Unbiased Ep. 2 is live with @jjcmoreno, @BenSizelove, & @TXMCtrades
BTC bottom signals, why treasury companies are mostly unprofitable businesses with great PR, and why Ethereum's stablecoin market cap crossover should worry ETH bulls.
Watch now ⤵️
https://t.co/KJzwDMKdZS
CeFi lending had its first contraction since Q3 2024, down 6% QoQ to $ 23.3B.
Tether still owns 68% of the market despite a 7% pullback. Nexo, Maple, and Coinbase were the only lenders that actually grew.
Galaxy (-21%) and Ledn (-19%) took the brunt of the deleverage.
Indicators show an interesting divergence.
📈 Futures: Heating
➡️ Spot: Neutral
Leverage volume is picking up, but spot demand hasn't confirmed the move.
100,000 BTC Leave the ETFs
“In terms of drawdown, this is the largest that ETFs have ever experienced. It’s estimated at over $11B in losses, a historic record.” – By @Darkfost_Coc
Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead.
Yes, capital efficiency is declining. In 2011, just $2.7B in net capital inflows drove a 55,436% price increase. This cycle, $697B produced a +689% return.
The next parabolic bull cycle likely requires deeper institutional allocation. Bitcoin needs to be a core macro asset, not just a retail-driven ETF trade.
That shift is still early, not invalidated.
If Bitcoin can absorb $1T+ in realized cap, another parabolic bull run remains on the table.
Gold's market cap is currently $27T.
Ethereum’s Wall of Worry: Negative Sentiment Meets Staking Absorption
“Historically, when speculative sentiment is this depressed while organic supply is being absorbed by staking, it creates a fragile environment for short-sellers.” – By @CryptoOnchain
We called for stronger cash reserves last week.
Today, Strategy responded with $1.25B in authorized BTC monetization, lifting reserve capacity to $3.8B and ~25.9 months of coverage.
Despite the authorization to sell bitcoin, the framework strengthens the balance sheet.
Strategy’s annualized dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2B, while its cash reserve has fallen 38% in 2026.
Dividend coverage collapsed from 7+ years to just 14 months.
The company needs to stop buying Bitcoin and rebuild cash.
Open Interest Cools: 45B to 20.4B
“OI decline signals that excess leverage is being worked off, but that alone doesn't confirm a bottom. With leverage and price falling at a similar pace, this looks more like an orderly unwind.” –By Rich_dady
Link ⤵️
https://t.co/HscvQ2Eph3
84% of Altcoins are trading below their 200-DMA
“Approximately 84% of altcoins listed on Binance are in a state of total underperformance, trading below the key technical threshold of the 200-day moving average.” – By @Darkfost_Coc
No Dry Powder, No Real Rally
“In this kind of environment, any bounce that does appear is more likely a short-term technical reaction than the beginning of a trend reversal.” – By Sunny Mom