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$NBIS Weekly Recap & why Friday got ugly.
The setup: a monster start to the week
Monday opened with Nebius ripping to a fresh all-time high, closing +14.46%
Two catalysts drove it:
1️⃣ The Q1 blowout. Revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with the company swinging to a profit, a genuine step-change from a prior loss-making story.
2️⃣ A heavyweight vote of confidence. Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund Situational Awareness disclosed a 5.6% stake of roughly 12.41 million shares, worth about $2.6B. This is the ex-OpenAI researcher whose fund has scaled to $13.7 billion in AUM from $225 million in under two years.
On top of that, management raised 2026 capex guidance to $20–25 billion and is targeting $7–9 billion in annualized revenue by year-end, and Jensen Huang gave a public shout-out in Taipei: "We worked with Nebius, and they are growing incredibly fast."
The confidence of having the CEO of $NVDA being so positive about $NBIS speaks volumes as to the added value he sees to form such a close partnership to introduce the latest NVDA product innovations that create a perfect synergy to the AI Infra strategy, team execution & vision for the future of Agentic AI & Physical AI.
By Tuesday the stock printed a 52-week high near $278.84, but momentum was already flashing overbought (RSI ~72) and BNP Paribas initiated coverage at Neutral.
Friday's sell-off: what actually happened
$NBIS dropped double digits Friday (down ~14–15% intraday, closing in $227.81 (-12.27%).
It wasn't one thing, it was a stack:
🔹 A hot jobs report. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May vs. the 85,000 economists expected — a big upside surprise.
🔹 Markets read it as hawkish. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped ~10 bps to 4.14%, and per CME FedWatch, odds of at least one rate hike by the December 9 meeting climbed to roughly 58% — the first meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Higher-for-longer rates hit high-multiple growth names hardest.
🔹 A crowded, overheated trade. After a 30%+ weekly run, with 21.1% of the float sold short, this was as much profit-taking and a sector-wide AI-infrastructure cooldown as it was company-specific news.
Friday was a macro-driven, momentum-unwind reset — not a crack in the Nebius business story. Nothing in the actual fundamentals changed between Monday's high and Friday's close.
Why the future still looks bright 🟢
Zoom out and the thesis is intact: 684% revenue growth, a swing to profitability, sold-out AI capacity with demand booked into 2027, a $19B MSFT deal, $27B Meta deal, a $2B Nvidia strategic investment, and one of the sharpest AI investors on the planet buying 5.6% of the company. Even after the pullback, $NBIS is up +153% YTD in 2026, with Street targets ranging up to $287-$380.
On top of that yesterday SpaceX booked a $30B deal with Google, Meta is raising money for AI Infra and the build up continues for at least a few more years, no one is stopping.
Volatility is the price of admission for owning a hyper-growth AI infrastructure leader. The story is still being written and the long-term trajectory points up. 📈
Take advantage if you believe in $NBIS and dont complain for having dips, wave 4 could take us to $200 but after that wave 5 could push the stock to $404.