Counterparty

A media studio for internet native investors. Tune into our daily live show at 8:30am EST:

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

Pinning this masterpiece.

[threadguy @notthreadguy]

My full conversation with @ChrisCamillo

1:20 How I discovered Chris Camillo
0:33 World's first narrative trader
8:05 Why you need to call your trades
10:13 Making 70% a year for 20 years
14:03 The Michelle Obama dress trade
17:00 Trading Damn Daniel
21:34 What hedge funds get Wrong
33:15 IRL trade research
49:01 Trading the iPhone launch
56:36 The female edge in trading
1:02:19 Trading the Swatch AP
1:16:38 Chris's worst trade
1:26:20 Crypto traders can crush the stock market
1:37:33 Not selling Amazon

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

ft @JasonYanowitz @santiagoroel @theempirepod

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

Jason Yanowitz says Threadguy understands how young people think about finance better than almost anyone

"Threadguy is more on the nose of what is actually happening in the 25 and under crowd and how they treat finance. I think Threadguy just gets it."

"If memecoins haven't died through retail getting absolutely rinsed over the last year, he might have a point here."

[dnap @dnapway]

when everyone realizes how important narrative is for stock price and fundraising you get the era of the cult leader ceo. Elon, Alex Karp, Palmer Luckey, Dario... even Zuckerberg 2.0

this didn't use to matter for the world's biggest companies but now the stakes are too high to just be an operator

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Story is strategy is story. If you don’t have a good story, are you sure you have a good strategy? And does anyone know what your strategy is?

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

FT @notthreadguy

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

GPT Live is the turning point where people start talking with AI just as they would a friend in real life. The weird quirks that made LLMs sound unnatural are disappearing. Nobody will feel weird about talking to something that talks back like a human.

“I would imagine we’re not that far off from an entire subset of society just talking to AI over voice”

“There’s a subset of Middle America that exists and spends every waking second talking to ChatGPT. Most people are pretty lonely. Most people don’t live in the city, they’re not going out and having social interaction"

"For me AI has already become a substitute for personalized advice. Stuff that you would normally go to reddit or google for to get specific advice"

[threadguy @notthreadguy]

the market will forever crave memecoins (philosophical deep dive)

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

our stream today in 36 minutes

2:02 billion dollar PDF theory
8:29 everyone will talk to AI
15:28 GTA 6 will be a cashcow
18:07 bottom in on memory?
28:33 Vlad Tenev memecoin arc
33:24 obsessed with memecoins again

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

FT @notthreadguy @leopoldasch @jeremygiffon

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

Threadguy explains how every trillion-dollar investment theme can be attributed to a single PDF

"Every 10 years there's an era-defining tech paper that creates trillions of dollars in value. Every time there's a great technological change in the world, it's peak fear, nobody knows what to think. Somebody has to crystallize the message and give people a foundation to think off of"

"The obvious one of this generation is Situational Awareness by Leopold. Think about how much money was created from this paper. He leaves OpenAI, writes Situational Awareness, and every single thing he talks about happens. Everybody that listened to him and followed what he talked about, made billions and billions and billions of dollars"

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

(mini rant) contending with the irony of markets

[threadguy @notthreadguy]

(mini rant) contending with the irony of markets

[Mikli @CryptoMikli]

Threadguy says the reason solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump and cash-cat:native ripped is that they made memecoins an unsolved game again

"The sneaker game was completely fried, flat, and solved. But then Travis Scott, at the height of his success, drops a Jordan 1 and everyone's like, 'Wait, we know how to trade the 350 V2 re-release. We have no idea how to trade Travis Scott'"

"We know how to price a dog coin CTO with the same nine people tweeting about it. We don't know how to price Ansem putting all of his motion behind a coin.The only way to unsolve a solved game is to throw a new variable into the mix, and it happened in both scenarios"

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

Vlad Tenev barely has to do anything to make Robinhood Chain succeed

"The bar for a new blockchain is so low. The only thing they have to do is not mess it up. Don't wake up one day and announce creator coins. Don't wake up tomorrow and follow 30 memecoin accounts."

"You have to put trading products on-chain where there are marginal buyers. Mortgages, Pokémon cards, stocks... You could give every user a tokenized stock that's not on the Robinhood app, and if they sell it, they get stablecoins back."

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

FT @notthreadguy

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

Threadguy explains the ultimate bear case for memory stocks

"Memory is a commodity. Apple is gonna be able to buy CXMT memory from China. China's gonna be able to sell memory to the US. We're no longer gonna be pigeonholed into just buying Micron and SanDisk and all these other memory companies. Nobody has a moat, and it's gets destroyed."

"The second part is some kind of war escalation. Everyone panics that memory is a commodity, and we get huge red candles on DRAM. The question is, has this already happened?"

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

our stream today in 39 minutes

0:06 monoculture crossed into crypto
1:37 fumbling $100k on cash-cat:native
10:45 memecoins never die
13:35 unsolved games thesis
18:17 Vlad's robinhood chain playbook
30:17 the market got bored of war
31:40 early Mythos access = steroids

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

FT @notthreadguy

[Counterparty @counterpartytv]

Vlad Tenev barely has to do anything to make Robinhood Chain succeed

"The bar for a new blockchain is so low. The only thing they have to do is not mess it up. Don't wake up one day and announce creator coins. Don't wake up tomorrow and follow 30 memecoin accounts."

"You have to put trading products on-chain where there are marginal buyers. Mortgages, Pokémon cards, stocks... You could give every user a tokenized stock that's not on the Robinhood app, and if they sell it, they get stablecoins back."

[Jack @Jackkk]

Threadguy reveals how one of his viewers went from trading stocks to a 300% gain on his first memecoin solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump

“Comes to the stream as a stock guy, gets introduced to Hyperliquid because we trade on Hyperliquid all day, realizes perps are incredible, buys Hyperliquid, makes money on Hyperliquid, is now paying attention to crypto, sees $ANSEM at 100M, blasts his first memecoin and is up 300% after watching the stream for a month”

“This is why you watch the stream”

[threadguy @notthreadguy]

(rant) why solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump is the only memecoin that's working