xindabus

Mercy Alpha

[xindabus @CryptoRichNEET]

Cryptocurrencies and NFTs are high-risk investments. Please DYOR. NFA

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE $48 BILLION MATH ERROR

Strategy Inc. just disclosed something extraordinary. They own 649,870 Bitcoin. That is 3.26 percent of every Bitcoin that will ever exist. Total cost: $48.37 billion.

They also disclosed the numbers that prove this cannot survive the next 90 days.

Here is the accounting reality they published but nobody is reading correctly.

Strategy has $54 million in cash. They owe $700 million per year in preferred stock dividends. Their software business generates negative cash flow. To pay dividends, they must raise $700 million in new capital every single year before buying a single additional Bitcoin.

They raised $19.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025. That money did not go to new Bitcoin purchases. It went to service the debt from previous capital raises. This is Ponzi finance by definition: borrowing to pay the interest on prior borrowing.

The machine only worked because their stock traded above the value of underlying Bitcoin. When shares traded at 2x net asset value, issuing equity increased Bitcoin per share for existing holders. That premium collapsed to 1.0x in November 2025. Issuing equity now dilutes shareholders. The recursive accumulation loop stopped functioning.

The preferred stock makes it worse. STRC started at 9.0 percent dividend rate in July. Management raised it to 10.5 percent by November. Every time the stock falls below $100, they increase the dividend to attract buyers. There is no ceiling. If confidence breaks, the dividend spirals until they cannot pay without selling Bitcoin. Selling Bitcoin destroys the thesis that justified the accumulation.

January 15, 2026 is the date that decides everything. MSCI announces whether companies with over 50 percent of assets in digital currencies get excluded from indices. Strategy is 77 percent Bitcoin. Exclusion is not discretionary. It is mechanical. JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in forced selling from index funds. Total outflows could reach $8.8 billion.

Fifteen to twenty percent of market cap liquidated by algorithms that do not care about fundamentals.

The October 10 crash was the preview. When Bitcoin fell 17 percent, order books collapsed 90 percent and $19 billion in positions liquidated in 14 hours. Strategy holds 3.26 percent of total supply. If they are forced to sell 100,000 Bitcoin to meet obligations, there is no liquidity to absorb it without breaking the market.

Strategy claims 71 years of dividend coverage. The math assumes they can sell $1 billion of Bitcoin annually without moving the price. October 10 proved that assumption is false. The market cannot absorb sovereign-scale selling during stress.

This is not about whether Bitcoin succeeds. Bitcoin will outlive Strategy Inc. This is about whether corporations can hold sovereign monetary reserves using quarterly refinancing and monthly dividend obligations. Sovereigns operate on infinite time horizons. Corporations operate on 90-day cycles.

By March 2026, the market delivers its verdict. Either Strategy restructures, shrinks, and survives diminished, or the entire corporate Bitcoin treasury model ends as a failed experiment. The timeline is exact. The mechanics are observable. The resolution is unavoidable.

What happens in the next 90 days will define corporate finance and monetary competition for the next 50 years. The numbers are already published. The outcome is already determined. Only the recognition remains.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Read the full deep dive analysis here - https://t.co/12arS0GUGH

Subscribe for daily premium newsletter!

[wispem-wantex @wispem_wantex]

It's pretty funny that we are converging on the reality that will upset the maximum amount of people:

LLMs are pretty good. They're not transformative, and also not useless. There are some tasks where LLMs will save you a lot of time. And that's it

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

US GOVERNMENT JUST GAVE WALL STREET THE KEYS TO BITCOIN AND YOU SLEPT THROUGH IT

October 6, 2025: Bitcoin hits $126,210. You celebrated.
November 15, 2025: Bitcoin at $95,602. You panicked.

What happened in between will rewrite global finance forever.

THE 40-DAY ROBBERY:

$19.13 billion in liquidations. 1.6 million traders deleted. Another billion gone in November. Fear Index cratered to 10. Reddit filled with suicide hotlines. Twitter declared bear market.

Meanwhile, institutions added $24 billion THIS YEAR to ETF holdings.

They weren’t selling. They were HUNTING.

THE PERFECT CRIME:

Long-term Bitcoin holders released 62,000 coins since October. Not to retail. To BlackRock. To Fidelity. To sovereign wealth funds buying in darkness while you watched price collapse.

Futures suppression. Coordinated FUD. Timed outflows of $3.4 billion to trigger cascading liquidations. Then silent OTC accumulation at $95K while normies sold at a loss.

Oldest trick in traditional markets. First time on YOUR blockchain.

BUT THEY LEFT EVIDENCE:

Pi Cycle Top requires $205K to trigger. We’re at $95K. Puell Multiple at 0.91 means miners selling below cost. MVRV Z-Score sitting at 2.06 neutral. Every single cycle-top indicator from 2017 and 2021? Completely silent.

This isn’t a top. This is a TRANSFER.

THE MATH DOESN’T CARE ABOUT YOUR FEELINGS:

21 million coins. Ever. 450 new coins daily after halving. $100 billion already in ETF vaults. Nation states stacking quietly. Supply shock approaching while demand explodes.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT:

Base case: $130K to $150K in 6 to 18 months when macro stabilizes. Conservative estimate when ETF inflows resume at $2 billion weekly.

Reality case: $500K by 2028 when institutional holdings cross 5 million BTC and central banks panic into position.

THE CHOICE:

Sell now at $95K to BlackRock. Buy back at $200K from BlackRock. Repeat peasant cycle forever.

Or understand that every massive correction in Bitcoin history preceded vertical moves that created generational wealth.

2017 had a 30% drop before 10x. 2020 had a 50% drop before 20x.

This time we have ETF infrastructure, sovereign adoption, and mathematical scarcity converging into a supply crisis.

The largest wealth transfer in human history is happening in real time.

Your move.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Full deep dive analysis here - https://t.co/v9OTmoGUcZ

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE DOLLAR DIES IN SILENCE

November 9, 2025: Gold $4,001. US Debt $38.02 trillion. Interest payments $1.2 trillion annually.

The inversion nobody saw coming just happened.

Central banks now hold MORE gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1971. Gold: 23%. Treasuries: 22%. This is not a trend. This is the fracture.

THE ARITHMETIC OF COLLAPSE:

Foreign holders dumped $518 billion in Treasuries since 2021. They bought 500 tonnes of gold this year alone. The math is genocidal: every 1% rate increase adds $380 billion to the deficit. We are paying more to service debt than to defend the nation.

China sold $52 billion in September. Russia’s $300 billion freeze taught the world one lesson: dollars are weaponized. Gold cannot be sanctioned.

WHAT THEY ARE NOT TELLING YOU:

The dollar’s global reserve share collapsed from 71% in 2000 to 58.4% today. BRICS nations now settle 25% of trade outside the dollar. Their payment system is live. Not theoretical. Live.

81% of all central bank gold buying comes from nations hedging against America.

THE NEXT 18 MONTHS:

Yields will surge 50-100 basis points as buyers vanish. Bond auctions will fail. The deficit will explode by $500 billion as rates compound debt. $5 trillion in emerging market wealth will rotate to gold, yuan, and regional currencies.

This is not recession. This is systematic demolition of 80 years of monetary architecture.

THE TRUTH THEY BURIED:

When your interest payments exceed your defense budget, you are no longer a superpower. You are a debtor with a printing press.

The rest of the world just realized it.

Gold standard returns by necessity, not choice. The fracture is irreversible. The math is final.

Watch Treasury auctions. Watch gold. Watch the system break in real time.

[Ronin @DeRonin_]

How to find projects on early stage???

interviewed my fren who has made:

24x on $MEGA
$100k on $FF
$1M by pre-market on Monad OG role

and he revealed me his research secrets ↓↓↓

method 1: copypaste other success researchers

> make a list of KOLs (researchers) who previously found projects at an early stage
> put them on tracking in Pro X using filters
> check their tweets every day, who they interact with
> evaluate the project based on the points that were in the previous ones

method 2: search by using keywords

> open Pro X and click on "Search"
> use filters to set keywords
> it can be: "narrative's name", "early role", "still not funded", etc.

all words that are somehow related to similar words

then filter who among the success researchers has already interacted with them

method 3: search using fundraising

> make a list of VCs who have fundraised for successful projects
> use Cryptorank to view the projects they have fundraised for
> evaluate what stage of fundraising they are at, and why they invested

method 4: networking + github search

> take an active part on different communities
> form the circle of good guys who are going to share with you their moves
> follow githubs from @0xMoei, @Zun2025 etc.

probably these are the 4 main methods that help me

and will definitely help you, the main thing is to spend enough time

i hope this was valuable for you

share with me how you search for early projects ⬇️ (appreciate it)

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE $28 TRILLION LIE: Why Your Entire Portfolio Dies Wednesday

America’s 41-day government shutdown isn’t a political crisis. It’s a systematic wealth extraction event, and November 13th is detonation day.

Every analyst promised you five catalysts this week. All five were manufactured fantasy. No FOMC meeting exists. No $1.5 trillion print is coming. No crypto bill passes gridlock. The only reality? CPI data drops Wednesday, and the 3.1% forecast will annihilate everything you own.

HERE’S WHAT THEY HID FROM YOU:

Bitcoin didn’t randomly fall 19% from $114k. The correlation is mathematical: government shutdowns create -0.4 coefficient destruction across all risk assets. Not sometimes. Always.

While you waited for moonshots, $10.5 billion evaporated from GDP. Military families can’t access paychecks Thursday. The S&P already bled 2% in silence. Nobody told you.

THE HISTORICAL PATTERN EVERYONE MISSED:

Yes, 2018 saw 96% Bitcoin rallies post-shutdown. Yes, 2019 delivered 157% gains. But those shutdowns lasted 21 days average. We’re at 41 days. The math doesn’t scale, it inverts.

THREE PATHS FORWARD:

25% probability: Miraculous resolution plus cool CPI yields 12% crypto surge
55% probability: Gridlock continues, total market paralysis
20% probability: CPI breaks 3.2%, triggering 10% portfolio obliteration

THE ONLY MOVE THAT SURVIVES:

Exit all risk positions before Wednesday 8:30am Eastern. Rotate capital into money markets and physical gold immediately. This isn’t speculation. This is mathematical certainty based on 40 years of shutdown correlation data.

The largest wealth transfer in modern history executes in 72 hours. Position accordingly or become the liquidity.

Wednesday reveals who understood game theory and who believed internet promises.

Your move.

[wale.moca 🐳 @waleswoosh]

The best advice I received when starting this account was:

Think of everything as a long-term game.

This means that the individual W's and L's along the way really don't matter that much.

Had a viral post? Cool, no one will care a week from now.

Tweeted something stupid and got hate? Don't worry, people will move on the next day.

Received a six-figure airdrop? Amazing, but gonna feel less amazing next month.

Lost money on perps? Well, it's really not that dramatic.

There is a bigger picture

[VLAD HOSTS THE BEST PODCAST IN BITCOIN @Vladcostea]

I understand that more people are paying attention to Zcash now

So let me say this again:

Zcash is basically Bitcoin with the latest version of the Zerocash protocol, which was proposed for Bitcoin in 2013 and took over a decade to refine.

The biggest challenge, and the reason why Zcash didn’t really take off since launching in 2016, was user experience and the scalability of ZK SNARKs.

You see, Zcash started from having the state of the art privacy. Then backtracked to make it usable on everyday devices.

Until a couple of years ago, it was technically impossible to even have shielded Zcash transactions on a mobile wallet – due to the computation requirements and the hardware you needed to run the software on.

But now there’s @zashi_app and @EdgeWallet and hopefully many more wallets that make it easy to send and receive shielded transactions on the go.

Thanks to these optimizations, Zcash is finally ready for mass adoption. It finally became what it was supposed to be in 2016 when it launched as an altcoin.

This is why this bull market is different and the chartists are wrong when they compare with past performance. They don’t know the technical details and the history of the project. They don’t understand that real adoption is happening via DeFi integrations, with users swapping into shielded ZEC to break the link between their trades.

The future is also bright, with Tachyon scaling the protocol to billions of users without any privacy tradeoffs. Shielded assets are on the roadmap too.

Zcash is the best research team in all of crypto. Started out with something purely theoretical (Zero Knowledge proofs) and made them practical. Refined their code to the point that it can be mass adopted. And through this journey, remained 100% compatible with Bitcoin – which means that even today, Bitcoin can just soft fork the latest version of the Zcash protocol.

Thanks to Zcash Bitcoin currently has ZK rollups (Citrea, Alpen), shielded client side validation, ZK coins, and the Zside drivechain.

Thanks to Zcash, Ethereum could build Tornado Cash, Railgun, ZK STARKs & all sorts of rollups.

Of course, it’s the price that makes more people pay attention. But the problem is that these folks don’t have the proper context and didn’t spend more than 10 minutes doing some research about what Zcash is and what it does.

Some may say that Zcash is overvalued and finds itself in a bubble today. I disagree: Zcash is the most influential privacy project in the space and deserves to be a top 10 crypto coin. It’s much more useful than Ripple, Cardano & Dogecoin combined. It’s more ambitious in scope than Monero and Litecoin. And I believe it’s only getting started.

If you’re new here, I strongly recommend that you listen to my interviews with @zooko and @ebfull – if anything, spend a few hours of your time to learn about what you’re investing in before you put any money into this project.

This goes way beyond speculation and NGU fantasies. It’s about the future that we want for this space and how we wish Bitcoin turned out to be.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

It is not often I read something that blows my mind, but this did. 🤯

I would highly recommend taking the 5 minutes to read it, and then an additional 5 minutes to pause and reflect to consider all the ways our world is about to radically change.

h/t @matthew_pines

[Minty @DeFiMinty]

My Favorite Quotes on CT

@thiccyth0t: Playing a game that wasn’t meant for you is a common tragedy in this industry.

@maybeltr: Optimism isn’t naivety. It's a strategic and necessary response to techno nihilism.

@0xaporia: It's less about outsmarting everyone and more about having the risk tolerance to step in where others won't.

@LomahCrypto: Concede unfavorable situations.

@gammichan: Happiness is relative, a man in a jail cell is joyous to just see sunshine for 5 minutes.

@herxbt: Self-confidence is the most important quality to becoming a successful trader.

@apewoodx: There's alpha in doing things others cant and wont do

@Trader_XO: The waiting game is what many screw up.

@0xkyle__: I have become an infinitely better trader trying to be less smart, top blasting, and feeling the vibes.

@dawnnitee: Money compounds quickly when continually making the correct choices instead of hyper-gambling chasing making it all in one play.

@tulipking: Writing is thinking made visible. Every incoherent trade thesis you have seems brilliant until you try to explain it in writing.

@Stoiiic: Grit is a prerequisite.

@ferbsol: Not losing is winning.

@CryptoCred: Survival is an actual edge in crypto, but you need to stick around long enough to make the most of it.

@redphone: Risk isn't the Enemy. Servitude is.

@howdymerry: Your tech is worthless if no one cares.

@EmperorBTC: Trade everyday like it's a new market cycle, needing new reading and forget all opinions.

@mellometrics: The best trades usually feel uncomfortable, that’s why most people miss them.

@crypticd22: The market is always right.

@Grantblocmates: If something’s polarising, it’s worth paying attention to. whether it makes sense or not.

@TraderMercury: Remind yourself that opportunity is abundant.

[xindabus @CryptoRichNEET]

@grok SuperGrok user. First screenshot share → “we’re busy”. Vision pipeline not honoring subscription. Please fix.

[Mizer @MizerXBT]

Risk Management and Emotional Trading

Many of you often ask me how I’m able to control my emotions or avoid panicking while managing “such large” positions, or while sitting on large uPNLs.

To do that, several requirements have to be met:

First of all, NEVER, I repeat, NEVER, will you be able to control your emotions if you’re in a trade with 100% of your portfolio, and even less if you’re leveraged.

I think this is the most important thing, and it’s the reality. On CT and in the crypto world in general, it’s very normalized to hyper-gamble your money. That’s because of the few stories out there about people making a ton of money in a very short time starting from a very small amount.

And it’s real: there are cases of people who, with less than $1,000, have reached $1M or even more in a very short time. What people don’t think about is that these stories are much louder than the stories of those who lose everything trying. For every hero, there are a million zeros.

People message me asking for help with a trade they’re trapped in. Many are in panic and say they don’t know what to do, they can’t sleep, they’re having a really bad time… And do you know what they all have in common? They’re all in the trade(s) with 100% of their portfolio or with heavy leverage.

So it’s actually easy to isolate the X: to control your emotions and be colder when holding or sitting on large uPNLs, you have to respect two basic elements: first, discipline; and second, don’t over-risk.

This is what allows me to go through drawdowns and "hard" situations. I always have the certainty that even if the trade goes in the WORST possible way, it will never mean a too significant loss for me, much less knock me out of the game.

Regardless of that, I trade a decent size, and in some situations I feel anxious, nervous, or start doubting certain things, but that’s normal. Nobody wants to lose money and nobody likes losing money. The less crazy risk you take, the easier it will be to practice the discipline of staying cool and not letting your emotions win.

Once you respect these elements and you’re able to control your emotions, keep in mind that to handle large uPNLs or maintain big positions through chop, you need conviction.

Conviction is something you can copy from others, but it will always be weak. It can work for short trades or trades that go well from the start, but when things get ugly you’ll feel lost and doubts will creep in because the conviction you placed in that trade isn’t yours.

This doesn’t mean you can’t “copy” someone’s trade or can’t base your trade on another person’s thesis. But if you decide to copy, it must always be CONSCIOUS: even if you’re copying someone else, you need to truly agree with their thesis and have your own conviction about the trade.

Even if you’re copying or drawing inspiration from someone else’s trade, you need to understand it, agree with it, and check whether you also have enough conviction to take that trade. If you just do blind copy-trading, when difficult moments arrive your conviction will be weak and doubts will follow.

Beyond all this, I want to stress the importance of risk management, because I think it's never enough on our industry.

It doesn’t matter if you have conviction, it doesn’t matter if you’re very good, it doesn’t matter if your win rate is 100%, it doesn’t matter if you copy the best trader, it doesn’t matter if you’re on an incredible streak.

If you apply poor risk management, you’ll lose everything. That’s how it is. This isn’t an opinion; it’s a fact. It doesn’t matter if you’ve won 37 trades in a row, if you bet too much and put yourself in a position to lose everything or far too much, and it happens, you’ll be out. And it won’t matter how good you are, your track record or anything else.

That’s why it’s so important that even if you think you’re skilled and very good you ALWAYS respect risk management.

It’s true what they say: this isn’t a sprint; it’s a marathon.

And over the course of this marathon opportunities will appear from time to time that you’ll only be able to seize if you keep running. If you expose yourself to getting kicked out entirely, you’ll lose every future opportunity.

[Jampzey @Jampzey]

mystery whale just longed over $150m of BTC and $130m of eth on hyperliquid

opened an account on @vooi_io to copy trade this wallet and see

1) are they directionally right and worth copy trading
2) what fees are like vs. my traditional trading on hyperliquid
3) if airdrop points end up being valuable at tge

swapped around using @useTria to get fund son vooi

let's see how this plays out

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: The Great Capitulation — Bitcoin’s Core Ideology Is Now Collapsing

They said it would never happen. They were wrong.

A silent, seismic shift is underway. Since July 2025, Bitcoin whales have executed a staggering $3,000,000,000+ in-tax-free conversions, moving their self-custodied coins into BlackRock's IBIT ETF. This is not mere profit-taking. This is a fundamental surrender.

The Mechanism They Said Was Impossible:
The SEC's approval of "in-kind" creations has unlocked a loophole. Whales can now swap their BTC for ETF shares directly …triggering ZERO capital gains taxes, bypassing a 37% liability. The very system Bitcoin was built to dismantle has now become its most attractive vault.

The Unthinkable Result:
BlackRock now custodies approximately 800,000 BTC. That is 4% of the entire Bitcoin supply. In three months, a 15-year trend of relentless self-sovereignty has officially broken. The revolution is being institutionalized.

The Profound, Unspoken Truth:
The ultimate irony is complete. The whales … the staunchest believers in decentralization … are now the very actors centralizing power within Wall Street's fortress. They are trading censorship resistance for collateralized loans and seamless estate planning. They are choosing convenience over core principles.

The data is verified. The volume is historic. The implication is paradigm-shifting.

This is not just a market event. This is the moment Bitcoin's narrative was permanently rewritten. The battle for the soul of the protocol is over. The banks won.

The question is no longer if you will adapt. The question is: What remains of the revolution when its generals have defected to the empire?

Watch what happens next.

[Donnie Discerned @DonnieDarkened]

@ShadowofEzra The reptilian thing is a pipeline towards Gnosticism.

That’s why David Icke pushes it, because the end goal is that the reptilian architect of “the matrix” is the “demiurge” or Yahweh.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Gold rose over $100 today, now trading above $4,315. Silver rose over $1 and is trading above $54. Gold is up 64% and silver 87% so far this year. Many mining stocks have tripled or more. If you don’t think this portends an imminent dollar and financial crisis, you’re in denial.

[Roman @Roman_Trading]

$BTC H4 continued

I believe our once double bottom failed and is now turning into a consolidation descending triangle for lower.

Not seeing any other signs of reversal and trend is currently down.

Odds are the wick fills. If it does, $alts are in for some serious pain.

[ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ @DeFiTracer]

October 2017 = DUMP
October 2021 = DUMP
October 2025 = DUMP

Same setup. Same structure. Same chart.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you...

[bishara @bishara]

GOLD going parabolic should worry you more than anything else going on in this world

and NO you shouldn't just fomo buy here

something bigger is happening behind the scenes

[SpartacusHODL 🟠🌋⚡💊 @Spartacus_HODL]

@caprioleio Fading the quantum fud

It will likely never even be physically possible to build a working QC that has practical applications