Rafael

Ex-neuroscientist | Python Maximalist | Swing HODLer | Data Scientist | Co-founder @glassnode

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

"2% of accounts control 95% of all #Bitcoin "

Wrong.

BTC ownership is much less concentrated than often reported – and has dispersed over time.

Meanwhile, whale supply has increased – suggesting institutional investors arriving.

Report: https://t.co/mY1DExggsQ

THREAD 👇👇👇

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

@glassnode *not a prediction

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom?

$BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month.

Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework, moving into the cluster of valuation levels where past cycles have found their floor.

🧵

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

8/ This is a prediction, and I don't know where the bottom is.

Bottoms are not known in advance – they can only be framed in zones, probabilities, and levels that tell you when the setup is changing.

All data and charts: @glassnode

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom?

$BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month month.

Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework, moving into the cluster of valuation levels where past cycles have found their floor.

🧵

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

And no, this is not a stance on if/when practical quantum attacks against Bitcoin become possible, nor a statement on the security or solvency of any custodian. It's purely a data lens: quantifying where public-key exposure exists today.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

4.12M #BTC (20.6% of issued supply) is quantum-exposed through operational behaviour, not script design.

That makes this less of a distant protocol question, and more of a present-day challenge around wallet hygiene and address management. A large share sits with active entities like exchanges and custodians, where improved reserve practices can meaningfully reduce at-rest exposure.

Read our full analysis 👇

[glassnode @glassnode]

https://t.co/hazgmSisxc

[AntiFragile @anti_fragile]

Spot volume across the top 500 coins has fallen to levels not seen since 2023. The holiday slowdown is in full effect

📊https://t.co/6Z0gRPRAGK

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

#Bitcoin treasury holdings of public companies increased even throughout #BTC's recent drawdown from $125k. Not seeing much of the alleged forced selling here despite some equities trading below mNAV.

https://t.co/rr6TSabAeQ

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

7/ As always, all charts and data available on https://t.co/zXALwwIvCB.

Fin.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

A few datapoints on the recent market move –

1/ While #Bitcoin corrected comparatively mildly, unsurprisingly, alts saw one of the sharpest daily drawdowns in years: the median return across alts was as low as –20%.

[Rafael @n3ocortex]

6/ Our #BTC Long/Short Bias chart, tracking the aggregate net positions of the largest BTC traders on Hyperliquid, showed a steep rise in net shorts starting in Oct 6th, well before Friday's events. While levels have since recovered, they remain deeply negative. Stay cautious.