Force Majeure

Mean-reversion enthusiast, reader of medium length books, optimist, valuation pragmatist

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@Divergent7651 @roojoo3 But… pricing power coming out of their ears (small % of project cost) so they effectively pass on input costs and retain the margin when things normalize. Very similar for paint names and TiO2

[Jason Lewris @jasonlewris]

Currently ranked #3 in Florida on the motivated seller index.

Original ask: $2,700,000
Current ask: $1,100,000

Total markdown: $1,600,000

Tried the ole list, de-list, re-list trick - didn't work.

Original purchase price? $775,000 in 2012.

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@glocalinvestor @steady_profits Don’t something like 80% or 90% of AI cloud revenues come from customers using open source models? Don’t know how to square that with over reliance on OpenAI (and I’m GOOGL > MSFT guy personally)

[Jeremy Horpedahl 🥚📉 @jmhorp]

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

[one dozen rats at a keyboard @PanasonicDX4500]

“We gave a gun to a bunch of guys who watched a recruitment ad during a football game and signed up for a 47 day orientation. Please react very calmly when they’re shouting at you because they might get scared and start shooting off under pressure. They are saving our America.”

[Liam Nissan™ @theliamnissan]

Wow, DOGE uncovered evidence of a single African immigrant who received over $38 BILLION from the United States Government over the last ten years. I can't wait to find out who it was

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@alternateshots @jamierkennedy The craziest part is that if you to play that hole today and hit it exactly where Phil did, you’re actually in the middle of the fwy on #11 East, with a great angle to green / no tree trouble.

Merch tent was up on 11 that week and it changed everything

[Hannah Cox @HannahDCox]

It actually is crazy that Argentina elected a libertarian to save them from decades of Peronism.

And then the US, after building the greatest country ever known to man on the principles of libertarianism, elected a Peronist.

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@MikeZaccardi I love what you do, to be clear, but trying to squeeze subscription $$ out of this and calling it exclusive doesn’t reflect well on you.

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@MikeZaccardi Exclusive charts? The one’s you rip from sell-side reports that you access via your retail broker account? The ones that any professional has access to in their inbox every morning but are clearly told not to redistribute???

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@qcapital2020 “Baby who’s about to make a mess in diaper” type of untrustworthy

Except the diaper in this case = the world we all live in

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@NormMacDonaldsG @BosCityJMJ @stacycay @_glorianas I think *they* are terrible people at their core as well. “Believing in something” isn’t an excuse for terrible policies and unrealistic ideological purity tests that prevent any actual progress for occurring. Stop trying to prove yourself right and start thinking for yourself

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@NormMacDonaldsG @BosCityJMJ @stacycay @_glorianas I have opinions on right vs wrong, they just mostly tend to land in between 2 extremes that don’t represent me at all. The fact that I’m not allowed to feel that way in your version of this world is a massive problem. How about the right wingers that also stand for “something”?

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@BosCityJMJ @stacycay @_glorianas My only political allegiance is to market prices and time-series data. I don’t vote, and I think all of you on the far right and the far left are just so goddamn silly. Get a grip and stop fucking everything up for the 60% of us that live between your two cults

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@BosCityJMJ @stacycay @_glorianas Keep coping. People who make politics part of their identity are not only pathetic but also wind up looking stupid trying to fit square pegs into round holes. Wish you the best, hopefully you find some peace and enough success in life to get over the bitterness that drives you

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@stacycay @_glorianas Last word in that sentence might require some air quotes around it…

[Force Majeure @Contra_Martinez]

@retaox Possibly ABBV. Post Humira rolling off can reliably bank HSD sales / LDD EPS… a few things break right in psychiatric or tumors and EPS can easily be MDD.

*IMO* multiple today is too cheap either way, trades ~13x consensus ‘26 estimates

[Clifford Asness @CliffordAsness]

Many seem to defend tariffs with the line of reasoning “the world is not coming to an end you’re being hysterical.”

Let’s be clear. That’s true (not the hysteria part). The US economy, companies, and citizens are resilient and will adapt.

It’ll just be worse. The job is to make it better. And instead it will be worse.

[Stacy Cay @stacycay]

We’ve done this mass tariff thing 3 times in American history.

1828, 1930, 2025.

All spaced about 100 years apart because everyone who remembers the last one needs to be dead for the next one to happen.

The last two caused a depression. I hope this one makes us rich tho.