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PGA · U.S. Open · Shinnecock Hills
U.S. Open at Shinnecock — The Survival Playbook
Shinnecock is a survival test, not a birdie-fest. The model is paying for ball-strikers who keep it in play and don't make doubles — here's the course-fit core, the underpriced accuracy plays, the bombers to fade, and cap-legal DK builds.
By Courtedge Research·Published Wednesday 6/17, for Thursday's Round 1·Powered by Anthropic
The setup in one paragraph
Shinnecock Hills is a par 70 with a long 455-yard average par-4 and crowned poa/bent greens running lightning fast. Our course model pegs the historical scoring mean at 74.0 — four over par. That number is the strategy: most of the field bleeds shots, doubles are everywhere, and the winner is usually whoever drives it straight and hits the most greens. Distance helps on the long par-4s, but accuracy gates it — bombers who spray it get swallowed by the fescue. Translation: pay for SG:APP and driving accuracy, prize the guys who make the cut in survival setups, and don't overpay for raw power.
How brutal is the math? Shinnecock has hosted four U.S. Opens and yields almost no red numbers — the projected winning score is roughly +3 to even, and avoiding doubles matters more than chasing birdies. Add heavy Thursday wind that could open a wave edge, and the priorities are clear: iron play, scrambling from short grass, and ball-flight control. Market favorites: Scheffler +550, McIlroy +1200, Rahm +1400, Fleetwood/Schauffele +1800, Fitzpatrick +2000, Young/Aberg +2200. (Odds/weather via the open market & Windfinder.)
Top of the board (DK salary · projected points)
GolferWaveDK $ProjSG:TOTScottie SchefflerAM/PM14,90028.62.11Rory McIlroyAM/PM12,20018.41.84Jon RahmPM/AM11,50019.12.47Xander SchauffelePM/AM10,10019.21.39Tommy FleetwoodAM/PM9,70020.01.17Matt FitzpatrickPM/AM8,90016.81.91Russell HenleyPM/AM8,00016.11.16Patrick ReedAM/PM7,90017.82.07
Free read: the cleanest value on the board is Patrick Reed at $7,900 — a 17.8 projection, a 2.07 SG:TOT, and a U.S. Open record of T10 / T12 / T10 the last three years. He's exactly the kind of accurate, cut-proof grinder Shinnecock rewards. The full course-fit core, the underpriced accuracy tier, the bombers to fade, and four cap-legal DK builds are below.
Course-fit core — the must-haves
Jon Rahm — $11,500 (PM/AM) · 19.1 proj · 2.47 SG:TOT
The best ball-striker in the field for this setup: 69.6% driving accuracy, 76.9% GIR, and a slate-best 1.10 SG:APP. He keeps it in play and hits greens — exactly what a 74-scoring survival test demands. Cuts made in 5 straight U.S. Opens. The cleanest "set-and-forget" anchor that isn't Scheffler's price.
Matt Fitzpatrick — $8,900 (PM/AM) · 16.8 proj · 1.91 SG:TOT
A former U.S. Open champion with 68% accuracy and elite SG:ARG (0.74) — the scrambling that saves pars on crowned greens. His finish log screams survival (two runner-ups in majors). At under $9k he's the value bridge between the studs and the mid-tier.
Russell Henley — $8,000 (PM/AM) · 16.1 proj · 1.16 SG:TOT
The accuracy king of the field: 73.4% driving accuracy, the straightest driver on the board. He won't blow up, and on a course where doubles decide everything, that floor is worth a roster spot in every cash build.
The Core Four — your anchors across every contest: Scheffler (correct chalk at the top), Rahm (best ball-striker fit), Reed (the value engine), and Koepka (the leverage bomb). Build cash around the first three; build GPP around Koepka and the low-owned course fits below.
The survival / cut angle
At a 74-scoring U.S. Open, making the weekend is alpha — half the field is gone by Friday night. Prioritize golfers with the accuracy + scrambling to grind out pars:
GolferDK $ACCSG:T2GSurvival noteTommy Fleetwood9,70069.7%0.95Elite iron play, US Open mainstayJoaquin Niemann7,40071.4%1.57Straightest of the value bombersSi Woo Kim7,20068.7%1.00Accurate, T35-or-better pedigreeAaron Rai6,80072.9%0.90Pure accuracy punt
Underpriced value (the edge)
GolferDK $ProjSG:TOTWhyPatrick Reed7,90017.82.07T10/T12/T10 last three US Opens — cut-proof, accuratePatrick Cantlay7,30014.11.14Mid-priced consistency, strong major floorHarris English6,70010.00.69Salary relief with a real cut floorAdam Scott6,60012.01.0367.5% GIR at $6.6k — strong leverageKurt Kitayama6,5009.90.61Punt with upside, fits a Scheffler build
Holy Grail ball-striking edge (recent T2G / approach): the data hammers the accuracy thesis — Tyrrell Hatton ($8,700 · BS +1.67 · T2G +2.11), Matt Fitzpatrick (BS +1.11 · ARG +0.50), Si Woo Kim (BS +1.12 · T2G +1.39), and Ludvig Aberg (BS +1.17 · T2G +1.25) are the field's premier ball-strikers. Deep-value ball-strikers the field will miss: Alex Fitzpatrick ($6,600 · BS +1.34) and Ben Kohles ($5,700 · T2G +1.63). Hatton — elite irons plus a tough-conditions temperament — is a strong add to the core, and Hovland (3rd last week) is peaking.
Projected chalk — who the field is on
Ownership from LineStar. In cash you generally want this group — they're chalky because they're strong fits with high floors:
GolferDK $Own%FloorSi Woo Kim7,20025.6%9.0Ludvig Aberg9,20022.6%19.8Xander Schauffele10,10022.2%15.8Rory McIlroy12,20018.2%17.0Russell Henley8,00017.6%13.3Matt Fitzpatrick8,90016.3%13.2Jon Rahm11,50016.2%15.5Cameron Young / Patrick Cantlay10,500 / 7,300~15.5%16.0 / 15.3
The cash / 200-build blueprint
For quick mass-cash builds, the recipe is balanced + chalky + high-floor — not low-owned darts. Lean into the chalk above, anchor on the highest floor/safety scores (Scheffler 98 safety, Aberg 93, McIlroy/Schauffele 92, Rahm 88, Young 87), and fill with high-floor value (Gotterup, Reitan, Ryan Gerard, Michael Brennan). A clean starting structure: two of Schauffele / Fleetwood / Aberg, add Si Woo Kim, then play floor + course-fit down to roughly the $6,500 tier.
🛡️ CASH — chalk/floor build ($50,000)
Ludvig Aberg $9,200 · Xander Schauffele $10,100 · Matt Fitzpatrick $8,900 · Russell Henley $8,000 · Si Woo Kim $7,200 · Adam Scott $6,600
Total $50,000 · five of six rostered 16%+ — the high-floor, cut-safe shape you want stamped across 200 cash lineups.
⚡ GPP course-fit leverage plays
This is where tournaments are won — strong course fits the field is ignoring. Ownership + leverage from LineStar; course fit from SG + setup history.
GolferDK $Own%Course-fit caseBrooks Koepka9,4000.8%3× major champ who thrives on brutal setups — highest leverage on the boardHideki Matsuyama7,6001.7%Elite iron play (SG:APP), near-zero ownershipShane Lowry7,1003.1%Won The Open in miserable conditions — built for a course that bitesJordan Spieth7,1002.8%Short-game wizard for crowned, lightning greensJason Day6,7000.8%Massive ceiling at a near-zero price tagDustin Johnson6,3001.7%Former U.S. Open champ — value-priced power that travels
Data-backed fades
GolferDK $ACCWhy fadeBryson DeChambeau11,00062.9%Power outlier, but a 6.14 projection at $11k — the model says you're paying major-name taxChris Gotterup8,20049.4%Sub-50% accuracy is a blow-up profile at Shinnecock — GPP dart onlyNicolai Hojgaard6,70049.3%Same story — bomber accuracy that this setup punishes
Note: ownership is now layered in from LineStar. The "chalk" of this slate is mild by golf standards — Scheffler (~6%) and DeChambeau (~5%) are the only players over 4% — so the leverage game is less about fading chalk and more about finding the low-owned course fits above.
Thursday wave split
Watch the draw — Shinnecock wind can swing the cut line between waves.
AM/PM (early Thursday): Scheffler, McIlroy, Young, Fleetwood, Aberg, Hatton, Reed, Burns, Si Woo Kim, McNealy, Harris English.
PM/AM (late Thursday): Rahm, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, Henley, Morikawa, Hovland, Thomas, Cantlay, Niemann, Matsuyama, Clark.
The model's loves — outright & round-1 value
For DFS leverage and roster-construction context (informational, not a betting recommendation):
Winner-equity off Scheffler: Jon Rahm — the model's best non-Scheffler ball-striker fit; accuracy + greens that travel to any U.S. Open setup.
Round-1 / first-round-leader leverage: Brooks Koepka — AM/PM wave, a 120 ceiling at 0.8% ownership. If the early draw catches the calmer conditions, he's the highest-upside low-owned dart in the field.
Make-the-cut anchors: Henley, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood — the straightest hitters are the ones who survive a 74-scoring grind to the weekend.
Cap-legal DK builds (6 golfers · $50,000)
🛡️ CASH — accuracy core ($49,600)
#1 — Straight-hitters cash build
Jon Rahm $11,500 · Matt Fitzpatrick $8,900 · Russell Henley $8,000 · Patrick Reed $7,900 · Harris English $6,700 · Adam Scott $6,600
Total $49,600 · all 68%+ accuracy / high-GIR ball-strikers — built to make the cut and grind.
🛡️ CASH — Scheffler anchor ($49,800)
#2 — Stud + value
Scottie Scheffler $14,900 · Patrick Reed $7,900 · Si Woo Kim $7,200 · Harris English $6,700 · Adam Scott $6,600 · Kurt Kitayama $6,500
Total $49,800 · the best golfer on the planet plus four accurate value plays.
💎 GPP — leverage build ($50,000)
#3 — No-Scheffler ceiling
Rory McIlroy $12,200 · Tommy Fleetwood $9,700 · Patrick Reed $7,900 · Si Woo Kim $7,200 · Adam Scott $6,600 · Sahith Theegala $6,400
Total $50,000 · gets you off Scheffler for tournament leverage while keeping two elite ceilings.
🚀 GPP — power-ceiling dart ($50,000)
#4 — Scheffler + upside
Scottie Scheffler $14,900 · Chris Gotterup $8,200 · Patrick Reed $7,900 · Si Woo Kim $7,200 · Adam Scott $6,600 · Cooper Dossey $5,200
Total $50,000 · pairs the anchor with a high-variance bomber and a sub-$5.2k dart for MME differentiation.
🚀 GPP — max-leverage course fit ($49,800)
#5 — Low-owned ceiling build
Rory McIlroy $12,200 · Brooks Koepka $9,400 · Hideki Matsuyama $7,600 · Shane Lowry $7,100 · Aaron Rai $6,800 · Jason Day $6,700
Total $49,800 · only McIlroy is rostered above 4% — cumulative ownership is rock-bottom while every name is a real course fit. This is your tournament-winner shape.
How we built this (methodology)
Course model: Shinnecock profile — par 70, 455-yd avg par-4, crowned poa/bent greens, 74.0 historical scoring mean (penal, accuracy-premium setup).
Strokes-gained: DataGolf SG splits (OTT / APP / ARG / PUTT / T2G), weighted toward approach + driving accuracy for this venue.
Salaries & projections: tonight's DK pricing + projected points + 5-year finish history.
Pending layer: ownership projections (for GPP leverage / fades) — slot in when available.
Bottom line
Core: Rahm, Fitzpatrick, Henley — accuracy + greens, built for survival.
Value: Patrick Reed ($7.9k) is the play of the slate; Adam Scott + Harris English fund the studs.
Fade: spray-it bombers (Gotterup, Hojgaard) and the DeChambeau name tax.
Watch: the wind draw — it can move the cut line between waves.
This article was generated by Courtedge Research. Slate, build, and simulate at /pga-dk-lineup-lab.
Courtedge does not accept wagers. This article is for informational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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FREE ARTICLE BEHIND @COURTEDGEAI PAYWALL LETS GO!!!!!!MLB · Main Slate · 6/16/2026
MLB Main Slate 6/16 — Stacks, Pitchers & Value Playbook
A 12-game main slate with two elite offensive environments hiding at sub-3% ownership. Here's where the leverage is tonight — top stacks, the best low-owned pivots, two tournament arms, one 150-max fade, and two value bats that fit every build.
By Courtedge Research·Published Tuesday 6/16, for tonight's main slate·Powered by Anthropic
The slate in one paragraph
The DraftKings main slate is 12 games (24 teams), locking at the 7:05 ET window — the three early games (Marlins/Phillies, Royals/Nationals, Blue Jays/Red Sox) are off the slate. Game totals run from a pitcher-friendly 7.5 up to a juicy 9.5 in three spots (Mets/Reds, Rockies/Cubs, Giants/Braves). The story tonight isn't the chalk — it's that our two highest-projected stacks on the board, Milwaukee and the Dodgers, are both sitting under 2.3% projected ownership. That's a rare top-of-board leverage gift, and it shapes every build below.
Stack projection board — top of the slate
TeamOpp (SP)Stack ProjCeilingProj Own%MILvs CLE (Cecconi)76.0146.22.2%LADvs TB (Rasmussen)75.8138.92.1%NYMvs CIN (Singer)74.7118.59.5%NYYvs CWS (Martin)71.1126.32.6%ATLvs SF (Houser)70.6114.24.7%MINvs TEX (Rocker)70.2120.02.8%LAAvs ARI (Kelly)70.2121.33.6%DETvs HOU (Brown)69.2132.72.4%SEAvs BAL (Young)69.0120.51.2%
Stack Proj = sum of projected DK points for the team's listed hitters. Ownership is field-projected for the main slate. The full breakdown — which bats to use, the pitchers to roster, the one to fade, and the value plays — is below.
Top stacks to target
Three stacks lead the board on raw projection. The first two are the rare combination of top-of-slate ceiling at bottom-of-slate ownership — exactly the spot you build large-field GPPs around.
⚡ Milwaukee Brewers — vs Slade Cecconi (CLE)
Highest-projected stack on the slate (76.0 proj, 146.2 ceiling) at just 2.2% ownership. Cecconi is a contact-prone, beatable right-hander, and the Brewers' top of the order is humming. This is your #1 leverage stack — full 5-man in GPPs.
Core bats: Jackson Chourio $5,300 (11.0 proj / 24.6 ceil), Brice Turang $5,500 (9.3), Christian Yelich $5,100 (8.7, 0.3% own), William Contreras $4,500 (8.5), Jake Bauers $4,700 (9.1, 18.8 ceil). Punt extension: Joey Ortiz $2,400 / David Hamilton $3,300.
⚡ Los Angeles Dodgers — vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
The #2 projected stack (75.8 proj, 138.9 ceiling) and somehow the lowest-owned premium stack on the board at 2.1%. Note the honest tension: Rasmussen is also one of our tournament pitcher options below (32.6 ceiling). Pick a side — if you believe in the Rasmussen ceiling you fade LAD; if you want the leverage stack, you're betting the Dodgers' lineup depth wins out. In large-field GPPs the LAD stack at 2% is the higher-EV side.
Core bats: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (11.4), Max Muncy $4,800 (10.0, 0.8% own), Freddie Freeman $5,200 (9.2), Andy Pages $5,200 (8.3, 18.3 ceil), Kyle Tucker $4,700 (8.5). Value glue: Ryan Ward $3,500 (7.8).
🔥 New York Mets — vs Brady Singer (CIN)
The slate's chalk stack (74.7 proj, 9.5% own) — and for good reason: this game carries a 9.5 total, the joint-highest on the board, and Singer is a high-ownership, hittable arm. You don't have to fade it; you just have to know it's the popular build. In cash and single-entry it's a perfectly correct lean. In a 150-max, get to it at lower exposure than the field and pair it with one of the sub-3% stacks above.
Core bats: Juan Soto $5,800 (11.8, 16.9% own), Carson Benge $3,500 (9.4, 18.5 ceil), Bo Bichette $4,100 (9.1), Marcus Semien $2,800 (7.7, value), Jared Young $2,700 (7.9).
Best low-owned (leverage) stacks
If you want differentiation in a big field, these are the spots where projection and ownership disconnect the most. All carry real ceiling at <3% projected ownership.
TeamOpp (SP)ProjCeilOwn%Why it's liveSEAvs Brandon Young (BAL)69.0120.51.2%Lowest-owned stack on the slate; top-9 proj with near-zero field exposure.DETvs Hunter Brown (HOU)69.2132.72.4%2nd-highest ceiling of any stack (132.7) — a pure boom contrarian dart vs a tough arm. Dingler $5,000 has a 24.3 ceiling.NYYvs Davis Martin (CWS)71.1126.32.6%4th-highest proj at 2.6% own. Jazz Chisholm $4,700 (1.4%) and Ben Rice $6,100 anchor it.MINvs Kumar Rocker (TEX)70.2120.02.8%Buxton $5,900 (11.1) up top, cheap support (Bell, Clemens, Lee all sub-$3.7k). Easy salary relief.
Leverage rule of thumb tonight: pair ONE of the two premium sub-3% stacks (MIL or LAD) as your primary 5-man, then bring a secondary 2–3 man from SEA / DET / MIN. That gets you off the Mets-heavy field without sacrificing projection.
Tournament pitcher options
Two arms to build around in GPPs — one safe anchor, one true leverage dart — plus a high-ceiling third option.
⚓ Hunter Brown (HOU) — $10,000 vs DET
The slate's top-projected SP at 22.6 (26.2 ceiling) and, importantly, only 16.6% owned for a clear #1 arm. He's the safe anchor: highest floor + the strikeout upside that wins single-entry and cash. If you can fit him, he's the cleanest build-around on the board.
🚀 Davis Martin (CWS) — $9,000 vs NYY
This is the tournament leverage arm. Martin carries a 31.1 ceiling at just 5.6% ownership — the best ceiling-to-ownership ratio of any startable pitcher tonight. Yes, the NYY matchup is scary, which is exactly why the field is off him. In a 150-max where you need separation, a 9.0k arm with a 31-point ceiling that almost no one rosters is how you spike a top-1% finish.
Third option / cheap dart: Drew Rasmussen (TB) $8,800 vs LAD — the single highest pitcher ceiling on the slate (32.6) at 3.7% own. Tough matchup, but pure GPP upside if you're not stacking the Dodgers. Reid Detmers (LAA) $8,700 (30.2 ceiling, 2.0% own) is the same idea $100 cheaper.
The fade — 150-max
🚫 Jack Perkins (ATH) — $5,000 vs PIT — FADE
Perkins is the most-owned pitcher on the entire slate at 21.3% while projecting just 5.6 points with a 9.3 ceiling — the lowest ceiling of any starter on the board. The ownership is purely a salary-relief reaction (cheapest arm in a soft matchup), but the projection says it's a trap: he doesn't miss enough bats to return a GPP-winning score, and a short outing tanks your lineup. In a 150-max, being underweight the 21%-owned punt arm is free leverage. Pivot to: Davis Martin or Reid Detmers — similar salary range, multiples of the ceiling, a fraction of the ownership.
Two value bats that fit every build
Both clear the salary you need to fit Hunter Brown + a premium stack, and both carry real ceiling — not empty min-priced filler.
💎 Bryce Eldridge (SF, 1B) — $3,100
The best raw value bat on the slate: 9.2 proj on a 19.0 ceiling at just 6.0% own. At $3,100 he unlocks two premium pitchers or an extra stud hitter while still giving you a legitimate power ceiling at first base.
💎 Colt Keith (DET, 3B) — $2,700
7.8 proj / 18.6 ceiling at 2.0% own — elite points-per-dollar at the corner. He's also a natural piece of the contrarian Detroit stack, so he double-counts as value and leverage. Note he's only playable if your pitchers aren't Hunter Brown or Framber Valdez (both are in this DET/HOU game).
Honorable mentions: Cole Carrigg (COL, OF) $3,000 — 8.9 proj / 19.6 ceil at 2% own; Josh Bell (MIN, 1B) $3,000 — 8.4 proj, clean salary relief inside the Twins stack.
Top-1% lineup blueprint (cap-legal)
One example build that ties it together: Hunter Brown as the safe anchor, Davis Martin as the leverage arm, a 5-man Milwaukee leverage stack, and value bats to make the salary work. No hitter faces either of our pitchers.
🚀 MME / Top-1% Leverage — $48,900 total · 107.4 proj
P: Hunter Brown (HOU) $10,000 · P: Davis Martin (CWS) $9,000
C: William Contreras (MIL) $4,500 · 1B: Josh Bell (MIN) $3,000 · 2B: Brice Turang (MIL) $5,500
3B: David Hamilton (MIL) $3,300 · SS: Joey Ortiz (MIL) $2,400
OF: Jackson Chourio (MIL) $5,300 · OF: Cole Carrigg (COL) $3,000 · OF: Samad Taylor (SD) $2,900
5-man MIL stack (Contreras / Turang / Hamilton / Ortiz / Chourio). $1,100 under cap, above the $48,700 floor, position-valid, zero pitcher-vs-hitter conflicts.
Build, tweak, and run 100+ sims on this in the MLB Sim Optimizer or full DK Lineup Lab.
Bottom-line takeaway
The whole slate bends around one fact: the two best offensive environments on the board are nearly unowned. Don't overthink it.
Correct chalk: Mets stack (9.5 total vs Singer) — fine to roster, just at field-minus exposure.
⚡ Leverage gems: Milwaukee (2.2%) and the Dodgers (2.1%) — top-2 projected stacks at sub-3% own. Build your GPPs here.
Pitchers: Hunter Brown to anchor; Davis Martin as the low-owned ceiling play (Rasmussen/Detmers as darts).
🚫 Fade in the 150: Jack Perkins (21.3% own, 5.6 proj) — the slate's clearest chalk trap.
💎 Value: Bryce Eldridge ($3,100) and Colt Keith ($2,700) make every premium build fit.
FREE ARTICLE BEHIND @COURTEDGEAI PAYWALL LETS GO!!!!!!MLB · Main Slate · 6/16/2026
MLB Main Slate 6/16 — Stacks, Pitchers & Value Playbook
A 12-game main slate with two elite offensive environments hiding at sub-3% ownership. Here's where the leverage is tonight — top stacks, the best low-owned pivots, two tournament arms, one 150-max fade, and two value bats that fit every build.
By Courtedge Research·Published Tuesday 6/16, for tonight's main slate·Powered by Anthropic
The slate in one paragraph
The DraftKings main slate is 12 games (24 teams), locking at the 7:05 ET window — the three early games (Marlins/Phillies, Royals/Nationals, Blue Jays/Red Sox) are off the slate. Game totals run from a pitcher-friendly 7.5 up to a juicy 9.5 in three spots (Mets/Reds, Rockies/Cubs, Giants/Braves). The story tonight isn't the chalk — it's that our two highest-projected stacks on the board, Milwaukee and the Dodgers, are both sitting under 2.3% projected ownership. That's a rare top-of-board leverage gift, and it shapes every build below.
Stack projection board — top of the slate
TeamOpp (SP)Stack ProjCeilingProj Own%MILvs CLE (Cecconi)76.0146.22.2%LADvs TB (Rasmussen)75.8138.92.1%NYMvs CIN (Singer)74.7118.59.5%NYYvs CWS (Martin)71.1126.32.6%ATLvs SF (Houser)70.6114.24.7%MINvs TEX (Rocker)70.2120.02.8%LAAvs ARI (Kelly)70.2121.33.6%DETvs HOU (Brown)69.2132.72.4%SEAvs BAL (Young)69.0120.51.2%
Stack Proj = sum of projected DK points for the team's listed hitters. Ownership is field-projected for the main slate. The full breakdown — which bats to use, the pitchers to roster, the one to fade, and the value plays — is below.
Top stacks to target
Three stacks lead the board on raw projection. The first two are the rare combination of top-of-slate ceiling at bottom-of-slate ownership — exactly the spot you build large-field GPPs around.
⚡ Milwaukee Brewers — vs Slade Cecconi (CLE)
Highest-projected stack on the slate (76.0 proj, 146.2 ceiling) at just 2.2% ownership. Cecconi is a contact-prone, beatable right-hander, and the Brewers' top of the order is humming. This is your #1 leverage stack — full 5-man in GPPs.
Core bats: Jackson Chourio $5,300 (11.0 proj / 24.6 ceil), Brice Turang $5,500 (9.3), Christian Yelich $5,100 (8.7, 0.3% own), William Contreras $4,500 (8.5), Jake Bauers $4,700 (9.1, 18.8 ceil). Punt extension: Joey Ortiz $2,400 / David Hamilton $3,300.
⚡ Los Angeles Dodgers — vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)
The #2 projected stack (75.8 proj, 138.9 ceiling) and somehow the lowest-owned premium stack on the board at 2.1%. Note the honest tension: Rasmussen is also one of our tournament pitcher options below (32.6 ceiling). Pick a side — if you believe in the Rasmussen ceiling you fade LAD; if you want the leverage stack, you're betting the Dodgers' lineup depth wins out. In large-field GPPs the LAD stack at 2% is the higher-EV side.
Core bats: Shohei Ohtani $6,500 (11.4), Max Muncy $4,800 (10.0, 0.8% own), Freddie Freeman $5,200 (9.2), Andy Pages $5,200 (8.3, 18.3 ceil), Kyle Tucker $4,700 (8.5). Value glue: Ryan Ward $3,500 (7.8).
🔥 New York Mets — vs Brady Singer (CIN)
The slate's chalk stack (74.7 proj, 9.5% own) — and for good reason: this game carries a 9.5 total, the joint-highest on the board, and Singer is a high-ownership, hittable arm. You don't have to fade it; you just have to know it's the popular build. In cash and single-entry it's a perfectly correct lean. In a 150-max, get to it at lower exposure than the field and pair it with one of the sub-3% stacks above.
Core bats: Juan Soto $5,800 (11.8, 16.9% own), Carson Benge $3,500 (9.4, 18.5 ceil), Bo Bichette $4,100 (9.1), Marcus Semien $2,800 (7.7, value), Jared Young $2,700 (7.9).
Best low-owned (leverage) stacks
If you want differentiation in a big field, these are the spots where projection and ownership disconnect the most. All carry real ceiling at <3% projected ownership.
TeamOpp (SP)ProjCeilOwn%Why it's liveSEAvs Brandon Young (BAL)69.0120.51.2%Lowest-owned stack on the slate; top-9 proj with near-zero field exposure.DETvs Hunter Brown (HOU)69.2132.72.4%2nd-highest ceiling of any stack (132.7) — a pure boom contrarian dart vs a tough arm. Dingler $5,000 has a 24.3 ceiling.NYYvs Davis Martin (CWS)71.1126.32.6%4th-highest proj at 2.6% own. Jazz Chisholm $4,700 (1.4%) and Ben Rice $6,100 anchor it.MINvs Kumar Rocker (TEX)70.2120.02.8%Buxton $5,900 (11.1) up top, cheap support (Bell, Clemens, Lee all sub-$3.7k). Easy salary relief.
Leverage rule of thumb tonight: pair ONE of the two premium sub-3% stacks (MIL or LAD) as your primary 5-man, then bring a secondary 2–3 man from SEA / DET / MIN. That gets you off the Mets-heavy field without sacrificing projection.
Tournament pitcher options
Two arms to build around in GPPs — one safe anchor, one true leverage dart — plus a high-ceiling third option.
⚓ Hunter Brown (HOU) — $10,000 vs DET
The slate's top-projected SP at 22.6 (26.2 ceiling) and, importantly, only 16.6% owned for a clear #1 arm. He's the safe anchor: highest floor + the strikeout upside that wins single-entry and cash. If you can fit him, he's the cleanest build-around on the board.
🚀 Davis Martin (CWS) — $9,000 vs NYY
This is the tournament leverage arm. Martin carries a 31.1 ceiling at just 5.6% ownership — the best ceiling-to-ownership ratio of any startable pitcher tonight. Yes, the NYY matchup is scary, which is exactly why the field is off him. In a 150-max where you need separation, a 9.0k arm with a 31-point ceiling that almost no one rosters is how you spike a top-1% finish.
Third option / cheap dart: Drew Rasmussen (TB) $8,800 vs LAD — the single highest pitcher ceiling on the slate (32.6) at 3.7% own. Tough matchup, but pure GPP upside if you're not stacking the Dodgers. Reid Detmers (LAA) $8,700 (30.2 ceiling, 2.0% own) is the same idea $100 cheaper.
The fade — 150-max
🚫 Jack Perkins (ATH) — $5,000 vs PIT — FADE
Perkins is the most-owned pitcher on the entire slate at 21.3% while projecting just 5.6 points with a 9.3 ceiling — the lowest ceiling of any starter on the board. The ownership is purely a salary-relief reaction (cheapest arm in a soft matchup), but the projection says it's a trap: he doesn't miss enough bats to return a GPP-winning score, and a short outing tanks your lineup. In a 150-max, being underweight the 21%-owned punt arm is free leverage. Pivot to: Davis Martin or Reid Detmers — similar salary range, multiples of the ceiling, a fraction of the ownership.
Two value bats that fit every build
Both clear the salary you need to fit Hunter Brown + a premium stack, and both carry real ceiling — not empty min-priced filler.
💎 Bryce Eldridge (SF, 1B) — $3,100
The best raw value bat on the slate: 9.2 proj on a 19.0 ceiling at just 6.0% own. At $3,100 he unlocks two premium pitchers or an extra stud hitter while still giving you a legitimate power ceiling at first base.
💎 Colt Keith (DET, 3B) — $2,700
7.8 proj / 18.6 ceiling at 2.0% own — elite points-per-dollar at the corner. He's also a natural piece of the contrarian Detroit stack, so he double-counts as value and leverage. Note he's only playable if your pitchers aren't Hunter Brown or Framber Valdez (both are in this DET/HOU game).
Honorable mentions: Cole Carrigg (COL, OF) $3,000 — 8.9 proj / 19.6 ceil at 2% own; Josh Bell (MIN, 1B) $3,000 — 8.4 proj, clean salary relief inside the Twins stack.
Top-1% lineup blueprint (cap-legal)
One example build that ties it together: Hunter Brown as the safe anchor, Davis Martin as the leverage arm, a 5-man Milwaukee leverage stack, and value bats to make the salary work. No hitter faces either of our pitchers.
🚀 MME / Top-1% Leverage — $48,900 total · 107.4 proj
P: Hunter Brown (HOU) $10,000 · P: Davis Martin (CWS) $9,000
C: William Contreras (MIL) $4,500 · 1B: Josh Bell (MIN) $3,000 · 2B: Brice Turang (MIL) $5,500
3B: David Hamilton (MIL) $3,300 · SS: Joey Ortiz (MIL) $2,400
OF: Jackson Chourio (MIL) $5,300 · OF: Cole Carrigg (COL) $3,000 · OF: Samad Taylor (SD) $2,900
5-man MIL stack (Contreras / Turang / Hamilton / Ortiz / Chourio). $1,100 under cap, above the $48,700 floor, position-valid, zero pitcher-vs-hitter conflicts.
Build, tweak, and run 100+ sims on this in the MLB Sim Optimizer or full DK Lineup Lab.
Bottom-line takeaway
The whole slate bends around one fact: the two best offensive environments on the board are nearly unowned. Don't overthink it.
Correct chalk: Mets stack (9.5 total vs Singer) — fine to roster, just at field-minus exposure.
⚡ Leverage gems: Milwaukee (2.2%) and the Dodgers (2.1%) — top-2 projected stacks at sub-3% own. Build your GPPs here.
Pitchers: Hunter Brown to anchor; Davis Martin as the low-owned ceiling play (Rasmussen/Detmers as darts).
🚫 Fade in the 150: Jack Perkins (21.3% own, 5.6 proj) — the slate's clearest chalk trap.
💎 Value: Bryce Eldridge ($3,100) and Colt Keith ($2,700) make every premium build fit.
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MLB · Main Slate · 6/16/2026
MLB Main Slate 6/16 — Stacks, Pitchers & Value Playbook
A 12-game main slate with two elite offensive environments hiding at sub-3% ownership. Here's where the leverage is tonight — top stacks, the best low-owned pivots, two tournament arms, one 150-max fade, and two value bats that fit every build.
By Courtedge Research·Published Tuesday 6/16, for tonight's main slate·Powered by Anthropic
The slate in one paragraph
The DraftKings main slate is 12 games (24 teams), locking at the 7:05 ET window — the three early games (Marlins/Phillies, Royals/Nationals, Blue Jays/Red Sox) are off the slate. Game totals run from a pitcher-friendly 7.5 up to a juicy 9.5 in three spots (Mets/Reds, Rockies/Cubs, Giants/Braves). The story tonight isn't the chalk — it's that our two highest-projected stacks on the board, Milwaukee and the Dodgers, are both sitting under 2.3% projected ownership. That's a rare top-of-board leverage gift, and it shapes every build below.
Stack projection board — top of the slate
TeamOpp (SP)Stack ProjCeilingProj Own%MILvs CLE (Cecconi)76.0146.22.2%LADvs TB (Rasmussen)75.8138.92.1%NYMvs CIN (Singer)74.7118.59.5%NYYvs CWS (Martin)71.1126.32.6%ATLvs SF (Houser)70.6114.24.7%MINvs TEX (Rocker)70.2120.02.8%LAAvs ARI (Kelly)70.2121.33.6%DETvs HOU (Brown)69.2132.72.4%SEAvs BAL (Young)69.0120.51.2%
Stack Proj = sum of projected DK points for the team's listed hitters. Ownership is field-projected for the main slate. The full breakdown — which bats to use, the pitchers to roster, the one to fade, and the value plays — is below.
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MLB · Main Slate · 6/16/2026
MLB Main Slate 6/16 — Stacks, Pitchers & Value Playbook
A 12-game main slate with two elite offensive environments hiding at sub-3% ownership. Here's where the leverage is tonight — top stacks, the best low-owned pivots, two tournament arms, one 150-max fade, and two value bats that fit every build.
By Courtedge Research·Published Tuesday 6/16, for tonight's main slate·Powered by Anthropic
The slate in one paragraph
The DraftKings main slate is 12 games (24 teams), locking at the 7:05 ET window — the three early games (Marlins/Phillies, Royals/Nationals, Blue Jays/Red Sox) are off the slate. Game totals run from a pitcher-friendly 7.5 up to a juicy 9.5 in three spots (Mets/Reds, Rockies/Cubs, Giants/Braves). The story tonight isn't the chalk — it's that our two highest-projected stacks on the board, Milwaukee and the Dodgers, are both sitting under 2.3% projected ownership. That's a rare top-of-board leverage gift, and it shapes every build below.
Stack projection board — top of the slate
TeamOpp (SP)Stack ProjCeilingProj Own%MILvs CLE (Cecconi)76.0146.22.2%LADvs TB (Rasmussen)75.8138.92.1%NYMvs CIN (Singer)74.7118.59.5%NYYvs CWS (Martin)71.1126.32.6%ATLvs SF (Houser)70.6114.24.7%MINvs TEX (Rocker)70.2120.02.8%LAAvs ARI (Kelly)70.2121.33.6%DETvs HOU (Brown)69.2132.72.4%SEAvs BAL (Young)69.0120.51.2%
Stack Proj = sum of projected DK points for the team's listed hitters. Ownership is field-projected for the main slate. The full breakdown — which bats to use, the pitchers to roster, the one to fade, and the value plays — is below.
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These links work!! Please sub, get a 7 day trial and some of the best lineups a simulator and optimizer can make for tournaments- went through all of giantsquids single entrys and GPPs and Moklovin-- so they are built similarly. Giantsquid in MLB for instance has 2 guys who are the same in almost every roster in his 150s.
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🔒 MLB MAIN is live — 8 games, first pitch 7:05 ET
Tonight on CourtEdge:
⚾ Top stack: A's (slate-high 6.0 implied) vs Jared Jones
🔥 Smash spot: Cubs bats vs Lorenzen (6.93 ERA)
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🔒 MLB MAIN is live — 8 games, first pitch 7:05 ET
Tonight on CourtEdge:
⚾ Top stack: A's (slate-high 6.0 implied) vs Jared Jones
🔥 Smash spot: Cubs bats vs Lorenzen (6.93 ERA)
📈 852 live +EV plays across 28 books, updating by the minute
🤖 Upgraded sim: 350 correlated GPP builds in seconds
Full write-up + lineups 👇
👉 https://t.co/ykMBS7ICtA
MLB SLATE JUNE 15 lets FUCKING GO!!!!!!!
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MLB · Main Slate · 6/15/2026
MLB Main Slate Playbook — Monday 6/15: The +EV Board, Top Stacks & Top-1% Lineups
Eight games, four real run environments, and a slate where the chalk pitcher is also the correct one. Here's the sharp-devig pick board, the stacks our model is buying, and the sim-ranked DraftKings builds for cash and GPP.
By Courtedge Research·Published Monday 6/15, for tonight's main slate·Powered by Anthropic
The slate in one paragraph
Tonight's main slate gives us a clear top tier of offenses and one elite, underpriced ace. The Cubs carry the slate's highest implied team total at 6.23 with Shota Imanaga on the mound against Colorado, and the books have moved Chicago's number up +0.33 into the evening. The Dodgers (implied 5.82, +0.40 the biggest upward move on the board), the Athletics back in Sacramento (5.55), and the Cardinals (4.99) round out the run-scoring tier. On the other side, Texas got hammered down −0.45 with MacKenzie Gore drawing the assignment. No major weather flags to play around today, so this is a pure matchup-and-pricing slate.
Slate at a glance. Top implied totals: CHC 6.23 · LAD 5.82 · ATH 5.55 · STL 4.99. Biggest favorites: CHC −225, LAD −182, STL −162, TEX −157. Biggest total moves up: LAD +0.40, CHC +0.33, CIN +0.28, NYM +0.22. Faded: TEX −0.45.
One free +EV pick (the rest are below)
Michael Lorenzen — OVER 15.5 outs (+146, Novig)
Colorado @ Chicago Cubs. Our model prices this at 46.9% to cash versus a 40.7% implied — a +15.4% EV edge at plus money on a starter the books are quietly extending. This is the kind of plus-priced pitcher length prop the sharp devig keeps flagging that the public skips. Free taste — the full STRONG-tier board, stacks, and lineups are members-only below.
Below the line: the rest of today's +EV pick board (including our top STRONG play), the four offenses we're stacking, full pitcher tiers, and three cap-legal, sim-ranked DraftKings builds for cash, single-entry, and the top-1% MME blueprint.
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Behind the paywall: the full +EV pick board, the four stacks we're buying, complete pitcher tiers, and the cap-legal cash / SE / top-1% MME lineups our subscribers are building right now.
What you get with CourtEdge Premium
✅ All premium picks daily — sharp-consensus devig, public track record
✅ Every lineup lab — MLB DK, PGA DK, NBA, MMA — Moklovin-style builds
✅ Live +EV board — quantile + Monte Carlo edge sheet, all sportsbooks
✅ Every premium write-up — including this one
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