Copezilla

Top 0.5% Polymarket trader,
Deepdives and writing about whatever moves these markets.
No financial advice

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

https://t.co/Cj9HbYYiPa

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@mahera777 @PolymarketTrade Nice, really happy for you🍻. For me best month so far

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@HenrikZeberg Insane...they changed the rules so that they can "crime" that higher with just 4% float🫣

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@Atlantislq Wow, that's impressive. Even though we're only halfway through the month, things are looking good for me. It's always nice to see someone who's accomplished even more... it's a great motivator! You deserve it!

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@ChaosXBT_ Thanks bro🫡

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

Great start of the week on Polymarket 🤩. Hope yours is also great🤗

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@LolakisPM 🔥🔥🔥 great work

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade 100% great start🍻

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Awesome🤩

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@MuddyRC @evaxbt_ @pear_protocol SOL sub 40$ this year.

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@cryptomanran That did not age well😅

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@MuddyRC @PolymarketTrade Also good week

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

https://t.co/fePoQ8S8mb

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

The US just pulled Anthropic's two best models offline, worldwide, days after it filed to go public. Official reason: a "jailbreak" that works on every other model too.

February: Anthropic won't let the Pentagon use Claude for autonomous weapons. Trump kills every federal contract, calls them "woke."

June: they file for IPO. Eleven days later, Commerce nukes Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

To me, that sounds more like pressure to push through Trump's agenda.
If this continues, it could have a massive impact on the valuation.

Link to the market on Polymarket below

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

As promised, Elon became the first trillionaire, and Polymarket let us bet on SpaceX without having to buy IPO shares

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

Polymarket has "Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027" at 91%.

Quick math on why that's probably still too low:

SpaceX IPO targeting $1.75T–$2T valuation, June 12 listing.
Musk holds ~42% of SpaceX.

At $1.75T: his stake alone = $735B
At $2T: $840B

Plus ~13% of Tesla ($176B at current MC), plus the restored 2018 Tesla options ($115B), plus xAI synergy premium baked into the merged entity.

Resolution is Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Once SpaceX prices publicly, the liquidity haircut Bloomberg currently applies to that stake mostly disappears he gets marked to actual market cap.

Forbes already has him at $850B today. Bloomberg's $676B is mostly the gap between "private" and "public".

The IPO closes that gap mechanically.

Market in comments 👇

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

https://t.co/UA4ObbQtWy as predicted!

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@iam_smx *trillioniare

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@CarOnPolymarket Just 4% float...anything can happen..

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

My read would be that they're running it over the snapshot data, wallet classification, sybil/wash detection, stress-testing allocation models. If true, the distribution criteria are being designed by a frontier model and azy farming patterns won't survive that. Organic activity will 🥳.

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

Does Trump gamble himself? I'd guess so.

[Grazka @grazkag]

Did you see @Polymarket here?

White House UFC 🫡

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@grazkag @Polymarket Polymarket! I also think that all of the CFDC's new regulatory proposals are very bullish for Polymarket .See my article https://t.co/qP4gUAnk0G
It’s also no coincidence that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor at Polymarket.

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

https://t.co/w8py4YxkO9

[Copezilla @CopezillaTrades]

@FefeDemeny https://t.co/ZOgOb7sXt7 you still can bet on it. Easy one