Another major Polymarket dispute happening right now.
This one is a little more ambiguous than the Saylor selling bitcoin resolution from earlier this month, in my opinion.
Both Trump and Iran announced there would be an MoU peace deal on June 15, the deadline date for one of Polymarket's "US x Iran permanent peace deal by" market.
This pushed the market for the June 15 deadline to resolve as "Yes," but traders are disputing the call, saying an MoU isn't permanent and that there are issues like nuclear access and sanctions that could muck up the deal.
Trump is now saying this morning that the US could go back to dropping bombs on Iran if it doesn't behave.
There are still 9 hours for the UMA vote to conclude, but over 99% of voting power has already voted to keep it resolved as "Yes," so it's essentially a done deal.
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I lived in Vietnam between 2015 and 2025. The scenario in this video just isn't applicable anymore.
Virtually every single person in VN already uses their bank apps and QR codes to instantly move money 24/7.
I've used them to pay for coffee in nice air-conditioned cafes in big cities and used them to buy fruit in rural wet markets.
And yeah, I know, don't trust banks and all that.
But your average Minh and Phuong simply aren't going to add an extra couple of steps to a payment system they already know, and that has worked for them for years.
I'm still in the 'bitcoin is a store of value' camp and don't see that changing any time soon.
I was surprised to find out that Nobitex wasn't already sanctioned by the US.
OFAC also sanctioned three other trading platforms and Nobitex's current CEO and three of its co-founders today.
One thing of note from the release, the Treasury reverted back to claiming that it had only seized "nearly $500 million" in Iranian crypto after Bessent got on stage at the NREF last Friday, boasting that it was nearly $1 billion.
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People who bought 'Yes' contracts on Polymarket for the 'Will Strategy sell bitcoin before May 31?' pool aren't happy today.
Strategy's latest SEC filing shows that it did indeed sell 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31.
But Polymarket is arguing after the fact that "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify," so the pool should result to 'No.'
The page still shows that the results are under final review.
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Before they added the additional context note after all was said and done, the rules stated:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Strategy did sell bitcoin before that deadline. Shouldn't matter that it wasn't disclosed til today.
"Just outright grabbed the wallets," Bessent said Friday. "Some of them may be typing in right now and might not realize that their wallet has been grabbed."
The U.S. government holds ~328,000 bitcoin, the largest known state holder in the world. At current bitcoin:native prices, that's worth just over $24 billion.
https://t.co/32E9sEXnlB
Texas has been taking some big steps to set up its bitcoin reserve.
Committee members joining Comptroller Hancock include the CleanSpark CFO, the CEO of Cormint, a law professor and a Texas state investment exec.
The state is also looking for a firm to help in acquiring, managing and custodying bitcoin for its reserve.
At the moment, the reserve has $10 million in IBIT, but its looking to move that over to direct BTC holdings later this year.
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Strive became the seventh-largest bitcoin treasury company after a fat 1,109 BTC buy.
It was coming sooner or later.
Coinbase has added less than 2,000 BTC to its balance sheet this year, while Riot has sold off ~4,300 BTC to help fund its AI/HPC data center pivot.
There's still a massive 7,800 BTC gap to reach #6 Bullish.
I've seen a handful of reports and headlines saying that the new ARMA bitcoin reserve bill will have the US buying 1 million bitcoin over the next five years.
I got a draft copy of the bill from Begich's offices, and it doesn't say that anywhere.
Word is the official text will drop sometime next week, so let's wait and see.
Here's what we know so far ๐
Minnesota is next in line for a CFTC lawsuit.
A 35-page omnibus bill signed last night by Governor Tim Walz included a provision that the CFTC called "the first outright ban on prediction markets in the U.S."
The bill would also extend criminal liability to payment processors, media organizations, and sports leagues that advertise, verify, or provide data tied to prediction markets.
The CFTC is flexing its "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction markets, telling states to keep their hands off.
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