@Jaemyung_Lee Lee expressed strong satisfaction with South Korea’s major arms deals in the Middle East. The Korean government now appears to believe the Abraham Accords are no longer viable.
Anyone who believes Australia would do anything beyond verbal support to actually deter its largest export customer is a geopolitical idiot…
Especially now that the Simandou iron ore megaproject is accelerating into production and will flood the market with new supply.
In the process of the world’s polarization, the stupidest diplomacy is to completely throw in one’s lot with one pole. The consequences are nothing but being carved up by the two superpowers or being drained dry by one of them. Of course, today’s wars are no longer about territory, but about economic interests.
When leaders use “public opinion” as an excuse, pander to populism, abandon diplomatic efforts, and leave everything to fate, the ones who ultimately pay the price are the entire nation’s citizens.
My guess is that the first areas where China will apply pressure are automotive magnets, tungsten, and passive components (capacitors, resistors, inductors, etc.).
It is unlikely to directly target Japanese companies operating in China (e.g., factory shutdowns or forced exits). The main goal remains raising costs for Japan (and downstream for the U.S.), thereby fueling inflation in both countries.
I guess Beijing will start applying economic pressure until the United States agrees to participate in China-Japan mediation talks, thereby gaining an advantageous position in subsequent U.S.-China negotiations. The Japanese prime minister is an old man living in the last century who has no concept of the current gap in military spending between China and the United States after cost adjustment. According to my calculations, this gap is already smaller than the closest point ever reached between the Soviet Union and the United States.
Beijing and Washington reached a consensus on peace negotiations in Gyeongju, South Korea. This is a compromise following the long-term suffering caused by the economic strength contest between the two major powers. Can the dispute arising from the Japanese new prime minister’s rash off-script remarks lead US President Trump to abandon this agreement? I guess it’s unlikely. Beijing will have no way out; Beijing’s leaders cannot show weakness to the West twice within a year. There is now way out for now.
If Trump doesn’t decide to tear up the US-China trade deal over the China-Japan relations dispute in the next week, I bet the Sanae Takaichi government will resign within 3 months.