CryptoBigMac

I eat big mac's and lose money trading
NFA

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@AltcoinSherpa That’s most likely the scenario

[Altcoin Sherpa @AltcoinSherpa]

'Yeah grandpa I know you survived World War 2, but did you survive the Melania portfolio rape of 2025?'

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@thedefivillain Have you considered that it will pump whenever trump does or says something crypto related

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@thedefivillain This is alpha right here

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@CryptoCapo_ June and July my friend

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@alpha_pls Patience indeed. Filtering noise too, meaning not believing everything you read on twitter, but developing general thoughts based on data

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@tradetheflow_ Wow 👏 Haven’t read a good post in a while, thanks for the insight flow

[flow @tradetheflow_]

The ETH ETF - What to expect?

Spent some time doing a little scenario analysis on what we could expect to ETH price when its spot ETF start trading.

Here's my full analysis:

1. Expected inflows into the ETF

It is not an easy task to estimate with precision the potential inflows into the ETH ETFs. So here, I decided to rely on the predictions from various experts to try and come up with a range of expected value. And this is what I got:

-Goldman Sach: They expect the new spot ethereum ETFs to attract a modest $1 billion-$3 billion or so of net inflows for the remainder of the year.

Source: https://t.co/5qsfg2ko9o

-Bloomberg: @EricBalchunas (Senior ETF Analyst) expect that ETH could capture around 15–20% of the inflows seen with BTC ETFs.

Source: https://t.co/LtcDoDiHRV
-Bitwise:  @Matt_Hougan (CIO) thinks that the ETH ETFs could see net inflows of between 25% to 50% of those of the BTC ETFs in the first four months of trading.

Source: https://t.co/k430sCFRjw

-Grayscale: Research team expects that the spot ETH ETFs will see roughly 25%-30% of the demand of the BTC ETFs.

Source: https://t.co/npOvmqa5zU

Based on that, I derived a bear, base, and bull estimate for the potential inflow into the ETH ETF for the end of 2024.

Now comes the million-dollar question: How can we estimate the price impact of these potential inflows for ETH?

Again, there is no easy way to do this, but one option could be to draw some assumptions based on the recent spot Bitcoin ETF.

2. BTC price reaction to the spot ETF

A lot of factors move the market. But ultimately, a price will move based on two forces: demand and supply. Hence, it seems reasonable to assume that the surge in marginal demand arising from the new BTC ETFs has had a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, especially considering the limited and known supply of Bitcoin.

So for this study, I assumed that roughly 75% of Bitcoin recent price action could be explained by the ETF net inflows only.

This implies that a net inflow of ~$13.86B has moved BTC by approximately +37.5%.

In other words, every billion in net inflows into the ETFs is assumed to move BTC by +2.7%.

3. Extrapolating to ETH

However, BTC and ETH are different animal. So if we want to estimate how much ETH could move for each billion dollars in net inflows, we need to take other factors into account:

->BTC FDV is currently ~3.15x that of ETH
-> Around 27% of all ETH is staked.
->ETH supply has, in overall, been deflationary (-0.184%) since the Merge.

Based on this, a reasonable assumption could be that ETH is 4x more reactive than BTC, meaning that for the same inflow, ETH will move four times as much as BTC.

This would mean that every billion dollars in net inflows could move ETH by +10.8%.

4. Wrapping it up - Scenario analysis

Given all of this, we can derive different estimate on the price performance of ETH by the end of 2024:

->Bear case: ETH at $4,428 by end of year
->Base case: ETH at $5,294 by end of year
->Bull case: ETH at $6,730 by end of year

5. Some things to keep in mind

-This is only a short analysis with a lot of shortfall and strong assumption. It should only serve as a reference point.

-Significant outflows from Grayscale Ethereum Trust to the new ETF are expected due to the ETF’s higher liquidity, narrower spreads, and lower fees. This can impact price and volatility, or at least in the short term.

-There is no staking available for the ETFs for now. This should evolve in the future (which would be a positive element).

-Unlike Bitcoin, which is clearly marketed as “digital gold,” Ethereum’s value proposition may be a bit harder to convey to retail investors. This can have a negative impact on the initial ETFs hype. But over time, I think it would be seen as the world biggest decentralized computer network (the mother of all tech stocks).

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

$PENDLE will hit 10$ this month

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

The market should move by June 2nd

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

$ONDO

THIS IS JUST GETTING STARTED

[The DeFi Investor 🔎 @TheDeFinvestor]

"First they they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"

The U.S. presidential race is getting very interesting

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

We so back #ETH
$ETH

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@alpha_pls Yeah this stress is hard for everyone in web3. Everyone knows I will get approved, but that small fucking voice in your head that says “what if it’s rejected”

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

Delayed? Postponed? Pushed ?

Who gives a fkk ?

The approval will happen before June 8th absolutely max

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

$PENDLE will hit 10$

[Altcoin Sherpa @AltcoinSherpa]

The more involved in crypto you are, the farther down the risk curve you should go.

The less involved should just buy $BTC $ETH

ie. If you just open up your coinbase acct every 4 months to check the balance, buy majors only

If you check it daily but work a Reg job and don't have full time for it, maybe you can buy some mid caps

If you're unhinged and on CT/discord/TG nonstop and grinding the shitcoins with us, go buy the 300k Mc coin and godspeed

You *could* go buy the 300mc coin and not check it for 4 months but you're probably gonna end up losing that $. Take caution

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

Some coins to watch out for when the #ETH ETF gets approved (there are many but these are the ones im interested in):

$ETH
$ENA
$PENDLE
$LDO
$ETHFI
$ALT
$PEPE

[CryptoBigMac @CryptoBigMac]

@alpha_pls Yes, This exactly what I’ve been saying since April

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: SEC asks Nasdaq, and Cboe to update spot #Ethereum ETFs filings, Reuters reports.