Corbie

Helping Bettors Win @GetBettorOdds || Help Creators Make $ @BuildrIO

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Headed on 2 week honeymoon tomorrow, so these will take a hiatus. Our team is crushing quality content on the other channels, if you want to support those while im gone, it would be the best wedding gift 🤠

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

@ManiBetz Love it, you’re a beast! Only worry on Novig is being opposite of some seriously sharp action comfortable with being off market, but that’s with any exchange. Seems you’re off to the right direction

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

@GetBettorOdds Made this graph waiting for our plane on honeymoon, grind doesn’t stop boys

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Headed on 2 week honeymoon tomorrow, so these will take a hiatus. Our team is crushing quality content on the other channels, if you want to support those while im gone, it would be the best wedding gift 🤠

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

4,246 MLB Markets to click today
I've got some #juice for you

Deep dive + 3 wagers I took: 👇

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Props

Tyler Phillips Strikeouts (mkt 3.5)
BET: UNDER 3.5 -109
- In a low total matchup it could feel like pitching will be on display and a pitcher listed 3.5 is a stress, but Phillips lack of traditional stretch out makes me not the most dead set they rush this. MIA has had pitching issues, albeit injury or struggles from backend guys, so the worst they could do it put Phillips in unfavorable leashes early in his starter journey

Sonny Gray Strikeouts (mkt 4.5)
BET: OVER 4.5 -122
- I'm a fan of high level pitcher nerds (guys who throw 5+ pitches with confidence) it's like watching Steph shoot or Kyrie dribble, you just have confidence in the work. Now is it a fair analysis? Maybe not, there are plenty 7 pitch guys who stink, but I think when you blend it with underlying skill it makes for much higher upside. Gray has looked *bad* this szn (relative), getting a low number for a guy I think should be in the 5.5 range in near any matchup situation

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Totals

These have crushed over the last 2 seasons (when this model was built). Confident it's the best totals model in the market & I track a ton of the other ppl's work, so im not just bullshitting

KC @ Tex (mkt 8)
BET: UNDER 8 -108
- I clicked this earlier, no move in market makes it less scary but like the # to play. Texas has been the best under team in 2026 & my number has been on the side of shading under throughout the course of this so happy backing the model to continue on its Tex under train. I discussed yesterday that I have KC overvalued due to their home struggles even with favorable field vs market expectation. With Rocker up, who I like for better or worse, this fits a good spot to keep seeing low scoring outputs

MIA @ NYM (mkt 7)
- I show a small edge UNDER, but not playing this. Something that raises an eyebrow for me in spots like this is the non binary "but how much" does a stadiums factor impact a team. Like yes, Citi is very hard to score in and reduces home run rates a lot, but MIA & NYM are in the both quartile of HR rates, so is the impact as much as my number says? I'd guess probably my number adjusts enough but there is a chance I overestimate and kills this edge, so in a "don't have to swing" game like betting, ill wait for a better pitch

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

@zAnnthony Nothing like a 3rd inning cash

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

If you’re betting baseball, these are well worth the quick read daily

Did very well here, probably lucky 🤠

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

3,889 MLB markets to pick from
& boys I have a lot of opinions today

Deep dive + wagers I took: 👇

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

@P53Scott 🏄🏻‍♂️

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

3,889 MLB markets to pick from
& boys I have a lot of opinions today

Deep dive + wagers I took: 👇

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

2 plays, 2 dubs

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Props

Props have run slightly profitable across the board, but more importantly to me have helped find specific outliers & help me build out SGP's daily using the info. The K props seem to have the most signal

Coleman Crow UNDER 3.5 K's +147
- These "Projection + top down theory" spots have been where I enjoy here. FD +124, grabbing much better on the exchanges. Now is that bc I'm the sucker? Maybe. But so far its treated me well so I'll root on the future of exchanges not just being this all empowering signal of staying away

Logan Webb OVER 4.5 K's +132
- Webb 1) is a tank not scared to go 9 IP if he can 2) doesn't have that much spin so Magnus effect doesn't really rip through his swing and miss stuff.. If you're an OG you know I have a soft spot for Webb, I don't know why bc he doesn't fit the "CC pitcher" bill at all, but I like him.. +32 at 4.5 is a crazy price given the tier of pitcher he is. +04 FD, +01 Pinny so price vs market a good spot to play IMO

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Totals

Across the board we've seen a shift from a ton of unders to overs. Could be a ton of reasons, but with the unders doing so well its never the most fun time of the year.. That said, feel pretty good about our underlying build to trust these

ATL vs CIN (9.5 +101)
- Really want a 9 here @ -24 or better, so sitting back and in no rush to get involved but at a flat 9 w/ juice feel comfortable that we are in a winning position (9.5 +101 # wise confident, but as a low volume guy one ill wait for an even better spot).. 27% xHR rate in Cinci should help a Reds offense who prioritize swinging like a mf (7th HR/28th K rate). I have most Braves hitters due for positive regression, so could be a fun spot to put up some big numbers

KC vs TEX (7.5 -107)
- Another one that I feel you're on the right side of if clicking UNDER, but I'll root for an 8 -120 or better. BKM currently -127 so we are close. I've talked about Gore a lot on these daily threads, I'm a fan of a bounce back for him & w/ just 4 bats > .275 xBA on the field this isn't the most terrifying spot to be. Also think though they've been bad, KC bats aren't due for much rebound. I mean they made their home field favorable and still suck ass

TOR vs BAL (8.5 -108)
- Can we do a steroid check on last years Trevor Rogers breakout? I mean this guy went from meh he has potential to holy this guy is unhittable back to meh he has potential before we got GTA 6. If I was a betting man, I'd say this is more the real Trev and in a nice 77 degree day winds blowing out, there is a lot of built up power on both sides waiting to do something

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

Simple as that

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

In on Braves OVER 9 -116 now. Patience was of virtue

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

@roiguy123 I'll do a deep dive here Sunday, but you'd be correct in being skeptical. DK was in the bottom quartile in widely av markets last time I ran this & @Novig engulfed the entire "best price" debate (& wasn't particularly close)

[Corbie @CorbieBO]

@DataLabsHQ Logan Webb 6+ +251 is a fun ride ngl