My $SPY thesis worth reading 👇
Over the past few weeks we have seen nothing but chop from indexes. $VIX still sits around $15 and the market seems like it has no idea which way it wants to go. Here's a couple reasons why this is happening.
The first one is AI...it's carrying this entire market on its back. Hyperscalers are on pace to drop north of $700B in capex this year and global AI spend is pushing past $2.5T. That's the engine behind every new high we've printed. But it's also the exact thing making everyone nervous.
Here's the tension nobody wants to say out loud and the one I personally find most interesting. Roughly $400B is flowing into infrastructure and only about $100B is coming back as actual enterprise revenue.
Then the macro on top. Fed meets Sept 16, the market's leaning toward a cut but the data keeps flip-flopping and Warsh isn't handing anyone forward guidance to lean on. Who wants to make a big directional bet two weeks ahead of that? Now layer in the seasonal... mid-August to mid-October is historically the ugliest stretch of the year, and we're in a midterm year on top of it.
Put it all together and that $15 VIX makes sense...
On the chart, I think we will come down to fill that gap but dropping any further seems highly unlikely. There's a chance we could be stuck between 750 and 780 for the next few months.
Massive bearish divergences on my weekly and monthly timeframe for $SPY / solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr.
The last time my weekly signals flipped bearish, we had a 5% drop down to 720.
The time before that we had about a 10% drop down to 630.
Just be careful up here and take it level by level is all I am saying.
I think we see about a minimum 3% drop in September-October. Could be more. We will evaluate signals when that time comes.
My goal for now is to target calls for a short term bounce near 760 for a short term move back up to 774-775 to target November puts. Eventually I do think we will get the move down to 747-750 which is where I will try for calls.
You must be flexible in this environment or the market will chew you up and spit you out.
solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY #SP500 $ES_F $QQQ $NDX
Sniper's solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr 0DTE Tactical Plan for Aug 31, 2026
Learn to make $1K a day with proper risk mgmt. using these institutional levels.
$SPY traders can use the exact same levels with 2-point OTM strikes.
Market Environment:
Spot: 7685, Friday Close: 7711, ATM IV: 16%, Straddle: $28
SPX is gapping down ~26 points from Friday’s close. 7705 - 7711 is the key overhead battle, reclaim favors a gap fill; rejection keeps sellers in control. With 16% 0DTE IV, don’t chase the gap. Wait for confirmation.
IF SPX GOES UP:
Call Trigger: 7705
I want 5-min acceptance above 7705, preferably followed by a hold/retest.
Stop / Invalidation: 5-min close back below 7695.
Then follow the chart.
IF SPX GOES DOWN
Put Trigger: 7675
A 5-min acceptance below 7675 tells me the opening gap is holding and sellers remain in control.
Stop / Invalidation: 5-min reclaim above 7685
Then follow the chart.
Sideways: Average vol.
Potential 0DTE Iron Condor:
Sell 7645P/7625P
Sell 7730C /7750C
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