@DeepIceValue Thanks to the recent market correction, $NVDA trailing P/E ratio has compressed to around 23.6x. This is remarkably reasonable for a business projecting 70% revenue growth. Are you in?
Bank of America is warning clients about a market collapse because margin debt growth plunged from 53.7% to 31.4% in September.
They claim 2000, 2007, and 2021 prove this is the absolute top.
Once again, another giant trying to predict the next crash.
Having invested through dot-com, the financial crisis, the oil crisis, and Covid, I lost count of how many corrections I have seen. This is just retrospective data-fitting to stay relevant. I filter it out.
My 20-year plan is simple, always be structurally ready for a crash, but never bet money or alter positions based on predictions of what happens in 1 week, 1 month, or 6 months.
Compounding requires ignoring the casino noise.
Do you think margin debt is a reliable crash indicator, or just more noise? How do you prepare your portfolio for the unknown unknowns?
It often takes just 19 days for fear to climb to the top but over 100 days before the market calms down again. Do investors underestimate how long it takes for the market to calm down again?
*Portfolio The Monthly Compounder from 29 th sept 2026 (the start) -1,5%
*SP500 from 29th sept. -2,9%
*Nasdaq from 29th sept. -11,2%
I don’t like to brag, because I have seen this before. However, it gets to me that we might be experiencing a shift from index fund investing to active investing.
I am thinking about actively managed funds here.
Individual stock picking beats fund anytime, if youre good at it…
1. Stay with your plan!
2. Keep your cool.
3. Kill your feelings and be objective!