Conviction Trades

Market commentary | High-conviction setups | Risk first | Process over noise

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Conviction Trades is live

I’ll be sharing:

• High-conviction trade ideas
• Clean chart setups
• Market commentary
• Risk-focused thinking
• Lessons in execution & psychology
No noise. No fake guru nonsense. Just process.
If you value clear thinking in markets, follow along

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

GBPAUD (Long) – Frankfurt/London Session

As flagged in my preliminary assessment, this ended up being the only new trade in the Frankfurt/London basket.

The underlying idea hasn't changed from the Asia entry.

The Asia entry relied on that handover confluence, and after price drifted lower into London, I was presented with the opportunity to add a second long from a better location using exactly the same logic.

The framework remains straightforward:

• The larger move has transitioned to neutral rather than continuing lower.
• Session handover statistics support the long.
• London offered improved pricing compared to the Asia entry.

The objective also remains unchanged: target the midpoint of the larger external bearish leg, rather than expecting a complete trend reversal.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #GBPAUD

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Friday Frankfurt/London – Preliminary Assessment

Asia wasn't particularly kind to the portfolio.

CHFJPY (short) managed to strengthen slightly, but both GBPNZD (long) and the new GBPAUD (long) drifted against me. That's all part of the game when you're carrying positions between sessions. Floating P/L is just that — floating.

Going into Frankfurt/London, every open trade has at least some degree of vulnerability, so the focus is on whether the next session strengthens or weakens the original thesis.

At this stage I'm looking to add to the GBPAUD long.

I'm also watching a few other candidates:

• EURCAD (Long)
• EURCHF (Long)
• GBPJPY

Current positions

Monday
• CHFJPY (Short) – Asia (+1.2R floating)
• CHFJPY (Short) – New York (+1.2R floating)

Thursday
• GBPNZD (Long) – Frankfurt/London (+0.55R floating)

Friday
• GBPAUD (Long) – Asia (-0.58R floating)

Frankfurt/London candidates
• GBPAUD (Long)

• Watching: EURCAD (Long), EURCHF (Long) & GBPJPY

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

GBPAUD (Long) – Asia Session

This one is a little different from some of the recent trades.

Australian employment data came in stronger than expected yesterday, but the move failed to generate any meaningful bearish extension. Instead of accelerating lower, price slowed and transitioned into a neutral framework, with both highs and lows being traded.

Once that shift occurred, the decision became much simpler.

In a neutral framework, the edge comes from the session handover statistics, and today's Asia handover provided the backing needed to take the long.

We're still trading against the broader external bearish leg, so this isn't a trade I'm expecting to run forever.

The objective is simply the mid-point of that external bearish leg, which offers a clean risk-to-reward profile without asking price to do anything extraordinary.

It's another example of how the framework dictates the trade:

• Strong directional framework → trade the structure.
• Neutral framework → let the session handover edge do the heavy lifting.

Small adjustments like this have become an increasingly important part of my process over the past couple of weeks.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #GBPAUD

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Friday Asia Session Preview

New York drifted a little against the portfolio, but nothing dramatic.

CHFJPY (short) gave back some of its gains, while GBPNZD (long) has continued to hold up well.

One position I did close was USDCAD (short) ahead of rollover.

This highlights another important part of my process.

Once a trade reaches rollover, a re-entry only has to clear the remaining framework hurdles.

In this case, the framework itself shifted overnight.

What began as a location-driven short transitioned into a neutral framework, meaning location was no longer the test. The new hurdle became session handover confluence, and the trade simply didn't pass that test.

Rather than forcing a re-entry because I still liked the original idea, I accepted the small loss and moved on.

That's exactly why I reassess every position at rollover instead of automatically carrying it forward.

Today's Asia session trade:

• GBPAUD (Long)

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #RiskManagement #GBPAUD

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

USDCAD (Short) – New York Session

USDCAD ended up being the only trade that qualified for my New York basket.

It wasn't the most straightforward setup, but that's exactly why I liked it—it required working through the evidence rather than forcing a bias.

Here's the thought process:

1. Higher-timeframe location

Price had pushed deep into the premium area of the higher-timeframe range, putting it in a location where I'm naturally more interested in shorts than longs.

2. A bearish story was beginning to emerge

After the rally, we started seeing a sustained bearish leg develop, suggesting buyers were beginning to lose control.

3. The key question

The bearish move during Asia failed to break the previous internal swing low, so conviction wasn't quite there yet.

What I was watching very closely into New York was whether price would take the internal swing high before entry.

Had that happened, I would've stood aside.

Instead, price manipulated that level without reclaiming it, which kept the bearish thesis intact and allowed the short to remain valid.

From there, the checklist looked like this:

• Premium higher-timeframe location.
• Bearish intention passed (although only marginally).
• Price slowed into the execution area.
• Multiple higher-timeframe legs provided locational confluence.
• Session handover wasn't the deciding factor here—the location did the heavy lifting, with the handover statistics remaining broadly neutral.

I'm aiming for the full target on this one.

Not every trade has perfect confluence across every category. The important part is understanding which factors matter most for that specific setup, and making sure the overall thesis still stacks up before pulling the trigger.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #USDCAD #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Thursday New York Session Update

After the final review, only USDCAD (short) made the cut for the New York session basket.

Another milestone today was USDCHF (long), which extended beyond my target before being closed for +3.33R.

That result puts me comfortably ahead for the week, and there's still a healthy amount of floating profit sitting in the portfolio searching for larger targets.

That's the balancing act from here.

The temptation is to start thinking about what those floating positions could become. But floating profit isn't realised profit.

The job now is simply to stay disciplined, keep following the process, and let the market decide how much of those gains it wants to give me.

One good day doesn't change the plan, just as one bad day shouldn't either.

Patience is often the hardest part of trading.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #RiskManagement #USDCAD

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Thursday New York Session – Preliminary Assessment

London has been unambiguously good for the portfolio.

Everything moved in the right direction, with floating profits increasing across the board. The standout is USDCHF (long), which has now reached its target and will be closed for the session.

Current portfolio:

✅ CHFJPY (short) x2 — both around +1.55R floating

✅ USDCHF (long) — target reached (~+2.94R)

✅ GBPNZD (long) — around +1R floating

At this stage, I'm not expecting any New York entries.

There are a handful of pairs I'm watching closely into the final assessment:

• AUDCAD (Long)
• AUDUSD (Long watch)
• EURCAD (Short)
• USDCAD (Short)

The issue is that several of them are showing mixed signals. If those conflicting signals resolve before New York opens, there could still be an opportunity. If not, I'll happily sit on my hands.

One final note: my EUR restriction remains in place. Following my probability assessment ahead of today's ECB decision, I'm only interested in EUR shorts into New York while the bearish rates skew remains in play.

Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't force.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Thursday New York Session – Preliminary Assessment

London has been unambiguously good for the portfolio.

Everything moved in the right direction, with floating profits increasing across the board. The standout is USDCHF (long), which has now reached its target and will be closed for the session.

Current portfolio:

✅ CHFJPY (short) x2 — both around +1.55R floating

✅ USDCHF (long) — target reached (~+2.94R)

✅ GBPNZD (long) — around +1R floating

At this stage, I'm not expecting any New York entries.

There are a handful of pairs I'm watching closely into the final assessment:

• AUDCAD (Long)
• AUDUSD (Long watch)
• EURCAD (Short)
• USDCAD (Short)

The issue is that several of them are showing mixed signals. If those conflicting signals resolve before New York opens, there could still be an opportunity. If not, I'll happily sit on my hands.

One final note: my EUR restriction remains in place. Following my probability assessment ahead of today's ECB decision, I'm only interested in EUR shorts into New York while the bearish rates skew remains in play.

Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't force.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

GBPNZD (Long) – Frankfurt/London Session

GBPNZD is the only new addition to today's Frankfurt/London basket.

This one is interesting because it highlights one of the refinements I've made to my framework this week.

On the higher timeframe we're sitting roughly in the middle of the broader range—not normally where I'd be looking for fresh longs. But zooming into the execution timeframe tells a different story.

We have:

• A sustained bullish leg that's cleared the previous internal swing high.
• Tradable bullish structure built along the way.
• A larger external bearish leg providing the upside objective.
The catch is that the entry is aggressively positioned relative to the lower-timeframe external bullish leg.

That's exactly the type of setup where I've raised the bar.

Rather than relying on location alone, I now require full session handover backing before taking these more aggressive entries. Today's statistics met that requirement, giving me confidence to reference the internal leg as locational justification.

The target is the mid-point of the larger higher-timeframe bearish leg, giving the trade a clean objective while staying consistent with the framework.

Every refinement is aimed at making the process more selective—not by adding complexity, but by demanding stronger confluence where the risk profile calls for it.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #GBPNZD #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Thursday Frankfurt/London Session Preview

Asia was more of a drift than a trend today.

AUDCAD (short) was the main casualty after Australian employment data disrupted the move. That's part of the game. I don't spend a lot of time trying to model every data release—I mainly focus on the events that consistently have the biggest impact on my frameworks: CPI, interest rate decisions and NFP.

I also closed GBPCAD (short) for a small +0.12R gain ahead of Frankfurt/London. It was a neutral framework trade that hadn't really broken out, and importantly it doesn't have full session handover backing into the next session. Rather than forcing it, I'd rather bank the small gain and move on.

Current portfolio:

✅ CHFJPY (short) x2 — both continuing to track well (~+1.15R floating)

✅ USDCHF (long) — still progressing nicely (~+1.6R floating)

The Frankfurt/London basket is very selective today with just one new position:

• GBPNZD (Long)

Looking further ahead, my probability assessment for today's ECB decision still has me restricting myself to EUR shorts only going into New York, reflecting the bearish skew heading into the announcement.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #RiskManagement #GBPNZD

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

GBPCAD (Short) – Asia Session

I'm back on the short side of GBPCAD after rotating out of yesterday's long following the weaker-than-expected UK CPI release.

This is a very different setup to yesterday's trade.

We're now operating in a neutral price delivery framework, which means the trade is driven almost entirely by the session handover statistics rather than any strong directional price delivery.

Interestingly, this is the same framework that produced last Monday's successful GBPCAD short, so we'll see if history rhymes.

The checklist is straightforward:

• Trading from a favourable higher-timeframe location.
• Neutral price delivery means session handover confluence becomes the primary edge.
• Full TP remains the objective rather than managing out early.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #GBPCAD #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

AUDCAD (Short) Update

The original short idea didn't quite meet my rollover requirements, so I exited the position at breakeven before the daily rollover.

As per the rules, I then reassessed the setup after rollover rather than simply holding it.

The re-entry came at a slightly worse price.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #AUDCAD #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Thursday Asia – Session Preview

New York was a step in the right direction.

The standout result was EURCHF (Long), which extended beyond its original target before I exited it for +2.64R. That's now another strong winner banked for the week.

There were a few smaller losses that took some shine off the session, but overall the portfolio improved as CHF weakened across the board.

Current scoreboard:

✅ EURCHF (Long) +2.64R
✅ USDCAD (Long) +1.44R
✅ NZDUSD (Short) +0.24R

Live positions:
• CHFJPY (Short) (Monday Asia) +1.74R floating
• CHFJPY (Short) (Monday New York) +1.74R floating
• USDCHF (Long) +2.3R floating and closing in on target
• AUDCAD (Short) re-entered after the rollover exit

Thursday's Asia basket is simple:

✅ GBPCAD (Short)

Looking further ahead, my probability of surprise direction assessment for today's ECB decision continues to favour a bearish skew for EUR rates. As a result, I'll be restricting myself to EUR shorts only going into the New York session.

Plenty still floating, so nothing is guaranteed—but overall the portfolio is in a much healthier position than it was 24 hours ago.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #EUR #CHF #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Upcoming ECB rate decision looks like a hold/guidance event.

ECB Main Refinancing Rate
Forecast: 2.40%
Previous: 2.40%

The ECB already delivered the prior move from 2.15% to 2.40%, so the question now is whether that hike was a one-off adjustment or whether the ECB keeps further tightening risk alive.

My read:

Base case: EUR-neutral to mildly bearish.

The hold is already priced, so EUR probably needs a genuinely hawkish statement or press conference to rally cleanly.

Bullish EUR trigger:
Hold at 2.40% + sticky inflation/wage pressure, restrictive policy language, and further tightening risk kept alive.

Bearish EUR trigger:
Hold at 2.40% + “enough for now” tone, growth concern, inflation confidence, or a comfortable pause message.

Probability-wise:
Bullish EUR outcome: 30–35%
Bearish / neutral-to-soft EUR outcome: 65–70%

So unless the ECB clearly leans hawkish, EUR looks vulnerable to a choppy-to-soft reaction.

Trading reflection:

Going into tomorrow’s New York session, I’ll likely restrict myself to EUR shorts only rather than looking for EUR longs ahead of a guidance-heavy event.

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

GBPJPY (Short) – New York Session

This trade highlights how my framework has evolved over the past couple of sessions.

Yesterday I attempted a GBPJPY short that ultimately failed. Looking back, it relied too heavily on the higher-timeframe external leg without enough additional evidence.

Today's setup was different.

Price delivery had transitioned from a strong bullish channel into relatively neutral price delivery. In those conditions, the session handover statistics become much more influential in the decision-making process.

The trade had supportive session handover confluence, giving me confidence to execute despite price no longer offering a strong directional edge on its own.

The objective is straightforward: target the midpoint of the higher-timeframe range, providing a sensible risk-to-reward profile without needing to call a complete reversal.

One of the biggest lessons from this week has been knowing when session statistics should matter more.

• Strong price delivery → let price lead.
• Neutral price delivery → lean more heavily on the session handover data.
• Aggressively positioned lower-timeframe trades using external legs → require both.

That distinction is becoming one of the key improvements to the framework.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #GBPJPY #TradingJournal #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

AUDJPY (Short) – New York Session

This trade is another good example of the refinement I've made to my execution process this week.

On the surface, it looks like an aggressive short. Price is positioned high within the higher timeframe range, but the lower timeframe is already well advanced. In the past I may have taken this purely because of the external bullish leg.

Now, I want more than that.

This setup ticked every box:

✅ Bearish fractal reversal.
✅ Lack of bullish extension followed by an internal bearish break, signalling intention.
✅ Price slowed into location before the reversal.
✅ Supportive session handover confluence, giving me confidence to reference the external bullish leg despite the aggressive lower-timeframe positioning.

The target is deliberately conservative—around the midpoint of the higher-timeframe range—which provides an attractive risk/reward profile without needing to predict a complete reversal.

One of the biggest changes to my process this week has been raising the bar for these "aggressively positioned" setups. If I'm leaning on an external higher-timeframe leg for location, I now want at least some session handover support before taking the trade.

Price delivery remains the primary decision-maker. The session statistics simply provide another layer of evidence when the location isn't perfect.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #AUDJPY #TradingJournal #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

AUDCAD (Short) – New York Session

This was one of the more interesting trades from today's New York basket because it reflects a refinement I've made to my process this week.

On the lower timeframe, the trade was aggressively positioned. On price delivery alone, that would normally make me cautious about leaning on the higher timeframe external leg for justification.

This time, however, there was supportive session handover confluence.

We had:

• A clear fractal reversal formation.
• Lack of bullish extension followed by bearish internal breaks.
• Session handover statistics supporting the short.

That combination gave me enough confidence to reference the external bullish leg as the locational justification, despite the aggressive lower timeframe positioning.

Last week's AUDCAD shorts worked well, but this week's version comes with a higher bar. One of the lessons from Tuesday's losing Asia/London baskets was that when I'm relying heavily on an external leg, I want the session handover statistics contributing to the thesis—not fighting against it.

Price delivery remains the foundation of the strategy. Session statistics aren't there to replace it, but in more aggressive locations they can provide the additional evidence needed to justify taking the trade.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #AUDCAD #TradingJournal #RiskManagement

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

Wednesday New York – Preview

London was a mixed session for the portfolio. A few positions didn't survive the aftermath of the UK CPI release, although the portfolio as a whole is still floating in profit.

The softer-than-expected UK CPI likely played a significant role. My GBP longs came under pressure:

❌ GBPCAD (Long) -1R
❌ GBPCHF (Long) -1R
❌ GBPCHF (Long) (Asia) closed early for -0.4R after the underlying thesis weakened.

Rather than simply absorbing the losses, I rotated with the information the market was providing. GBP now looks materially weaker than it did this morning, so the New York basket introduces a GBPJPY (Short).

I also became less comfortable with my CAD exposure. That led me to lock in USDCAD (Long) for +1.44R, while exiting CADJPY (Short) for a small -0.15R loss. The New York basket rotates that exposure through an AUDCAD (Short) instead.

Final New York basket:

✅ AUDCAD (Short)
✅ AUDJPY (Short)
✅ GBPJPY (Short)

Meanwhile, the earlier positions continue to do the heavy lifting:

• CHFJPY (Short) (Monday Asia & Monday New York) both continue to track well at around +0.9R floating.
• EURCHF (Long) remains around +0.9R floating.
• USDCHF (Long) continues to hold around +1.3R.
• NZDUSD (Short) is also working, floating around +0.25R.

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #RiskManagement #AUDCAD #AUDJPY #GBPJPY

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

NZDUSD (Short) – Wednesday Frankfurt/London

This trade is a good example of where my framework still leans heavily on the session handover statistics.

Price delivery at the entry was largely neutral. There wasn't enough directional conviction to justify a trade on price action alone, so this became a full lean on the historical session behaviour.

What supported the entry:

✅ Neutral price delivery (not fighting strong momentum)
✅ Strong session handover confluence for this window
✅ Room to target the full session objective

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #NZDUSD #NZD #USD

[Conviction Trades @ConvictionTRDR]

GBPCHF (Long) – Additional Frankfurt/London Entry

This was an additional position added to the existing Asia trade rather than a fresh idea.

The thesis hadn't really changed.

Price delivery was still fairly neutral, so this wasn't a trade driven by aggressive momentum. Instead, it leaned heavily on the session handover statistics, which continue to show a meaningful edge for GBPCHF longs during this window.

The Frankfurt/London entry was taken on exactly the same basis as the Asia entry:

✅ Neutral price delivery
✅ Strong session handover confluence
✅ Aligned with my bullish UK CPI probability assessment

#Forex #Trading #PriceAction #TradingJournal #GBPCHF #GBP #CHF