$RKLB
Neutron's first launch moves to 2027. Disappointing but not surprising, I went through Beck's update video and the context matters.
What happened: during curing, voids (tiny air pockets) formed in the thicker carbon sections of a new stage 1 propellant dome. That doesn't mean it would have failed in flight, but Rocket Lab only flies with proper margins. As Beck put it: "Possible success isn't our standard."
The fix is already validated: the aft dome built with the updated process is their highest-quality composite dome to date.
What comes next:
1. Build the new forward dome on the AFP machine (already underway)
2. Cure it and inspect it with ultrasonic testing
3. Assemble the full first stage, then run the hydrostatic and cryo test campaigns
Steps 1 and 2 should be done before Q1, step 3 within Q1. Only then will they share a new launch date, with regular progress updates on their website and socials until then. Beck: "I'd rather show you real-time progress than give you a date that I might have to walk back."
Keep in mind:
- Delays are the norm for new rockets. Falcon 9, New Glenn, Vulcan and Ariane 6 all flew well after their original targets.
- Neutron is the largest carbon composite rocket ever built. Inventing new manufacturing processes takes time now but pays off at scale.
- Rockets #2 and #3 are already in production before flight 1.
And Rocket Lab is not only Neutron. Electron is nearing its 100th launch, just signed its largest commercial deal ever (20 launches for Synspective), and backlog stood at $2.36B last quarter. Beck also says new Neutron contracts will be announced soon.
A reliable rocket beats an early one. Judge Neutron by flight 10, not flight 1.
@RKLBMan I think this is not a surprise so its actually smart to take it out of the table now and not when we find some relief and put the stock down again.
Every company goes through investor sentiment resets on its way up. It's inevitable, and you have to go through it to get exceptional returns. That's what we're living through with $ASTS right now: fear of fierce competition from $SPCX , plus execution and communication issues from management.
But if your conviction still holds, retail investors have one real edge in the market: we can hold for as long as it takes.
There's no 100-bagger that didn't drop 80% along the way.