Rafael

Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Opinions my own | Co-founder @glassnode

[glassnode @glassnode]

$BTC is boxed in between $80K and $87K.

Below, buyers refilled the bids at the ETF and treasury cost basis. Above, the top buyers' break-even, the main asks and the largest liquidation clusters share one zone.

More on ETF flows, MSCI and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

#BTC hash rate has recovered and is back up about 10% from its late-august lows. it now sits just above 1000 EH/s.

great to see this stabilization after the downtrend.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

#BTC hash rate has recovered and is back up about 10% from its late-august lows. it now sits just above 1000 EH/s.

great to see this stabilization after the downtrend.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

The Great AI Migration

#BTC hash rate down nearly 20% since its October peak

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

Good data here showing which exchanges and entities have their public keys exposed which is relevant to Quantum and SI Classical Maths attack risks which is expected to climb in the coming years.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

still holding the line..

[glassnode @glassnode]

Bitcoin is moving into support.

After a rejection from the sell wall at $86.5K, bitcoin:native has slid toward multiple large buy orders. The largest sits around $81k.

These bids have been patiently waiting and will help to dampen downside.

[Alex Gladstein 🌋 ⚡ @gladstein]

Don’t reuse addresses 🙏

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

To be clear: this is just data. No view on whether or when the risks are coming. None of it should be read as a risk ranking, solvency signal, or a statement about the security of any exchange or custodian. Entity balances cover labeled addresses only.

/Fin

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

6.26M #BTC, or 31.2% of supply, sits behind a public key that is already visible on-chain.

At least that much would have to move in a migration to addresses whose keys are still hidden behind a hash.

The share is up from 24.8% in early 2021 and back at 2016 levels.

🧵 1/6

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

Since our May report the exposed supply has grown by 222K BTC, while total supply grew by 64K.

Exchanges account for 123K of the increase. 57% of exchange balances are now exposed, up from 55% in May and 39% at the start of 2021.

Method: https://t.co/RHIIGj582f

5/6

[glassnode @glassnode]

bitcoin:native's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.

If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to closes their positions.

Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.

Either side could speed up the next move.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

crypto showing real relative strength vs tradfi over the last 3 months.

equities and commodities mostly flat by comparison.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

funding says the same.

through the rally it barely moved: ~0.005% on average, same as july, only a single day above the 0.01% neutral rate

[glassnode @glassnode]

$BTC is rallying on less leverage.

Price is up 35% from the August low, while coin-denominated open interest is down almost 20%.

That puts open interest at its lowest since March, potentially making the rally less susceptible to leverage flushes.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

first fed hike since 2023, the 10-year above 5%, and $BTC is up 11% since the decision

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

@EugeneSmarts @glassnode that would be around -24%, following the covid crash

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

bullish confirmation signal on $BTC

today the 30DMA reclaimed the 50WMA for the first time since 2023

the previous crosses confirmed a bull

[glassnode @glassnode]

Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line.

Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.

More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇