"When these new businesses come in, there are huge advantages for the early birds. And when you're an early bird, there's a model I call 'surfing' - when a surfer gets up and catches the wave and just stays there, he can go a long, long time." #CharlieMunger#CompoundAndSurf
@the_zack_zhu@ReturnsJourney I have been a fan of your account and would hope to remain so. But when people start talking about record breaking returns and selling a substack on Twitter, the grift is generally as consistent as gravity.
@ReturnsJourney@the_zack_zhu Very easy to forge stuff with AI now. Occam’s razor: 50% decade long compounders don’t do $10 a month substacks and promote them on Twitter.
@the_zack_zhu Another grifter. Anyone compounding at 50% for 8 years a.) would be the greatest investor on the planet and b.) doesn’t need $10 a month substack subscribers. They would never even think to do it. It’s a shame because I liked this account.
@the_zack_zhu I understand the spreadsheet math. And maybe you’ll be right. But you can’t look at current spreadsheet math and say a business is bad when it’s building something for 3-5 years from now. Suboptimal way to analyze and invest.
@the_zack_zhu For capital intensive businesses, you can’t look at returns on capital while the company is still building. Once they complete the major growth phase (another few years), if they’re still making no money, then we can say you were right. But you can’t call the game at halftime
@the_zack_zhu What matters is - will that spend ultimately create offerings that are material differentiators. If it doesn’t, of course it’s bad. But if it does, and it wins a ton of sticky repeat customers who grow their spend, future returns will look excellent, even if lower than Korea
@the_zack_zhu I think you’re misunderstanding the concept of capital intensity. Simply because something is “hard” and “spending a lot of money” does not make it a bad thing. Physical, difficult to replicate logistics networks are some of the most valuable assets in the world.
@the_zack_zhu Got it. Generally if something(s) can be a huge differentiator in a huge addressable market, that’s a huge opportunity. I’m still not following how you can think these things could be huge differentiators, which could drive huge share gains if true, but still call it a disaster
@the_zack_zhu Literally in this post that I replied to, above:
“Dawn delivery could be a huge differentiator for Coupang”
“Delivering fresh and frozen food could be a huge differentiator for Coupang”
“I think we could see Coupang Taiwan grow considerably in 2027”
This is what bulls say
@weeklyshowpod@AbdulElSayed Can someone explain how and when @weeklyshowpod@jonstewart became an Iranian / Qatari propaganda outlet. Mamdani, this guy. Endless softball questions and kowtowing to these America hating jihadists. I don’t get it. What happened to him.