Craig Davis

Sports journalist for more than 40 years in S. Florida. Now with @5ReasonsSports. Check out my travel writing site

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

In time for Christmas, the ebook edition of my novel "Tail of the Lizard" is now available at all the major online book stores.

Follow the universal link to your preferred platform:

https://t.co/CY6zzCRm0c

The paperback version currently available only at Amazon.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

If I'm deciding Marlins' lineup, Sanoja is in there every friggen night. Don't get notion he's got to be a bench player. Nobody I'd rather see up at a key moment. X, Sanoja, Otto, Liam, that's my 1-4. Think Mack is going to be good. Hope Conine returns soon & Stowers gets going

[Barry Jackson @flasportsbuzz]

Marlins win after Mack 2B and error shortly thereafter

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Yes, all of that.

[Jonathan Zaslow @ZaslowShow]

Michael Yormark was CEO of the Panthers during its most embarrassing and incompetent years. He was also a tyrant in the building.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

You completely missed the story. They didn't get the satellite to where it needed to be and it won't stay in orbit. Very costly failure.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Blue Origin just compressed one of the most important learning curves in aerospace history by 3x.

First Falcon 9 landing: December 22, 2015. First reuse: March 30, 2017. SpaceX took 15 months to go from "we caught one" to "we flew it again."

First New Glenn landing: November 13, 2025. First reuse: April 19, 2026. Blue Origin did it in 5 months and 6 days.

That compression is the entire story. The second mover in platform-scale physics businesses gets the expensive lessons for free. SpaceX ran 611 public landing attempts so that every aerospace engineer on Earth could watch the failure modes, the thermal protection trade-offs, the grid fin geometries, the refurbishment cycle. Blue Origin replaced all seven BE-4 engines on this booster before reflight. They didn't need to discover reuse was hard. They needed to skip to the part where you know which parts to replace.

Run the numbers on the gap that's still there though.

SpaceX has 598 booster landings. Blue Origin has 2.
SpaceX has 565 successful reflights. Blue Origin has 1.
SpaceX's fleet leader has flown 34 times. The record for Blue Origin's reused booster is today.

Dave Limp said the goal is a 30-day reuse cadence by end of 2026. SpaceX's fastest turnaround is 9 days.

Bezos caught up on the milestone that mattered and is still a decade behind on the cadence that actually prints money. Both things are true at once. Reusability is no longer a moat. Cadence is.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Good stuff on Willis from CKP.

[Chris Kouffman @ckparrot]

This is a Malik Willis ACCURACY post.

Something Willis said in his opening presser caught my attention as it ties in with other head-scratching observations I had while looking into him the last 3 months.

TLDR - his accuracy improvement is starting to remind me of JOSH ALLEN.

THE QUOTE

"My first year didn't go great, so I went to figure out things that would help me. I started working with this guy in Jacksonville. He started teaching me the mechanics of throwing- using my hips and this lower body that I have, this strength that we work for, instead of just using all arm, all the time, and it's just less consistent, and more strain on your body. So working that over the last 4 years, it's been super beneficial. It's helped me become way more accurate and consistent. Obviously there's times where you've got to make throws that aren't going to be perfect platforms, and that's whatever God has given you, but whenever you can be consistent when consistent is there, I think that's great."

THE TIMING

One of the reasons the quote stood out to me was because Malik offered a missing puzzle piece as it pertains to the timing of his development as a pro. Most people (lazily, IMO) exclusively credit Packers head coach Matt LaFleur for Willis's transformation from rookie flop to one of the hottest free agents on market. And while no doubt the Green Bay system helped Malik on his journey, there are obvious flaws in that hypothesis.

Malik Willis started his first games for the Packers in 2024 a mere THREE WEEKS after they traded for him. This was anything but ideal. He barely knew the playbook, barely knew his new teammates. He hardly had the time to absorb any coaching from his new team, let alone from a Head Coach who had a million more pressing matters to attend than the development of a player his team had just flipped a casual 7th round pick for during final cuts.

But injuries happen, and Willis was pressed into duty ultra-early. He won his first start against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 of the 2024 season. Then he beat, and frankly embarrassed, Mike Vrabel's Tennessee Titans in Week 3.

Willis only started 3 games during his time in Green Bay, and 2 of them happened before Matt LaFleur, or frankly any of the Packers staff, could have significantly impacted his development arc.

The obvious conclusion is that Willis had already improved from his rookie season, had already improved over what he showed in Hugh Freeze's offense at Liberty, and nobody realized it because he had spent the entirety of 2023 buried on Tennessee's depth chart behind the starter Ryan Tannehill and his newly-picked successor Will Levis.

So when you see Malik talk about how he began working with a QB specialist in the 2023 off season, suddenly that timing becomes more conspicuous than the change of uniform and helmet.

THE NUMBERS

Let's put some numbers on this. Pro Football Focus does an "adjusted" accuracy percentage where they only count "aimed" throws (i.e. no spikes or throwaways) and then credit the QB for any receiver drops.

I was a big fan of Willis's coming out of Liberty in 2022. But accuracy was never a big part of the story on him. His adjusted accuracy was only about 72% during his final 2 seasons with the Flames. To put into context, Josh Allen (of whom I was also a big fan) had about 67% adjusted accuracy at Wyoming.

I bring up Josh Allen because he's the quintessential "inaccurate" QB prospect who (depending on who you talk to) did the "impossible" by wholly improving his accuracy. Willis's accuracy at Liberty was only 5% better than Allen's at Wyoming. And when you account for Allen's 12.8 yards average depth of target on his throws versus Willis's 11.4 yards average, "shot selection" (forgive the basketball term) probably accounts for the bulk of even that marginal difference.

Sure enough, PFF recorded a 68% adjusted accuracy for Malik Willis in the preseason of his rookie year, followed by 67% during a regular season for which Willis himself admits he was unprepared. "Not great, Bob!"

Fast-forward. The Titans GM who drafted Willis got fired mid-season out of embarrassment over the A.J. Brown trade. Local writers talked about how Malik's relaxed demeanor didn't jive with Mike Vrabel's preference for a more fiery, Brady-like competitor. Malik himself says that when Vrabel benched him as a rookie it was because he was worried that the smallish Willis was going to get hurt. So Vrabel and the new GM draft a much bigger, more explicitly fiery QB in Will Levis. Effectively, Malik Willis was done in Tennessee. Tannehill was still the starter, and there was no way the shiny new 33rd overall pick was going to be QB3 on the depth chart.

All that to say, preseason was the only action Malik Willis was destined to get in 2023. But strangely, between the 57 aimed passes he had in preseason and the 5 he had in the regular season, his adjusted accuracy jumped all the way to 81%. Willis's average depth of target remained virtually unchanged (8.8 yards to 8.9 yards) from 2022 to 2023, but his accuracy jumped multiple levels.

Which brings us back to Malik's story about working with a specialist in Jacksonville to develop more consistent lower-body mechanics during that 2023 off-season.

A year later, Willis is still with the Titans during the 2024 preseason and puts out a still-elevated 79% adjusted accuracy on mostly the same average depth (8.6 yards). Then he starts 2 games for the Packers, a mere 3 weeks after being traded, still crash-coursing the playbook and trying to find chemistry with his new teammates, and right out of the gate puts out an impressive 84% adjusted accuracy in those 2 games.

And then in the 2025 regular season, he breaks the charts with 94% adjusted accuracy at 9.7 yards average depth.

PUTTING IT TOGETHER

The numbers tell us the WHAT - that Malik Willis went from being a guy with "Bad Josh Allen" accuracy to being a guy with "Good Josh Allen" accuracy.

They also tell us the WHEN - that this happened before Malik boarded his first plane to Green Bay.

And further, Willis himself has been trying to tell us HOW and the WHY.

So while "sample size" is the criticism du jour when it comes to Willis, we can actually go back far enough to say that we've now seen over 200+ aimed passes since he first began working with that QB specialist in Jacksonville. We can see that his true accuracy is multiple levels above not only what he was in his rookie year with the Titans, but also multiple levels above what he was in a college system facing college opponents at Liberty University.

Whether the decision-making component has or will continue to develop for Malik Willis is anyone's guess. That is a subject for a different post.

Malik Willis is a true accuracy development story, much like Josh Allen's famously thought-impossible journey from being the "inaccurate" 1st round pick that everyone in the world criticized, to an elite passer with great accuracy.

And if Willis has improved one area of his game most talking heads seem to be convinced doesn't significantly improve for professionals, who is to say he hasn't improved other areas?

Author's Note: No, I didn't use AI for this. It's pure ChatCKP.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Nailed it!

[AJ🌴⚾️ @OttoIsMyMotto_]

@CraigMish Am I the only one who gets Dustin from stranger things vibes from Marsee

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Great story, Adam. Always interested in what players go through to get to the big leagues.

[Adam Steinmetz @adamsteinmetz1]

@TheJacobTurner I wrote an article about one of those players, Marlins relief prospect Josh White, who shared the ups and downs of life in the minor league as he reported to his first Major League Spring Training today.

https://t.co/HFyVkMlrC5

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Was always fascinates watching veteran players, non roster invitees trying to coax another season in the show. Recall Jacob in that spot with Marlins one year. That is the essence.of spring training.

[Jacob Turner @TheJacobTurner]

26 roster spots.

You walk into big league camp for the first time.

Bright lights.
Name on the locker.
Big league clubhouse.

Then you look around.

26 spots...

Yet 20 are already locked up.

All Stars
Long Term Deals
Veterans Making $10M+

Heck, you aren't even competing for 6 spots.

You are competing for 1 or 2 based on your position.

Welcome to spring training.

The veteran is "preparing for the year".

Yet you are "fighting for your career".

The veteran is mapping out in-season housing.

You are trying to avoid the manager's office.

The veteran is playing the first 3 innings.

You are playing the last six on the road.

The veteran is on his "own program".

You are trying to please every coach.

The veteran looks forward to each week.

You are just trying to avoid packing up your locker.

Big league spring training comprises 60+ players.

For 20, it is time to prepare for the year.

For the other 40, it is a career-defining month.

So just remember when you see number 86 going all out in the eighth inning, now you know why.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

This is a punter's wildest dream. Can't wait to see whichever wins on the talk shows tomorrow. How'd ya do it? 1 2 3, kick!

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Panthers season died tonight. Painful to watch. ... 9 days till pitchers and catchers report.

[George Richards @GeorgeRichards]

5-3 Sabres with 2:09 left … Josh Doan all but ends this one.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

How do you tell these two apart?

[Omar Kelly @OmarKelly]

So…..

Give it to me. What was your impression of the #Dolphins introduction of the GM and head coach?

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

El Pulpo (Antonio Alfonseca).

[Jeremiah Geiger @JeremiahGeiger2]

Start naming random Marlins a 🧵

I’ll start, Jarred Cosart

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Dolphins season was an embarrassment and starting fresh with a new general manager and coaching staff is warranted.

Column @5ReasonsSports

https://t.co/NsybGavzHj

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Panthers have given up 6 goals since they last scored.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

That's a plus. ... when I brought up the idea in 2016 to Bettman about a Winter Classic in Marlins Park, he brushed it off as the most ridiculous idea he'd ever heard. I will enjoy this so called dumb idea coming to fruition ... on TV.

[George Richards @GeorgeRichards]

@CraigDavisRuns Pictures do not do it justice. We’re in the baseball press box and have a MUCH better view of the ice than we do in Sunrise. Better TVs, too.

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Except it looks like most seats are a mile from the ice. Will look better seeing it on TV.

[George Richards @GeorgeRichards]

She’s a beaut, Clark…

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Ewers makes case to stick as Dolphins' QB-1. But Fins have leadership questions to answer first.

Column @5ReasonsSports

https://t.co/QUKz7whb7m

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Watching Zonk be Zonk never gets old.

[Chris at Phins.com @PhinsChris]

“The face and mindset of the Perfect Season.” — @davehydesports

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Ewers showed enough for further review.

Meanwhile, Fins owner Steve Ross's belief in Mike McDaniel is baffling as the team continues to embarrass and disappoint.

Plus, Kurt Warner's analysis of Tua benching.

Column @5ReasonsSports

https://t.co/ytemV0HVS5

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Will McDaniel and the Dolphins' front office have the good sense to pull the switch to see what Quinn Ewers can do in the final three games? Will owner Steve Ross demand it?

Column @5ReasonsSports

https://t.co/sUm6KmB2mT

[Craig Davis @CraigDavisRuns]

Jaylen Wright's big game a good sign for Dolphins. But Achane's health vital for staying in playoff hunt.

Column @5ReasonsSports

https://t.co/A6U692d79s