Costa Verde Capital

Business analyst. I love to study and (occasionally) tweet about great companies. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own work--always.

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

It's fascinating when you think about big winners/multi-baggers. The only investors that hang on for entire journey are the ones that know the business better than most or those that forgot they own it. Time and volatility squeeze out everyone in the middle.

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@MrDavidThomas @stephenwitt Well deserved! Congrats, David!

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@edisonpalmgren @chriswmayer Awesome! Can't wait to read the book!

[Galician Investor Quality Research @GaliciaInvestor]

Peter Lynch:

«Existe una correlación del 100 % entre las ganancias y el precio de las acciones a lo largo del tiempo.»

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

The macro environment is always a distraction (oil, AI disruption, war, inflation) because it makes you incredibly short-term focused and slows you down. You can find great opportunities in any market/macro environment. If you aren't finding them you aren't looking hard enough.

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

How does a failing shoe company pop 725% today by "pivoting to AI" while many phenomenal software companies are getting pummeled every day because of AI?! $BIRD

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@AccionEAFI No $BERNER ? I bet it lands in the sweet spot on these charts. Always seems to get overlooked. Well, maybe not always . . .

[Sean DeLaney @SeanDeLaney23]

I was going through my notes from a conversation between Robert Hagstrom and @WilliamGreen72 about Bill Miller and Hagstrom said something that is so good and I can't stop thinking about.

Hagstrom said Bill helped him avoid being stranded on a desert island of absolutes (how good is that line!). That Bill was so freethinking that he didn't let you get carried away and become dogmatic about anything.

Most failures come from being too loyal to how things should work and not willing to see what's actually working. Miller's point is so simple but important. Value is always in the marketplace. It may migrate to different places. But if you're pragmatic you follow it wherever it goes. If you're a prisoner of absolutes you can lose decades.

I see this every week with not just investors but leaders who are stuck and can't figure out why. It's because they're too wedded to how things should be instead of seeing what's actually happening.

Look around, it's unfolding right now with AI.

One other thing, they described Bill Miller as a "specialist in explosive upside". I love that line. The best leaders I've worked with do the same thing with people. They identify someone with explosive upside that nobody else sees yet. They bet on that person before the person even bets on themselves.

I just thought this section of their conversation captured such a deep timeless insight I wanted to share.

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@rhomboid1MF I think you nailed it Rhomboid . . . The price you pay matters! (Sooner or later.)

Remember this chart and the accompanying commentary from Terry Smith's 2021 book? Over the last 5 years the MSCI has trounced the 3 names he calls out. (L'Oreal is up 8% vs. 74% for the MSCI.)

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@evfcfaddict Too cheap! Have you looked at $UD.MI ? (Also seriously undervalued IMO.) Good luck, Andy!

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

Mark Miller on this morning's $CSU call: AI capabilities will be "table stakes" . . .

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

So good by @GavinSBaker

In Michael Jordan’s second to last year with the Chicago Bulls, Jerry Krause, GM of the Bulls said, “Listen players don’t win championships, organizations do. It isn’t just Jordan or Pippen. It’s how we scout, draft, train, it’s our system." Well… after Michael Jordan left they never won another championship.

The thing allocators struggle with is it feels safe and good to say there is a process and its repeatable. Yes, it is important to have a process that is repeatable that works for you, but any process that is repeatable that generates significant alpha will be quickly arbed away in a competitive world.

So where does repeatable outperformance come from? I would submit that any investment organization no matter how big, there are somewhere between 2-10 people where if you took those people out, and that organization would have the exact same process, the results would be dramatically different.

https://t.co/YEfcvZQmKN

[Evan Bleker @EvanBleker]

"I’ve found over a lifetime that so-called experts don’t really have much to tell us that is of value. They get a lot of press and media attention because they make strong definite claims. But strong definite claims are usually not the stuff of accurate predicting."

- Ed Thorp

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

EQT paid a lofty multiple for Fortnox. What timing, just months before the SaaS implosion started!

I wonder if EQT has any regrets. I wonder how Fortnox is doing.

https://t.co/lM8BKK3k7a

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@iancassel Can they put this down on the balance sheet as an asset? Instead of "E&E", call it "Pumping & Promotion" assets.

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@CJ0pp3l_Sub You've been right about Vysarn since day one, CJ! Congrats!

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

Huge inflows, private equity involved, unsustainably high rates . . . Coulda seen this coming.

https://t.co/7R7Xi60Atk

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

$PYPL stock based comp over the last decade totals almost $11 billion--about one third of today's market cap. Huge disconnect between results and rewards. Massive failure by the BOD.

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

"Great investors don’t get sucked into the vortex of influence. This requires the trait of not caring what others think of you, which is not natural for humans. Indeed, many successful investors have a skill that is very valuable in investing but not so valuable in life: a blatant disregard for the views of others."
- @mjmauboussin

[Costa Verde Capital @CostaVerdeCap]

@iancassel Congrats, Ian! Just pre-ordered.