Covering Delta

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

What in the pathology explains how psilocybin would have this effect?

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

"Language gave machines a way to talk about that world. World models are how machines will finally come to understand, imagine, reason and interact with it."

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

The vandals have sacked the Cathedral over at CBS, evidenced by the systematic firing or resignation of anyone with a shred of journalistic integrity and the capacity for independent thinking.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I'd rather live in a messy city with a 1992 NYC crime rate than one in which missiles occasionally rain down on my head.

Famous last words, as this is where more privileged parts of the world may be headed anyway, but the point stands.

It's not all about taxes and crime rates.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I think about this A LOT.

Taking these statistics at face value, what does the ratio of one's net worth to their home's replacement cost value need to be in order for forgoing home insurance altogether to be a rational decision?

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

A fund promising 60% returns to outside investors is claiming to outperform nearly every professional who's ever lived. This is how we know it's a fraud.

Patrick, who made his fortune in multi-level marketing selling insurance to the middle class, knows this better than anyone.

The fact that he accepted 1 million dollars from this scammer to market directly to his audience is not surprising given the culture of his organization. It doesn't mean that he had evidence it was a fraud and chose to promote it anyway. It's just that when you run your business in unethical ways you tend to attract unethical people.

People with integrity don't hang around guys who claim they can generate 2x the returns of Stanley Druckenmiller or Peter Lynch with zero-track record, let alone promote them as their headline sponsor to a crowd of "12,000+ founders and CEOs" who paid up to $17,000 per ticket for the privilege.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

🤦🏻‍♂️

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

The problem with this car is not that it isn’t fun and cool in its own quirky way, but that it’s not worth $700,000. It’s not even in the same universe as that kind of money.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

Car design has become commodified, as have the features that used to differentiate one from another. There is nothing unique about this vehicle.

If you have a vintage car that's fun to drive (especially if it's a manual transmission) hold onto it. Those prices are only going up.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

Manoj Pradhan joins me on @HiddenForcesPod to discuss how aging demographics will lead to a deterioration in developed government finances, ultimately forcing central banks to choose between monetary stability and supporting growth (and employment).

https://t.co/pdqtuXUnDb

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I just wrapped up an insanely great conversation with Manoj Pradhan, who argues that rising real interest rates driven by a number of structural factors will create a persistent and still under appreciated deterioration in the fiscal position of governments across the developed world, ultimately forcing central banks to choose between maintaining monetary stability and economic growth (and employment).

DEMOGRAPHICS ARE INFLATIONARY

Pradhan contends that conventional models — which predict aging will drive deflation and lower real rates — misread the macroeconomic balance. As populations age, government dis-saving (through unfunded pension and healthcare obligations) overwhelms additional private savings, while chronic underinvestment in new housing construction post-GFC will create persistent housing demand competes for the same shrinking pool of capital. Layered on top are spending pressures from defense, climate, and digital infrastructure including data centers. The result, in his view, is a regime of higher real rates, stickier services inflation, and growing political pressure on central banks to suppress bond yields — what he calls fiscal and financial dominance.

HEALTHCARE, HOUSING, AND SERVICES INFLATION

The first hour establishes the foundational thesis: the two channels through which demographics push real rates higher (healthcare + new housing construction), the role of China as a fading disinflationary force, Baumol's cost disease as a driver of services inflation, and the implications for Social Security and sovereign debt. Recent bond market stress in the United Kingdom, France, Japan, and the United States is offered as early evidence that the regime change Pradhan and Goodhart forecast a decade ago has begun.

AI-DRIVEN WEALTH EFFECTS + FISCAL DOMINANCE

The second hour digs into housing investment (and it's impact on interest rates), intergenerational wealth dynamics, and a notably contrarian view on artificial intelligence and inequality. Drawing on the work of labor economist David Autor, Pradhan argues that AI's diffuse impact on white-collar work makes it qualitatively different from prior technological shocks and could actually reduce inequality rather than widen it.

The conversation then turns to the book's title concept — central banks losing independence through both fiscal dominance and financial dominance — the political pressure currently on the Federal Reserve, and what all of this means for asset allocation in a world where, in Pradhan's words, equity markets "will have to earn their earnings rather than be lifted by a tide of cheap capital."

The episode drops Monday. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I had the misfortune of having to sit through a talk given by this individual at a small gathering a few years ago where he made an ass out of himself with his hot takes on every trending twitter topic known to man.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I'm joined by @MilesTaylorUSA, fmr Chief of Staff at the @DHSgov to discuss the existential stakes of AI development, the erosion of centralized state power, and the domestic security threats that will define the years ahead.

https://t.co/jpHKLCJhD1

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

Grok was trained off of twitter conversations, which is why it's version of a public square is a grand melee of gratuitous slaughter and violence.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I remember when @TrevAHall first launched the Mining Stock Daily podcast.

In just a few years he’s turned it into a successful media company that helps educate investors on what will doubtlessly be one of the most important economic sectors to watch in the years ahead. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

The vast majority of people working in customer service for US companies have environmentally induced mental disabilities. This is a product of (1) learned helplessness and (2) the internalization of institutional inertia resulting in a total failure of common sense.

I would love to see some research done in partnership with wireless carriers to determine how much time the average American spends on such phone calls with call centers and how much it has grown in the last 10 years.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

Anyone facing the type of diagnosis Eric received in November 2023 would be excused for becoming paralyzed by fear and falling into terminal depression. Instead, Eric faced his diagnosis with the kind of courage and determination that you only read about in great myths and epics. It has been nothing short of inspirational to follow his journey.

He is a role model for all of us and his wife, family, and most of all parents who have had to face some of the worst news a parent can ever hear must be very, very proud of the man he has become.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

I'm joined by @WillManidis to discuss the collapse of secular institutional legitimacy, the reassertion of divine faith and political violence as organizing forces, and what AI-generated wealth concentration means for the economy and the social contract.

https://t.co/jjoKFWLPNE

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

😂😂😂😂😂

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

This ref needs to go straight to jail. No leniency.