$BTC long-term holders spent most of this year selling at a loss. that has now been slowly flipping back to profit.
typical of past cycles on the way out of the bear, yet well before anything that felt like a bull.
The current bid is strong enough that bitcoin:native can be spent in profit without price immediately rolling over.
A sustained entity-adjusted SOPR above 1 is characteristic of a bull market.
A break back below 1 would signal that this demand is fading.
Bitcoin 30DMA is about 2% below the 50WMA.
Since 2012, it has crossed above it six times.
If $BTC just holds here around $80k, the next crossing is about 6 days away...
bitcoin:native is climbing into a thickening liquidation shelf.
The dense cluster sits around $83k–$86k.
If reached, price could move quickly through this zone as shorts are forced to cover.
These shorts have been building for several weeks.
Altcoin leverage is still sitting below its risk threshold.
When the share of altcoin open interest comes within a few percent of Bitcoin's, the market is usually overheated.
That condition is not currently met, indicating a potential for alts to run further.
$BTC has reclaimed the True Market Mean.
That puts price back above a crucial level and back into a bullish regime.
Next major overhead is the corporate treasury cost basis around $80k and finally the ETF cost basis at $85k.
ICYMI: Listed companies added just 5.9K $BTC over three months, versus 89K in July 2025 alone.
With spot just below their $80.5K average cost basis, corporate buyers face modest unrealized losses while providing little fresh demand.
This week's analysis:
https://t.co/av9yaWA4nd
In our joint report with @Bybit_Official, we analyze how the crypto derivatives landscape has changed shape.
Read the full report👉 https://t.co/gVIVxbjfy9
The same level keeps capping bitcoin:native: the cost basis of large holders.
Corporate treasuries’ break-even sits around $80k.
A dovish FOMC could help set the stage to break through it.
$BTC has slipped below the bottom of the range.
That floor aligned with the True Market Mean and price needs to reclaim it for conditions to remain bullish.
If it does not, the short-term holder cost basis near $70k becomes increasingly likely.
Read more below 👇
Bitcoin has slipped below its multi-week range just as the Fed decides on rates.
Support under price is thin, but the potential catalyst here is strong.
Our latest Week On-Chain report covers what to watch for. https://t.co/av9yaWACcL
Bitcoin has slipped below its multi-week range just as the Fed decides on rates.
Support under price is thin, but the potential catalyst here is strong.
Our latest Week On-Chain report covers what to watch for. https://t.co/av9yaWACcL
The ETF bid is gone again.
It came back in late August, ran for just over three weeks, and has already flipped to net redemptions.
The ETFs bought during and after the rally, but are not currently buying the bitcoin:native dip.
Late August saw the broadest burst of altcoin gains this year.
At the same time, multiple holder cohorts used the bounce to take profit.
We monitor these metrics and more on our Market Compass.
Full report for this edition: https://t.co/FL9OSWUU7T
Bitcoin is sitting at $78k, down around 1% on the week, and holding its range.
Spot and perpetual selling and ETF outflows weigh, but capital inflows and elevated profitability show a market absorbing pressure, not breaking down.
https://t.co/fRbwgTzUW1
bitcoin:native is stuck beneath a wall of long-term holder supply around $83-$85k.
However, investors are acquiring coins here.
Should we break below this newly forming cluster, $75k is the level to watch.
After that a full retrace to $60k would be in play.
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.
Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.
A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs. https://t.co/9fBfJzz1av
"The market has left its value zone without becoming expensive. A majority of indicators crossing above 50 would be the cleanest confirmation that the cycle position has turned." $BTC
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have climbed back toward break-even after an $18B drawdown.
Institutional cost basis is now a resistance level that price has to move through for further upside
https://t.co/KkhOo3ZoOw
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.
Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.
A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs. https://t.co/9fBfJzz1av
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.
Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.
A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs. https://t.co/9fBfJzz1av
Two cities produce more than half of all Solana blocks.
Frankfurt 33%
Amsterdam 19%
310 of 675 validators sit in those two cities.
That is 46% of the network by validator count, 53% by stake.
https://t.co/FIpbnBBHQm