? WRONG

You think the team will borrow against their holdings on a natively Hypercore designed money market ? You might be correct

Hyperliquid

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

Have put the trade on many times myself, it crushes in a steady state market, but absolutely not a trade you want to keep on during periods of elevated volatility. Learned this lesson after vaporizing a kucoin account back in 2020

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

Feels more likely a liquid fund was giga short dino coins against crypto-linked equity longs and got a tap on the shoulder from risk manager

[Frank Chaparro @fintechfrank]

Note from Spencer Hallarn, our Global Head of OTC:

"As equity markets get smashed today, a rather peculiar rally in crypto especially centered in old school tokens: FIL, LTC, NEAR, DOT, ETC. One theory is this could be tied to Oct. 10 and maybe some exchange is repurchasing spot to make folks whole that had liquidations. These moves are unquestionably spot led, which isn't typical with pervasive negative funding across the board."

Have a great weekend.

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@0xCryptoSam Throw in a large serving of HYPE deltas and you’ve described my pa

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@Matt_Hougan Checking the prospectus for management/executive compensation plan will tell you if management is incentivized to do anything hard

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@amritwt No he didn’t - option premiums are not reported, the dollar value is 100*contracts*strike price

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

So if the dodgers win…Ohtani’s translator is the real mvp, right?

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

indubitably

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@taran business is booming

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@Xeer @monad @Plasma Still forming my view, handful of threads I’ve seen to this effect are my best guess currently https://t.co/JeiKhOTIGn

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@cainosullivan Would greatly appreciate any form of this historical data you could share. very l strong intuition that HLP 10x-25x lev would be among most attractive all weather asset in crypto

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@blknoiz06

[Compo Capital @CompoCapital]

@laevitas1 @Neda4_ Read through is MMs still at stand still w binance RE: binance settlement => finding leverage elsewhere