WI Conservatives

Conservative common sense and insider takes from the Badger State 🧀🐘🗽

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Now that Crowley won, let's revisit this Aug. 6 post because this is what happened last night. Polling had Hong up by ~20; her support was clearly much softer than polls saw. The Dem turnout machine is formidable and got people to show up for Crowley. Hong should have avoided the national media appearances because those revealed her weaknesses and reinforced fears that she was weak - so much so that she only turned in 44% in Dane County to Crowley's 37% and she lost Milwaukee County.

State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +22
Public Policy Polling: 📷 Hong +18
Marquette University: 📷 Hong +29
Public Policy Polling: 📷 Hong +20

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Is this the path to a Hong collapse on Aug. 11?
🔵Her backtracking on numerous past statements (particularly softening on police) may cost her the image of a truth-telling, unafraid progressive reformer and with it, part of her progressive base
🔵Wide publicity for some of her more wackadoo stuff, like wanting to abolish Thanksgiving, employing a porn star, and championing a "hooker's bill of rights" may turn off less extreme elements of her progressive base
🔵Those weird notes might also make her look clownish to some progressives, who strongly believe that neither party is being serious enough about serious problems and want to focus on economic issues
🔵TV appearances where the mask is off and her unpreparedness for the limelight do not help her with anyone and may further erode progressive faith that she is what she had been presenting
🔵Many early votes are locked in, but there is still a Dem turnout machine that will try to propel voters to the polls for Crowley. The fog of war prevents us from knowing exactly what's going on.
...We will see how durable her support is on August 11.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

I’ve heard CERS is suddenly worried about Binsfeld too. This is Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu’s district, who brags about how lazy he is not working his district. He put out a press release begging Madison groups to hire him because he lives in Madison now. He has failed to get hired cleaning the floors at Monona Terrace.

[Jason Calvi @JasonCalvi]

NEW: GOP pulling broadcast $ out of swing district & putting into a GOP stronghold, sources tell me.

-Removing $ from 21th Wisconsin Senate district, held by GOP. In 2024, VP Harris won it by +1.3.

-Adding $ to the 9th. In 2024, Pres. Trump won it by +15.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@ScottJe90490458 @joeminocqua @BillMcCoshen11 You gents are the sherpas of statistics and the paragons of polling. Thanks.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

.@joeminocqua @BillMcCoshen11 poll interpretations are requested 🙏🏻

[joe handrick @joeminocqua]

For a few cycles now I have noted that (unlike the old days) GOP needs higher turnout to win - the closer to presidential the better.

This poll says tiffany does better among all voters than among the smaller group of likely voters. This would seem to reaffirm that pattern. GOP needs to crank up the turnout and get those 2024 Trump voters out.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

I understand polling has to simplify the questions, but this is nonetheless a false dichotomy.

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Voters remain about evenly divided on a desire for more services with higher taxes to pay for them (supported by 47%), or a preference for fewer services from government but lower taxes (supported by 52%). #mulawpoll

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@sheilapeachy @PolitiFact Sadly, a very small group cares only about that and they could determine the race if they're gonna be gullible suckers.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Not great. Could this have to do with the false ads Crowley is running that claim Tiffany voted against releasing the Epstein files? (A claim @PolitiFact just called false)

[MULawPoll @MULawPoll]

Among likely voters, Republican support for Tiffany slipped from 95% in September to 92% in October, while Democratic support for Crowley rose from 96% to 98%. #mulawpoll

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Crowley "pursued Democratic priorities."
BIG IF TRUE 🤡
Maybe the other headline should be "Tiffany pursued Republican priorities."

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Waiting with bated breath for @journalsentinel to do a huffy puffy story about Crowley getting $5.5 million from billionaire tech bro Reid Hoffman, who had sleepovers at Epstein's properties. LOL

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

We all like grandiose pronouncements to accompany raw numbers, but I said before and I still believe Republicans should be cautious about overcelebrating the early vote numbers. Waukesha up, Dane down seems good but we won't know what's what until the night of Nov. 3 (or later if Milwaukee screws it up again). @joeminocqua https://t.co/aSnn6OZttE

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Of course it’s false. But this won’t stop the self-loathing, always-online wackos who revel in being mere vehicles for leftist disinformation.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

Here’s what would happen:
🔵Public option would let able bodied adults buy into BadgerCare that was intended for elderly, blind and disabled (EBD) and low-income.
🔵Private insurance would be crowded out and leave many WI markets with only the public option.
🔵Since Medicaid only reimburses doctors/hospitals about 2/3 what private insurance does, many providers would become insolvent and slash staff and services, starting with rural hospitals that are already on the verge of insolvency.
🔵Healthcare would be scarcer with longer wait times. Looming physician and nursing shortages would worsen.
🔵More govt funding would be called for, likely in the billions per year.
🔵Prices for everyone on individual and employer sponsored plans would soar as providers struggle to stay afloat and shift costs onto private plans.
That’s what Crowley doesn’t want to elaborate on.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

That's because there are no issues related to the office. It stamps travel documents.

FWIW, DPI should be also be reduced to a meaningless constitutional relic, just like SOS and Treasurer.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

This article cites some actual quacks running in deep blue districts, but those are buried. Instead, the article leads with nothingburger nontroversies in tight districts. The article is politically motivated, not an actual attempt at journalism. https://t.co/luoPiGifSx

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@doodoo19330418 Letting billionaire funded interest groups into election machinery is for lunatics. But you libs have no actual principles so go on.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

In attempting to come across as moderate, and it was rough to watch, Crowley did nothing to motivate progressives or persuade inds. Tiffany didn't turn away his base and came across as the kind of level-headed, genuine person Wisconsin voters prefer as governor. Tiffany dominates tonight.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

I'll try to be objective. This debate is not going well for David Crowley. He's stammering, dodging questions, raising his voice, and missing the mark on his arguments. @TomTiffanyWI is showing stability, dignity, and significant expertise on policy issues. As an example, any Democrat should ace the abortion question. David biffed it hard.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@JordanRedd47861 @TomTiffanyWI I don’t follow, I lead.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

I'll try to be objective. This debate is not going well for David Crowley. He's stammering, dodging questions, raising his voice, and missing the mark on his arguments. @TomTiffanyWI is showing stability, dignity, and significant expertise on policy issues. As an example, any Democrat should ace the abortion question. David biffed it hard.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

So I hear: media thought both candidates were going to be available in spin room after debate. Crowley did not show up. Ben Wikler was his surrogate (as he was in 2022). @TomTiffanyWI showed up to answer questions and clarify positions.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@agoodforbetter You don’t know a damn thing about this policy area. The ACA caused skyrocketing premiums. Subsidies cover them up and make costs worse. Tiffany took the right vote, but Democrats have always protected hospital monopolies as they raise prices while scamming patients.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@Kamaristar3 @TomTiffanyWI Rocking back and forth yammering out conspiracy theories is a key part of Crowley’s message. It’s not the stuff of winning campaigns.

[WI Conservatives @ConservativesWi]

@tlcinwi @TomTiffanyWI Ok, so you think a deranged quack can kill a baby as it’s coming down the birth canal. Just ducking say it. It’s an opinion. It’s sociopathic, but it’s an opinion.