for anyone building in prediction markets right now:
1/ stop trying to out-polymarket polymarket. build something they can’t or won’t build
2/ ship ugly and fast. 3 weeks with real users beats 6 months perfecting a UI nobody trades on
3/ the bear sentiment is your friend. the teams quitting now are freeing up space for the ones that stay
4/ talk to traders not other founders. the telegram groups where actual PM traders complain about what’s broken is your roadmap
5/ pick one user type and obsess. the platform for everyone is the platform for no one
charge something from day one and see who’s ready to pay (much more important than hundreds or thousands of testnet users)
for anyone building in prediction markets right now:
1/ stop trying to out-polymarket polymarket. build something they can’t or won’t build
2/ ship ugly and fast. 3 weeks with real users beats 6 months perfecting a UI nobody trades on
3/ the bear sentiment is your friend. the teams quitting now are freeing up space for the ones that stay
4/ talk to traders not other founders. the telegram groups where actual PM traders complain about what’s broken is your roadmap
5/ pick one user type and obsess. the platform for everyone is the platform for no one
charge something from day one and see who’s ready to pay (much more important than hundreds or thousands of testnet users)
another great dataset for researching prediction markets:
> https://t.co/vIOrcwNNZp by @michael_lwy
combine it with:
> https://t.co/fRLN9RVKxb by @embrron
and you’ll unlock god-mode for the niche
God bless you, @embrron and @michael_lwy
Prediction markets are emerging as a distinct asset class, pricing probabilities on events that traditional markets don't capture cleanly
Wintermute is now providing liquidity on event contracts across leading venues
If you’re curious, Itachi used a “technique” called steam-basting that yields perfectly cooked eggs with fully set whites and a warm, runny yolk. Good to know.