interest rate cut expectations are pared back, gold could face downward pressure, especially if real yields edge up.
Medium-term bias:
Gold’s next big move depends on whether the Fed truly remains hesitant to cut deeply. If USD strength returns in H2 2025 as Capital
strength to return later in 2025 as:
1. Tariff uncertainty fades.
2. Interest rate differentials shift back in USD’s favour (Fed less dovish than markets expect; other central banks more dovish).
3. The market becomes desensitized to political noise.
Fed policy angle:
Tariff-dr
Federal Reserve's target. Energy prices are contributing to a rise in headline inflation, but core inflation (excluding food and energy) is anticipated to grow at a slower rate. Supply chain improvements and lower commodity prices,