CryptoCon

Long Term Bitcoin Technical Analyst || Creator of the Halving Cycles Theory

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[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Yesterday, I made the decision to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins as I feel data has grown exhausted, which has shifted my perspective from bullish to bearish.

I sold my Bitcoin at $112,596.64
I sold my Ethereum at $4,500.82

I have been holding both coins from these prices since November 2022 with no buys or sales in between:

Bitcoin: $16,558.55
Ethereum: $1,196.79

I believe the cycle top has already occurred as of August 2025 at 124k.

This won't be a popular opinion, just as it wasn't when I did the same thing in April 2021.

Will it be right? I have no idea. I am content with my decision and happy with my profits.

The full details of my decision are in my latest newsletter:

https://t.co/Y8nwE5JpDY

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The cycle bottom range is coming soon. Starting in November, lasting through January.

"But why does it have to be then? Why can't it have been in June?"

Every single important high and low (dots on the chart) has a specific date range in which it can appear. That includes the cycle bottom, and the range is strictly Nov - Jan.

So the cycle's prediction is still that there will be a lower low than 58k in that window.

While I do still have a lot of trust in the cycle, it's good to have some checks and balances. Even if this time is "different", I'd expect lower prices than what we see now, forming a significant higher low in that time.

I don't think cycle timing will go quietly.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Biggest rally between a phase 3 and 4 on weekly MFI ever.

Needless to say, a cooldown is warranted.

Phase 4 is underway and then finally, according to this observation, the bear market is complete!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The timeline is in a bullish craze, which lines up perfectly with the weekly Fisher Transform making a negative crossover in the local high zone.

Very few false signals here.

What many will like about this: the weekly Fisher Transform has never been this high outside of a bull market.

That doesn't mean things can't change. I'm still convinced a correction is coming toward the end of this year. Once we're through that window, I'll be much more bullish.

The cycle still being right after all this would be the ultimate example of it can still happen when everyone expects it, because no one does now.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

My hot take, which will either age like wine or milk, is that the cycle bottom is still not set.

To be clear, that's not what most evidence favors. But, in the event of a convincing false low which has both achieved cycle bottom levels and reached bull market start thresholds, it would be hard to tell the difference.

If Bitcoin blasts to 95k+, this take is going to look silly, but that's ok because I'd rather share my real thoughts.

There's always every excuse under the sun to say the cycle is broken or changed. (ETFs, institutions, fixed supply, etc.) But so far the cycle has remained on track despite all of these things.

Why would it suddenly break now?

And no, the June low does not complete the cycle; it strictly needs to be in Nov - Jan. So my full invalidation point is just after this time frame.

This allows at least the top two moving averages here to see a retest (44 - 50k).

Other possibilities are an equal or higher low to 58k that still offer good buying prices.

So if Nov - Jan is passing and Bitcoin is racing higher, then I will call a firm cycle change and go from there.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

I'm still under the impression that things are not as they appear...

But we'll know in the coming months if that's true.

Bitcoin has reached "first local high" territory across most metrics, including here on the Stochastic RSI phases.

Other phase 1s brought about lengthy and/or punishing corrections.

I'm a simple person: I want a significant low in Nov–Jan! Cycle timing stays on track... we have our normal 3 years of a bull market to follow.

At least, the data does suggest that we are reaching short-term exhaustion and that lower prices are very likely. How low is the question.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

If your hope was that this really has been a bullish breakout, you'd also want to see a support retest at the "Good Retest" line on short-term MVRV.

Making a higher high is one piece of reversing the trend, but forming the higher low is just as important.

Across many indicators, including here, bitcoin has reached local high territory.

Don't worry, I'm not going to be bearish forever. I just want a clean house for a clean bull market.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

One hot topic lately has been the US 10-Year Treasury Yield rate. Mostly because it had been going down for 40 years and now it's breaking out.

I think I've found a clear cycle structure for the US10Y tied to the overall market.

And no, it doesn't show a recession coming soon. Quite the opposite.

According to this cycle view, the 10-year rate will continue to rise until about 2060. Yeah... a very long time!

Interest rates going up or down don't imply prices go up or down. The important part is the pivot.

Recessions come about 180 months after a major top or bottom pivot in interest rates. Or about 2 - 3 years after the pivot points on the sine wave.

This puts the next recession starting around the end of 2034, the same date projected by the Quartercent Cycles Theory.

We are right in the middle of the expansion period now, the best economic times available.

The limiter here is that we've only seen two 40-year periods, but this is strengthened with intra-cycle evidence.

Here's the TLDR:
- 10-year interest rates higher for a long time (2060)
- Recession due end of 2034
- We're in the good times until then

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

It's been up and up for stocks since the 15-year high in 2024.

The next short-term high isn't until 2028 according to the Quartercent Cycles Theory. My AI stock portfolio has been doing well so far and I expect that to continue.

So here's my cycle view on all major categories:

Bitcoin: bear market ends in Nov - Jan (timewise)

Stocks: generally on the up and up for the next couple of years

Gold: Bear market until 2030 or 2031.

Everything has been right on track so far. Just need to see what Bitcoin does at the end of this year.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

@benjamincowen The cycle is good at hiding in plain sight

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Even the log growth curves I use weren't able to reach the cycle top band. Fortunately the red bands were still useful (layer 6).

I'm interested to see if price does hold here, when usually we would visit layer 2 (50k).

That would suggest squeezing from both ends, or, less price action on the upside and downside.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

I see this chart sometimes in support of a bottom, the Power Law Corridor.

Unfortunately, I do think this model will break to the downside, which can even happen from going sideways.

This has been the fate of many regression curve models, rainbow models etc that are paced too agressively.

Notice how quickly the tops are diminishing relative to the power law band. Price would need to reach 180k today to get there, and that number is only increasing.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Global M2 strength is a metric that says no go on the cycle bottom.

Sure, maybe the pattern has changed, but it had great accuracy as recently as the last cycle top (money flow end at red dot) and before that many times over.

We'd need a move below the low global cash influx line and a strong surge to mark a new phase 1.

Excellent accuracy for cycle bottoms.

This one is interesting to me because I would consider it an "outside source" rather than waiting for oversold weekly Bitcoin RSI, etc.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

I'm okay with seeming crazy or delusional for a time. Just sticking with my gut.

I have already said that this idea could be wrong. But my money has not made any bets. I still have made no crypto purchases/sales since August 2025.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

I realize the consensus is that the bull market is here, and now it is only a question of how quickly ATHs are reached.

But I see loose ends that need to be tied up.

Profit/loss metrics like SOPR never reached their cycle bottom zones. And to say the bull market is here again makes the claim that the cycle is dead (I've seen this countless times).

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

So many people never considered a cycle bottom outside of October, and yet the Halving Cycles Theory doesn't even include that as a date for the cycle bottom. The earliest is November, and it can be as late as January (as seen in 2015).

So then I ask: what's more likely? That the cycle is broken and some cycle bottom data is still left incomplete? Or... this is a convincing false bull market start still inside of a bear market?

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Here's my latest read on the volume profile:

84k is the start of strong resistance. Breaking through 98k would imply an easy move to new ATHs.

57k–80k is still very strong support. In the event it breaks at the end of the year, price should find strong support at 47k.

My price opinion is that Bitcoin will probably have trouble breaking through the 84k–98k barrier.

Price is most likely to at least return to the 57k–80k range, and in a more aggressive and traditional cycle scenario, break below it and find support at 47k.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Because of the shallow low, some indicators like Transaction Volume Strength didn't fully reset and are already back at cycle top levels of strength.

There have been instances of visiting this zone and it not being a cycle top (Sep 2012, Jan 2016, Jun 2019), but it is at least a place that triggers a deep pause.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Many data pieces like Logarithmic MVRV show gradually weaker cycle tops. Since this metric never had a chance to visit cycle bottom levels, what happens?

"It will just break the cycle top levels to the upside!"

Maybe...

This all just seems fishy to me.

November - January of this year will tell all. Blasting to new ATHs as some people expect? Or has everything we've seen generated a convincing false end to the bear market?

Again my opinion is that even if the lows are in, real optimistic price action is not due right away.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Here's a comparison worth considering:

2015 vs 2026

A similar story. Bear Market downtrend broken to the upside, and even a higher high made in July 2015.

And yet, a new low was made in August 2015.

By all accounts, the bear market was completely over after Jan 2015, even according to the Halving Cycles Theory.

I remain confident that Nov 2026- Jan 2027 will bring a signifcant low, even if that does not best 58k of June 2026.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Ok CryptoCon, so now is the 4 year cycle dead?

Sorry, not until after Nov - Jan can we determine if there's been a major cycle change.

I am now open to the idea of the cycle bottom being a higher low, which I would not count as a win for the Halving Cycles Theory. The window for the cycle bottom is strictly November 2026 - January 2027.

In the case of a higher low, it's likely that cycle timing has finally left shifted. If that were true, it'd put the next cycle top around April - June 2029 instead of October - December 2029.

There are still avenues for the cycle to remain fully on track as well, if the current move ends up reversing and market structure does not firmly change.

Even if 60k was the ultimate low, it doesn't mean I think everything is gunning for ATHs.

Here are my current approach and thoughts:

Not invested, not interested in investing currently, still waiting on a better opportunity whether that be a higher low, equal low, or even still, a lower low than 60k.

"Everyone's waiting on that! You'll be sidelined!"

That's fine. It's important to me to match my personal criteria rather than hop in because I'm scared of missing out.