Michaël van de Poppe

CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Here's a stat that breaks most people's mental model of #Bitcoin: its volatility is now lower than most of the Magnificent 7.

The "too volatile for serious money" objection, the one every allocator has used for a decade, is quietly expiring. Eric Yakes came on to explain what that unlocks.

@ericyakes wrote "Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution" and invests at Epoch in fintech companies built around Bitcoin adoption. His frame for where demand comes from:

"More and more people are gonna want to get exposure to the scarcest, most liquid commodity that you can hold on a thumb drive and move anywhere in the world."

What I appreciated: he refuses the lazy bull case. No power laws, no cycle charts, he judges Bitcoin on fundamentals and adoption, and his argument is that every major move up had a concrete driver. BlackRock's ETF started the last one. He thinks he knows what starts the next.

Thanks to @OKX for being todays sponsor of the show.

We cover:
- The volatility stat, and why it changes who's allowed to own Bitcoin
- How banks could start accepting Bitcoin as loan collateral, the quiet unlock almost nobody's pricing
- What actually drove price last cycle, and the next fundamental driver
- How the debasement trade connects Bitcoin and gold
- Why he ignores power laws entirely, and what he watches instead
- What he wants to see built in Bitcoin fintech

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Navigating the Crypto Landscape
03:46 - Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution
11:00 - Bitcoin's Challenges and Opportunities
18:51 - Bitcoin in Banking
28:32 - Regulation and the Clarity Act
32:45 - Stablecoins and Government Debt
35:42 - Debt Dynamics and Bitcoin
40:09 - Bitcoin as a Scarce Asset
43:18 - ETFs and Bitcoin Adoption
47:27 - Investing in the AI Landscape
53:21 - The Future of Bitcoin

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

I'm all-in #Altcoins.

I have been that for the past few years, I've traded a lot over the years.

I've been down 70% at some point.

Last few weeks, I've just flipped back into profits (and now down 15% again).

Despite that, my conviction into the digital assets industry and the protocols that I've invested in is strengthened.

There's a strong product-market fit.
Growth data on-chain is expanding quickly.
Regulation is supporting the adoption of payment rails.
AI Agents are quickly coming along to be transacting on those.

It's like we're back in 2017 and are seeing tremendous opportunities in terms of technological breakthroughs that we're able to invest in, just before everyone else jumps on the train.

I'd like to max bet on that, and I assume that we're in a bull cycle.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

100–200% runs on #Altcoins after this FOMC? It happened last time, within two weeks.

I don't think we'll see anything different this time.

Markets move in waves.

The first two weeks after the last FOMC meeting, big returns were made.
- $SUI +100%
- $NEAR +142%
- $ZEC +60%

After a run of two weeks, it's quite organic to assume that we're seeing some market-wide corrections taking place.

Those have now come to a close end.

I wouldn't be surprised that we're going to see similar moves coming out of this FOMC with runs of 100-200% on #Altcoins.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

$90,000–95,000 for #Bitcoin this quarter is still on the cards.

I was expecting to see a retest at $80,000, this hasn't happened today through FOMC.

Spot is aggressively buying #Bitcoin, perps are currently short on the markets.

That means that there's structural demand for the underlying asset.

If I'm zooming out on this regard, I don't think that we'll be seeing an acceleration coming for the markets.

Much rather, I would assume that we're still at the end stage of the correction and that making this higher low indicates that we're on edge for a big breakout upwards.

This means, $90,000-95,000 is still on the cards for this quarter.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@blknoiz06 It's quite easy. Markets go up rest of the year.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@DaanCrypto Yep, he knows that a continuation of higher interest rates is going to harm him more.

It's a tough cookie to crack for him, but I don't see a reason why there's not going to be bullish momentum on #Bitcoin and crypto from here.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@MadelonVos__ Deze mensen luisteren schijnbaar niet naar hun stemmers, anders zouden ze überhaupt dit Box 3 verhaal niet er door heen krijgen.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

They are stuck at this point.

On the one hand; increasing interest rates provides stimulus to the economy, which then negatively impacts inflation.

Ultimately leading towards a case where wages aren't following through and the middle class getting squeezed out being more angry towards the government.

I think that doing 25bps rate hikes won't be a problem, but at this stage they are most likely just keeping it as is for now as the most optimal scenario for the markets.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Spot has been buying #Bitcoin relentlessly over the past few days.

Perps have been used to hedge massively due to uncertainties (of what exactly).

Given that these events are now past us, and history often rhymes, I would expect to see that we're going to get a strong move from tomorrow/Friday onwards.

Why is that?

- FOMC Meeting is now done and there's no rate hike.
- Midterms are a big non-event.
- The War is being priced in to the extreme currently, so there's not much more to the upside to be priced in.
- Options expiry comes in on Friday, which is now being rolled over in these particular days.

Often;

☑️ Markets drop prior to a FOMC Meeting.
☑️ The bottom is found on a late Tuesday afternoon.
❔ After FOMC, we'll start to see a new upwards run for 1-2 weeks on the #Crypto markets.

I think that we've seen the end stage of the correction and are going to witness that run.

[Ted @TedPillows]

Spot has been bidding $BTC for 3 days now.

Yet, BTC isn't rallying because of heavy shorting on perps.

I think this is due to uncertainty around FOMC and US midterm elections, and once resolved, we could see a nice uptrend.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

I'd like to friendly remind you that I'm also nominated for this year's @binance Blockchain 100 and I'm currently in 3rd.

The only objective I have is to beat @QuintenFrancois.

He's one of my best friends, so in order for me to have some great banter, vote for me here:
https://t.co/Wuyn5Lzci9

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

Friendly reminder that I’m nominated for this year’s @binance Blockchain 100 and I’m currently #4!

Please take 2 seconds to vote for me! 🙏

Thank you!

https://t.co/mjqbDAFvnb

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Insane scenes at the FED Meeting.

They have kept rates unchanged, there are no rate hikes.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve officially pauses interest rate hikes, leaving interest rates unchanged at their October meeting.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Classic movements prior to the FOMC on #Bitcoin.

Slight rally upwards, immediate sell-off as markets continue to go risk-off.

No flip of the bullish structure, yet, meaning, that there's nothing to cheer about and we'll proceed by chopping around.

What am I looking at on the lower timeframes?

I'm monitoring whether we are going to be holding the $80,000 level for support tonight. If that fails, we'll go towards the marked area for potential deeper corrections.

If it does, and it flips back above this area (most likely $81,000), I'm turning bullish and we can cheer on for the next quarter.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

“#Bitcoin is a, you know, multi-trillion dollar asset that is permissionless. You can send it anywhere in the world without asking anybody for permission. Um, you can hold it on a thumb drive and you can hold billions of dollars doing that.”

I agree on this thesis, and it's the only asset that's out there that has these metrics.

That's why I also think that Bitcoin has become the best AI trade out there.

There's no reason to be bearish on Bitcoin at all, and there are numerous of arguments to be super bullish on Bitcoin for the foreseeable future, as more and more people will pick up this thesis.

Great conversation with @ericyakes on @new_era_finance.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Here's a stat that breaks most people's mental model of #Bitcoin: its volatility is now lower than most of the Magnificent 7.

The "too volatile for serious money" objection, the one every allocator has used for a decade, is quietly expiring. Eric Yakes came on to explain what that unlocks.

@ericyakes wrote "Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution" and invests at Epoch in fintech companies built around Bitcoin adoption. His frame for where demand comes from:

"More and more people are gonna want to get exposure to the scarcest, most liquid commodity that you can hold on a thumb drive and move anywhere in the world."

What I appreciated: he refuses the lazy bull case. No power laws, no cycle charts, he judges Bitcoin on fundamentals and adoption, and his argument is that every major move up had a concrete driver. BlackRock's ETF started the last one. He thinks he knows what starts the next.

Thanks to @OKX for being todays sponsor of the show.

We cover:
- The volatility stat, and why it changes who's allowed to own Bitcoin
- How banks could start accepting Bitcoin as loan collateral, the quiet unlock almost nobody's pricing
- What actually drove price last cycle, and the next fundamental driver
- How the debasement trade connects Bitcoin and gold
- Why he ignores power laws entirely, and what he watches instead
- What he wants to see built in Bitcoin fintech

Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Navigating the Crypto Landscape
03:46 - Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution
11:00 - Bitcoin's Challenges and Opportunities
18:51 - Bitcoin in Banking
28:32 - Regulation and the Clarity Act
32:45 - Stablecoins and Government Debt
35:42 - Debt Dynamics and Bitcoin
40:09 - Bitcoin as a Scarce Asset
43:18 - ETFs and Bitcoin Adoption
47:27 - Investing in the AI Landscape
53:21 - The Future of Bitcoin

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@mikemcglone11 It’s a do-or-die for #Bitcoin on every FOMC, but yet, here we are, still not at $10,000.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

It's funny that most of the markets align on a further correction to happen.

However, when I'm monitoring the charts.

- #Bitcoin sweeps the most important low and bounces back immediately.
- #Altcoins have seen important lows being swept

If those aren't holding, then yes, there will be a fast acceleration downwards.

On the other hand, if it does hold here, we're ending the correction and starting up a new uptrend.

Given that social media gives so much emphasis to the FOMC and expects it to be bearish to the markets (while last time we've had a strong rally straight after FOMC), I don't see a reason why we should be betting on further downside.

I remain fully allocated.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

The first level was hit and we're breaking upwards for $ETH.

That's a strong move, and there's no confirmation of a bullish breakout yet, but the build-up starts to get there.

Much rather than thinking that we're going to see another drop, the markets are at the most optimal sweet spot to hold and turn back upwards.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

#Ethereum is at an interesting spot.

There are multiple levels that this could hold onto.

The most obvious and best entry zone is beneath the recent low, of course.

I'd be max bidding everything beneath $2,300 as then I think that we'll reverse quite quickly.

From a trading standpoint, it's also at a level of support as we speak for some scalp trades.

What's next after this correction? Indeed, new highs.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@QuintenFrancois Perhaps the parliament needs to look at the case that they need to adjust their entire policy on taxes first before even stating anything like she did.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Absolute insanity in Dutch Parliament.

A Dutch member of Parliament states that it would be a wise idea to 'invite an Anthropic size company to the Netherlands to IPO here, so we can control their AI models and tax them here.'

Absolutely lunatics in the government.

[Corné Henderson @achutmoarwit]

#vragenuur
Ja, waarom nodigen we Anthropic niet uit om hier naar de beurs te gaan, zodat wij belasting kunnen heffen en vertellen wat ze wel en niet mogen.
Ik ken haar niet, maar dat moet #D66 zijn.

Anthropic ziet ze al aankomen 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤣

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@lucaruzza_92 I wouldn't expect less either, they are completely on a different planet.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

@JaccoLau2303 I don't think we'll see a further correction of $NEAR, much rather I expect that one to perform stronger than Bitcoin as the correlation is positive and altcoins generally have a higher return vs. Bitcoin in upwards momentum.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

#Bitcoin is doing what it needs to be doing in order to be getting a bullish breakout.

It's still prior to FOMC.

However, usually with these type of events, you'll see that there's a bottom on Tuesday, and then we start to grind upwards.

Bullish flip has happened, and as long as $80,500-80,800 holds, the markets can continue to run upwards.

I wouldn't be surprised if this runs to $82,200-82,500.