Crypto Kindie

Crypto | Stocks | Macro | Trader
📘 Author of: Mind Over Market

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

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➡️ Overconfidence after win streaks
➡️ Social media FOMO + comparison
➡️ Chasing and hesitation cycles

Mind Over Market is a guide to protecting your edge with tactical drills, repeatable checklists, case-studies from the community, and brutal honesty about what really derails execution.

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📘 Paperback: https://t.co/1L0ohe8qXl
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Shout out to everyone in the @CryptoKindie fam — this was written for you ❤️

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Weekly

Not looking great tbh 😅

Why?
> Lost support @ 100k
> Lost the Weekly 50MA as bull run support
> Currently testing Golden Pocket support, an important Fib Retracement support zone on the HTF Weekly.
> Record ETF outflows.

BTC is macro bearish, for now.

Two major support levels to watch:
> 70Ks, previous ATH, already confirmed flipped to support last April.
> 50Ks, the Weekly 200MA is at 55k - this zone acted as a major pivot zone before the last leg-up to 100k.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC H4

First sign of strength on the 4 Hour, bullish divergence at 88k.

Local resistance at 94k - Bull will wanto to rip a hole through 94k and break this downtrend 🤞

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Daily

Bitcoin printing a Bull Div at macro support 👀

The last time #BTC printed a Bull Div on the Daily was April, when the Weekly 50MA was backtested and confirmed as support.

The Weekly 50 has been backtested 4 times, each time a Bull Div has printed on Daily RSI.

Same technical setup, similar macro context, just a few more cracks, dents, and scratches. The liquidity tap remains on.

Plan for both scenarios - just because the Weekly 50MA has survived 3 other backtests, it doesn't guarantee it'll hold a 4th.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$FET Daily

Breakout on the Daily 🫡

Retesting the Daily 50MA, bulls need to flip it to support and close the Daily in the 40s.

Confirm the flip and 60c is next up 🎯

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Weekly

Futures tapping the Weekly 50MA for the 3rd time this Bitcoin cycle, and holding to close the Week.

Let's see if spot can reciprocate on Sunday.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$RENDER Monthly

Bulls reclaiming key support @ $2.5, for now - nice bounce from trend support 💪

Plenty of room to the upside if bulls get going - even a test of wedge resistance is a 340% move.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$RENDER Monthly

Keep an eye on #RENDER over the next few months 👀

When a quality project gets obliterated, long term holders capitulate, and revisits historic macro support, that’s when you start paying attention - Buy the blood.

A bullish broadening wedge is forming on the Weekly after nearly two years of bleed. Price currently is tapping wedge support.

The $2.5 zone was key Monthly support - now lost after last month’s black swan. It’ll take time for #alts to recalibrate, not just RENDER. Hard to even tell who’s solvent after that kind of flush.

But once this distribution phase is complete… the next markup could be violent. Unless $2.5 is reclaimed short-term, keep an eye on the Golden Pocket @ $1.5 🫡

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$FET Monthly

Zoomed out for a better view:

> 70c is the next zone to watch, last summer's resistance.
> Monthly trend intact - 20c needed to hold, and it did.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$FET Daily

Breakout confirmed with volume 🔥

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$FET Daily

Technical breakout in progress:

> Bull Div on Daily RSI, now is where you want to see volume spike.
> Volume has been way up since the recent Black Swan event.

If you invert that chart, it'd be a sell all day.

Textbook setup, invalidated on a lower low.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$FET Daily

Technical breakout in progress:

> Bull Div on Daily RSI, now is where you want to see volume spike.
> Volume has been way up since the recent Black Swan event.

If you invert that chart, it'd be a sell all day.

Textbook setup, invalidated on a lower low.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Daily

This is what capitulation at $100k support looks like 👇

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

@Rendoshi1 I'd be happy with that, and a nice slingshot from out of the lows on volume - not to much to ask for really.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

@Rendoshi1 until it closes below on the weekly, it's testing.

A wick is ok, a close is not ;)
https://t.co/vSSeNzxxwy

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Weekly

Wicks are fine - a close under the Weekly 50MA is not.

If the 50 is lost, the real test will be the backtest. If that fails, it’s over for the cycle imo.

But context matters - every Bitcoin bear market has aligned with tightening liquidity and a stronger dollar.

Historically:
> Each major BTC top (2013, 2017, 2021) followed a liquidity squeeze - slowing M2 growth, rising real yields, and a stronger DXY.

> No bear market has ever started while global liquidity was expanding.

> Bitcoin peaks late in liquidity expansions and bottoms late in contractions.

Right now, liquidity is still expanding. Bitcoin has never entered a bear market under those conditions 🤷‍♂️

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Weekly

Wicks are fine - a close under the Weekly 50MA is not.

If the 50 is lost, the real test will be the backtest. If that fails, it’s over for the cycle imo.

But context matters - every Bitcoin bear market has aligned with tightening liquidity and a stronger dollar.

Historically:
> Each major BTC top (2013, 2017, 2021) followed a liquidity squeeze - slowing M2 growth, rising real yields, and a stronger DXY.

> No bear market has ever started while global liquidity was expanding.

> Bitcoin peaks late in liquidity expansions and bottoms late in contractions.

Right now, liquidity is still expanding. Bitcoin has never entered a bear market under those conditions 🤷‍♂️

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Weekly

Decision time for #Bitcoin ⏰

Every cycle, when BTC loses the Weekly 50MA as support, it hasn't been a dip - it's marked the transition into a bear market, correcting down toward the Weekly 200MA (now sitting in the $50Ks).

Price is testing the 50MA again.

Either bulls defend it as they have since March 2023 - or they don’t.

This pivot matters for #ALTs too.

If #BTC holds here, that likely marks the bottom across the board.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC Weekly

Decision time for #Bitcoin ⏰

Every cycle, when BTC loses the Weekly 50MA as support, it hasn't been a dip - it's marked the transition into a bear market, correcting down toward the Weekly 200MA (now sitting in the $50Ks).

Price is testing the 50MA again.

Either bulls defend it as they have since March 2023 - or they don’t.

This pivot matters for #ALTs too.

If #BTC holds here, that likely marks the bottom across the board.

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

Liquidity was already paper-thin on alt books before the Oct 10 liquidation event - it's even thinner now.

Depth on most mid-caps is down 40-60% since September. That means even small market sells now slice through bids.

The players who got wiped out on 10/10 haven’t replenished yet - or can't. That takes new inflows or new leverage, and neither's here.

Altcoins run on momentum. When momentum dies, liquidity drains, and price starts free-falling through air pockets.

So what you're seeing isn't a new 'collapse' - it's the same downtrend continuing through a thinner market.

Until spot and perp liquidity rebuild, every bounce is just redistribution 👍

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC

The 4-year cycle is extending.

But it’s less about the Bitcoin halving - and more about the liquidity cycle.

Cycle length keeps expanding: 368d > 526d > 548d - while ROI compresses.

The halving effect is fading - liquidity is the new driver.

Each cycle = more time, less multiple, deeper integration with the global liquidity tide.

The liquidity cycle keeps stretching because debt keeps growing.

More liquidity must be injected just to sustain the system - to roll debt, to backstop growth, to avoid deflation.

The US (and most G7 economies) can’t tighten meaningfully without breaking something.

Until the tap gets turned off, that liquidity will keep looking for a home.

And that home is still assets. #Bitcoin

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

$BTC | $GOLD

Bitcoin sits on macro support against gold:

> 7-year uptrend support
> Monthly structure + 50MA confluence
> Local demand zone retest

Gold has already completed its measured move into the $4K range - overdue for consolidation.

Meanwhile, BTC has spent a full year compressing in a tight range - a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition as old hands hand off to institutions.

Two months max before Gold dominance fades. 🫡

[Crypto Kindie @CryptoKindie]

@Rendoshi1 Nice post, the longer format suits you 😉