Soren

All is flux.
I am only responsible for what I said in the past 60 minutes.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

寫得挺好

[K1ko妹妹的爸比 @lilk1kopops]

《币安与中国资金外逃美元的最后通道》

币安正在成为中国资金外流的最大单一节点。这不是商业问题，是政治问题。在这场战争里，自以为是玩家的散户其实是耗材。

1/ 币安已经是中美金融战的一只白手套。

2025年3月，阿布扎比主权基金背景的MGX向币安注资20亿美元，币安史上第一笔机构投资。

这笔钱不是用美元付的，是用特朗普家族World Liberty Financial发行的USD1稳定币付的。

把这条链路是中东主权资本 → 特朗普家的币 → 入股币安。

CZ从一个无国界加密信徒，变成了这个三角结构里的中间人。他现在的处境，跟当年的怡和、太古这些洋行没区别，这个时代的主权玩家的白手套。

下一个问题不是BNB能涨多少，是中国监管的铁拳什么时候落、以什么形式落。当一个交易所成为资金外流的最大漏水点，它就不再是商业实体，是国家安全议题。

2/ 币安能吃掉吴忌寒BIT的用户，吃不掉富途老虎的用户。

这是两个完全不重叠的人群。

富途、老虎、IBKR的用户：港股上市公司高管、央国企管理层、传统企业主。这帮人要的是美国绿卡、美国银行卡、合法的海外身份。加密货币对他们是风险，不是机会。

币安的用户就是现在还留在币圈的这批人。

币安推稳定币支付体系的真正意图，是扩张，是留客，让加密流动性不要外流。

当你可以直接用USDT在全球完成美元支付，你就没必要把钱OTC换出去了。钱不出圈，就还是币安的钱，就是美元，就是美国的钱。

3/ 经典创业死局：你做大了，巨头抄你怎么办？

加密行业最大、也是唯一被验证的PMF就是交易。

链上交易、所内交易、无许可交易——所有人都在做交易。

交易这个赛道，巨头早就出现了。币安就是那个巨头。

所以很早以前，剩下的所有加密创业，本质都在回答一个问题：你到底是to what创业？

如果你做的是加密项目，你做大了被币安抄掉怎么办？被它收购，是不是你最好的归宿？

如果答案是被巨头收编、被巨头战投是最好结局，那你做的不是企业，它也不是朝着真实有盈利出发的，只是为了资产发行套现。

主权政府早就看透这个结构了。它们的玩法不是跟你这些小项目玩，是直接拿捏生态巨头：先让你做大，再入股你、招安你；先抓、再放、再收编。

每个国家的政治操作都一样，基本到不能再基本。

4/ 龙头已定，其余皆为燃料。

既然交易的龙头已经是币安，那么逻辑链就闭合了。

其他所有项目都是在给币安贡献手续费和资产发行链条。
发币是骗局。空气资产是骗局。所谓生态是骗局。

它们的共同终点，都是给币安这个龙头输送燃料。

打个比方你们就懂了：一个行业被腾讯垄断之后，你做第二个微信有什么意义？

一个离岸版微信、一个链上版微信、一个点对点微信、一个海外支付版微信——全是没有意义的重复建设。

你们这些项目之于币安，就像小程序之于微信。看起来你是独立创业，实际上你只是它生态里的一个寄生格子，源源不断地给它供血。

行业只跑出来一家公司。其余的几千个项目，是这家公司的成本中心，不是竞争对手。

5/ 这个世界保护的是企业家，不是散户。

记住一个基本事实，不管在中国还是美国，这个世界的规则是为企业主写的，不是为赚工资的散户写的。

企业主雇人、纳税、创造就业，所以国家保护他。

散户只是流动性，是博弈里的水。水不需要被保护，水只需要被使用。

别天真地以为加密货币能让你逃避监管。

你以为你藏在链上很安全？中国政府一纸协查函发到交易所，你的所有信息，地址、流水、对手方，全部公开。

链上不是法外之地，链上是透明账本。 你以为的匿名，是监管眼里的全裸。

6/ 真正的杀招在资产定性上。

讲一个最现实的场景，所有在体制内、国企、上市公司的人都该想清楚。

假设有一天你涉案，被留置调查。

情况A：你名下有美股账户。

这事可大可小。

从资金来源看，中国有合法的每年5万美元购汇额度，蚂蚁搬家式换汇游走在灰色地带但不构成犯罪。你持有美股是合法投资行为，你顶多是违反了所在单位或政府部门的规定，是纪律问题，不是刑事问题。

还有回旋余地。

情况B：你名下有加密货币交易所账户。

性质完全变了。

因为在中国，加密货币OTC换汇是明确违法的。不管你在账户里做了什么，资金来源这一关你就过不去。

你的性质从违反规定上升到了犯罪线索。

没有回旋余地，只有深挖。

7/ 币圈结束后，会新发明一个票圈。

把时间轴拉长看，现在这轮宏观经济引领已经接近尾声。

这一轮加密熊市很快会结束，而股票的短期牛市，大概也就是最后一波了，它吸走的正是从加密里撤出来的那波流动性。

钱从来不会消失，只会轮动。

这批资金沉淀下来之后会再次寻找出口。

那么问题来了：当监管套利的窗口关闭、币圈走到终点,会不会冒出一个票圈？

回头看这件事的本质，加密货币为什么会出现？是因为有一批资金，要逃避上一代支付体系和货币体系的监管。

是这个人类历史的时间差，是这些不能见光的隐性需求，造就了币安这种巨头。

币安不是技术创新的产物，是监管空窗期的产物。

但时间差正在被抹平。

或许再过5年，币安完全接受主权招安，被CARF接入各个主权国家的税收体系，届时它跟一家持牌银行没有任何区别。匿名性、套利空间、灰色地带,全部清零。

那一天,加密作为监管套利工具的历史使命就结束了。

然后呢？下一个时代，会有一个新的彼岸出现。它可能不是币。可能是票，可能是某种我们现在还叫不出名字的东西。

币圈之后是票圈，票圈之后是别的圈，whatever。

载体一直在变，逻辑从来不变：有监管,就有逃避监管的需求；有逃避的需求，就有下一个套利工具；工具做大成巨头，巨头被主权收编，收编完成，游戏重开。

一切都是轮回。而每一轮的终局清算，不靠市场,也不靠技术。

只靠政治和战争。

结论：币安赢了，但币安的赢，是建立在所有参与者都是燃料的基础上。这一轮的赢是这一世的赢，不是永远的赢。这家大业大，赵长鹏何一靠什么来守？

龙头已定，创业已死，散户是水，监管在路上。

你以为你在这个行业里淘金，其实你只是在一个被巨头、主权、监管三方共同盯着的鱼缸里，做一条自以为自由的鱼。

而这个鱼缸本身，也不过是金融史长河里的一段。币圈会结束，就像它之前的无数个圈一样。

水随时可以被抽干。下一个鱼缸，正在某个地方被悄悄注满。

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

神秘東方大國後續會怎麽做呢？期待……

[Binance @binance]

Welcome to Stock Trading on Binance. For real.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

The most terrifying CPI data is coming.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

The DOJ just dropped the probe into Powell, clearing the final hurdle for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation. But don't expect a smooth handover. Powell is going into this week’s FOMC with a "nothing-to-lose" mindset.

Expect zero favors for the incoming administration. If Powell tilts ultra-hawkish on his way out, the "Last Dance" might just trip up the entire market.

Watch the 10Y Yields. The real battle isn't just in the Fed building; it's in the bond market's reaction to this power shift. 📉

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

Powell’s Last Dance: The Final Showdown at the Fed. ⚖️

This week marks Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Chair. With his tenure ending May 15, the stakes couldn't be higher. Is he leaving us with a soft landing or a macro nightmare?

1️⃣ 14:00 ET Wednesday: The Legacy Statement.Rates are expected to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The focus isn't on the pause—it's on whether Powell will cement "Higher for Longer" as his final act. With the Iran conflict pushing oil higher, any dovish hope is dead.
2️⃣ 14:30 ET Wednesday: The Final Presser.This is his swan song. Expect him to be blunt. If he admits the economy is flirting with "Stagflation" due to energy shocks, the market will reprice everything instantly. He has nothing to lose now.

3️⃣ BTC & The Exit Volatility.Historically, $BTC bleeds after FOMC. But this time, it’s also "Succession Uncertainty." With a deadlock over his successor, the transition of power could trigger a massive liquidity flush.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial.

There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us "the passionate minds shaping the future of finance."

600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President.

The distance is my best work.

I am the reason these events are unrelated.

World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence.

Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated.

Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated.

Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated.

Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated.

Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard.

On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well.

The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders.

Steven Witkoff is the President's Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President's fraud trial.

His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded.

The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency.

Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest "complete nonsense." Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name.

On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President's family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President's assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio.

Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job.

600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access.

A congressman called us the world's most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25.

My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper.

The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family.

I am the reason these events are unrelated.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

SPXS——Buy！

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

We followed the money. Last week, a handful of bankers and hedge funds met, decided to hold Washington's Iran war policy hostage, then launched a campaign. Name names?

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

48 hours have arrived, let's see what happens next.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

Tonight is a major pivot point. If the Dot Plot leans hawkish, expect a flush toward liquidity gaps below. Cash is also a position. Don't fight the Fed.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

Tonight, the market faces its moment of truth. Will Powell offer an olive branch or wield the hawkish axe? ⚖️
#BTC #FOMC #MacroStrategy #CryptoTrading #Powell

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

3️⃣ Historical Alpha: The "FOMC Curse" on $BTC.
Data doesn't lie. Following the last 4 FOMC meetings, BTC dropped every single time.
📉 Average dip: 10% - 30%
⏳ Duration: ~2 weeks of bleeding
Will history repeat itself? The trend suggests caution.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

2️⃣ 14:30 ET: Powell’s Presser – The Stagflation Ghost.
If Powell hints at "Stagflation" (stagnant growth + high inflation), risk assets will bleed. The macro outlook tonight feels heavily skewed to the downside.

[Soren @Crypto_Soren]

1️⃣ 14:00 ET: It’s not about the Rate, it’s about the Dot Plot.
Rate pause is priced in. The real "nuke" is the 3-year Dot Plot. With oil driving inflation back up, 19 FOMC members might signal "Higher for Longer," crushing any hope for early pivots.