$BTC Moon Cycle Update - October 29th - First Quarter Moon ๐
You've made it! Through the void of the dark moon phase into the bright one, once again.
In my life (not just the markets) this time feels a little raw, tiresome, challenging, and taxing to endure.
Probably doesn't help to have market price action do the same thing ๐. But as we expected, there was choppy price action during the dark phase.
On this First Quarter Moon ๐we should enter a period of enthusiasm in the markets with energy returning. I expect bullish action.
Not to mention, October, November and December all have SUPERMOONS which should make things extra intense -- this is when when a full moon aligns with the moon being closest to the earth in its orbit!
If you haven't read my moon updates before, the theory (which has been working) is this:
๐Dark Moon (๐๐๐) [space between boxes] = bearish
๐Bright Moon (๐๐๐) [yellow boxes] = bullish
We find ourselves at a critical point in the markets:
โ๏ธ The 4 year cycle (if it exists) is ending now-ish
โ๏ธ Q4 is expected to be bullish
โ๏ธ When altseason happens historically, it happens in the final stages (i.e. now)
And so, amidst all the swirling thoughts and emotions of this space:
- doom / gloom
- it's a bear market already / it's just getting started
- altseason / no altseason
- shill / hype
- ego / i'm-right-ism
- sell this it hasn't moved / buy this it's running
- take profit / wait for more
- 4-year cycle alive / 4-year cycle dead
You will need to clear your mind and trust guidance and intuition to guide you through these crazy times.
These markets are brutal and unexpected. For the last peak in Q4 '24 / Q1 '25, memes topped in november, alts topped in early december, btc topped in january. The ultimate fakeout.
This means you need to be disciplined in order to survive the next wave of euphoria, whenever it comes.
As I've alluded to before, if we get bullish action during the dark period after the next 14 days (starting Nov 11 Last Quarter Moon ๐) this is a sign of "the end being near". I've also noticed major peaks (esp altcoins) happen around the new moon (during the dark phase). ๐
Other than that, my guess is as good as yours. I'll be here calling it as I've observed, but moon cycles are just one small piece to the story.
I use them to help manage expectations during short-term price movements, and determine if the trend is changing if something unexpected happens.
I appreciate you being here and following along, truly hope these analyses have helped you in some way.
๐ For this First Quarter Moon, put into action what you need to accomplish to reach your goals! Ideas are just ideas, thoughts are just thoughts, until you put them in the material plane.
If you're working on something, just getting it started is the first step to success. Messy starts are beautiful.
So do the thing, complete the chore, write the beginning sentence, build the first piece, take the first step.
I hope you are well, talk next week.
- Drazzzzz
It scares me to see everyone bullish and promoting that $BTC not in 4 year cycle while BTC is manipulated and trump in office. Is it not euphoria already when we have 3x and 5x leverage products ? Is everyone not betting that market will keep going up ? Its TOP indicator imo
$SBET is below NAV and people think its a good sign ๐
What happened to buy back ? Below NAV is not a good sign it never was , specially when $BMNR is positive mnav.
And then there is โฆ.. ๐
โThe ticker is SBETโ ๐คช
Transparency is important.
How much $ETH do they actually own?
How much $ETH is staked?
How many shares have they sold?
How much money did they raise?
How much of the ATM remains?
Whatโs their average cost per $ETH?
$SBET / @sharplink answers these questions every week.
Why doesnโt anyone else?
NEW: Sharplink now holds ~360,807 ETH
Between July 14โ20, Sharplink acquired ~79,949 ETH for ~$259M at an average price of ~$3,238
This buy marks the largest *weekly* ETH purchase to date
ETH-per-share (โETH Concentrationโ) has risen to ~3.06, up 53% since June 2
~$96.6M remains available for future ETH acquisitions
Cumulative staking rewards have reached ~567 ETH
The asset is $ETH, the ticker is $SBET
Tom and $BMNR and we at $SBET might engage in a cut-throat one-upmanship, incessantly working to out buy each other stacking up the ETH.
Or we might hold hands and collaboratively explain the paradigm shift to decentralization and how it will affect (and supercharge) the legacy financial system, the web and the global economy.
Or both.
But we will both compete, hard. Game on.
Another big week for $SBET.
From what I can gather, $SBET should have approximately 370,000 $ETH in their treasury.
They last reported having 280,706 on July 13.
This week, they have acquired an additional ~89,000 $ETH ($293.6M).
(so far)
$SBET Update ๐๐
If the volume stays at the current level or increases, $SBET will use all $5B of ATM within 60 trading days. That's by Oct 10.
Assuming 2.5M shares (5%) sold each day. If more aggressive or volume increases or price goes to $50, we will complete the $5B ATM in August.
Dilution:
125M shares at average $40/share.
Or $143M at $35/share.
Or, only 100M shares at $50/sh.
We are going to have 1.5-1.6M ETH. Annual yield $620M USD at 4% blended yield with ETH at $10K. Capital gains $12B+.
$SBET needs $21B to own 5% of ether network. Think bigger ๐ข
PT: $81-$162
UPDATE $SBET ๐
It appears that SBET has reached its maximum authorized share count. 100M common + 15M preferred = 115M fully diluted
Because of higher share prices, we had to dilute lessโgood news for all shareholders.
Next, SBET proposes increasing the maximum share counts from 100M to 500M, with 15M preferred.
Total: 515M (VOTE this month)
I expect them to use all of it, depending on how low ETH stays. They will BUY as long as ETH is below $10,000. Like MSTR, it's a long game for @sharplink
In the ST, because of no ATM, the price can shoot up to $50. The $30-$50 range is what we can expect to see until the next, much larger ATM begins.
1M ETH treasury is definitely under consideration.
@ii_couk not allowing $BMNR on their platform. Company now has 3b plus mcap, holds more than 500m worth of Etherium, Peter Theil took 9% position. And Tom Lee @fundstrat is the chairman.
What a shame, I will be moving to IG asap.
Now that the US markets are closed, I can turn my attention back to $BTQQF which is still trading in Canada as $BTQ.NE
It still is dirt cheap as a quantum name. Its announcement today of the hiring of Dr. Sean Kwak to speed up commercialization efforts, their Radical acquisition from last September (which was already in the process of commercializing its tech), their recent spate of partnerships. Theyโre already generating revenues now, have a strong patent portfolio and a solid technical team around the world. And theyโve been working in the space for nearly 10 years.
Its market cap even after the run in the first half of this year is $688M.
$QUBT has fewer people, fewer commercialization efforts, more competition (arguably), and is held by 15% of insiders.
Yet, QUBT has a $3.3B market cap.
There was someone talking about quantum this morning on CNBC and he defended the quantum valuations because investors realize theyโre getting in early now for a sector thatโs going to be critically important in 5 years at much bigger valuations.
I agree. But back to BTQ.
$BTQ is held 44% by insiders and the Founder/CEO has been steadily buying shares since May.
Even after the recent run, Iโd argue BTQ is MUCH further along in its development than QUBT and with less competition. It should have at least QUBTโs valuation which is 4.8x higher than where it trades today.
Fair value for BTQ today is at least $32/share and not $7. (In Canada, it should be trading over C$40/share.)
As time goes on this year, with more commercialization announcements, a Nasdaq uplisting, and further partnership developments, it should not just close that QUBT gap but go well past it on the merits of the new announcements.
@Rex_Finance Each miner has unique business model. They all do fine. For cleanspark to succeed other doesnโt need to go in bin. They all will give phenomenal gains. I am in CLSK, MARA and IREN โฆ we are in time where you can make gains to retire on.