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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

Coria +3.5 -135
1.35 to win 1
I fell like this is going to be a really good fight in which I think there is intrigue on just taking the dog straight here. However, at -135 and a fight that is -180 to go over the 2.5 mark. I feel like I would rather pay for a little insurance here

[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

The game theory in one paragraph
DraftKings MMA scoring pays heavily for finishes and early wins, and it pays for volume and control in decisions. A $9,500 favorite who wins a clean but quiet decision is often a lineup-killer, because the salary you spent could have bought a dog who finished. So the question on every fight is not "who wins?" — it's "who scores enough per dollar, and how many other lineups have them?"

This card has an unusual shape. The top of the price board is crowded with favorites in fights that carry real danger (Milošević, Ko, Nakamura, Kondratavičius, Fernando, Smith). The field will stack two or three of them and fill with mid-range chalk. Our edge comes from:

Leaning into the main event at a price that's softer than the matchup. Acosta at $8,700 for five rounds is the best ceiling-per-dollar spot among the favorites.
Getting different in the co-main. Jandiroba at $7,600 is the most under-priced fighter on the slate relative to how close the fight actually is.
Picking our expensive favorites carefully — one or two, not four — and choosing the ones with the cleanest finishing paths (Nakamura, Ko) over the ones who might only win rounds.
Sprinkling live dogs (Turman, Walker, Petroski, Raposo) in a minority of builds rather than chasing all of them at once.@CourtEdgeAI https://t.co/ykMBS7ICtA

[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

The game theory in one paragraph
DraftKings MMA scoring pays heavily for finishes and early wins, and it pays for volume and control in decisions. A $9,500 favorite who wins a clean but quiet decision is often a lineup-killer, because the salary you spent could have bought a dog who finished. So the question on every fight is not "who wins?" — it's "who scores enough per dollar, and how many other lineups have them?"

This card has an unusual shape. The top of the price board is crowded with favorites in fights that carry real danger (Milošević, Ko, Nakamura, Kondratavičius, Fernando, Smith). The field will stack two or three of them and fill with mid-range chalk. Our edge comes from:

Leaning into the main event at a price that's softer than the matchup. Acosta at $8,700 for five rounds is the best ceiling-per-dollar spot among the favorites.
Getting different in the co-main. Jandiroba at $7,600 is the most under-priced fighter on the slate relative to how close the fight actually is.
Picking our expensive favorites carefully — one or two, not four — and choosing the ones with the cleanest finishing paths (Nakamura, Ko) over the ones who might only win rounds.
Sprinkling live dogs (Turman, Walker, Petroski, Raposo) in a minority of builds rather than chasing all of them at once. #MMA #Gametheory #Draftkings #Simulations https://t.co/ykMBS7Jaj8 @CourtEdgeAI

[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

The game theory in one paragraph
DraftKings MMA scoring pays heavily for finishes and early wins, and it pays for volume and control in decisions. A $9,500 favorite who wins a clean but quiet decision is often a lineup-killer, because the salary you spent could have bought a dog who finished. So the question on every fight is not "who wins?" — it's "who scores enough per dollar, and how many other lineups have them?"

This card has an unusual shape. The top of the price board is crowded with favorites in fights that carry real danger (Milošević, Ko, Nakamura, Kondratavičius, Fernando, Smith). The field will stack two or three of them and fill with mid-range chalk. Our edge comes from:

Leaning into the main event at a price that's softer than the matchup. Acosta at $8,700 for five rounds is the best ceiling-per-dollar spot among the favorites.
Getting different in the co-main. Jandiroba at $7,600 is the most under-priced fighter on the slate relative to how close the fight actually is.
Picking our expensive favorites carefully — one or two, not four — and choosing the ones with the cleanest finishing paths (Nakamura, Ko) over the ones who might only win rounds.
Sprinkling live dogs (Turman, Walker, Petroski, Raposo) in a minority of builds rather than chasing all of them at once. #MMA #Draftkings #Simulations Sign up now for only $29.99 at https://t.co/ykMBS7ICtA

[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

@EstablishTheRun I’m refining CourtEdge Analytics: NBA projections, Cash/Core rankings, heatmaps and lineup research.

Looking for DFS players to help shape the tools as we improve them.

Membership details — $29/month:
https://t.co/ZyncutQp6F

[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

I’m refining CourtEdge Analytics: NBA projections, Cash/Core rankings, heatmaps and lineup research.

Looking for DFS players to help shape the tools as we improve them.

Membership details — $29/month:
https://t.co/ZyncutPRh7 #NBA #Simulations #Draftkings

[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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[CourtEdge @CourtEdgeAI]

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