Goldman Sachs: No rate cuts in 2026. The first cut is delayed to June 2027, with a 20% chance of mild hikes this year.
1. Stubborn core PCE inflation will hold above 3%, well above the 2% target.
2. Strong jobs, wages and GDP backed by AI investment avert recession.
3. Tariffs and Middle East tensions lift oil prices and trigger repeated imported inflation bounces.
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