_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️

Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility
Newsletter Analyst @_checkonchain
Charting Suite

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Personal Update:

I am very proud to announce I'm launching the @_checkonchain Newsletter on Substack!

After 6 years studying and educating folks on the power of #Bitcoin onchain data, it's time to put my skills to the test.

Our first edition is live!
https://t.co/BLwsN9jC4s
🧵

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

Bitcoin's dip to $80k appears to have been bought, with the market continuing to hold up remarkably well.

Bitcoin has pulled back less than 9% from its recent high, with futures leverage continuing to decline and onchain sell-side pressure remaining relatively small.

In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the current market structure, investor behaviour, and the signals suggesting Bitcoin may be preparing for its next major move.

Get it here: https://t.co/A3mjzPhr6o

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

All while the average Bitcoiner is bored, checked out, and angry.

You've made it this far... now comes the fun part.

HODL.

[Walker⚡️ @WalkerAmerica]

LIVE WITH @_Checkmatey_ AND @SullyMichaelvan ON @titcoinpodcast TALKING ABOUT BITCOIN BEARS IN DISBELIEF

[bitview @_bitview_]

This continuously rising line is the reason Bitcoin follows the same trend.

This is the HODLer line, derived from the thinking behind Cointime Economics (hello @_Checkmatey_ and @dpuellARK )

This metric is based on the calculation of cumulative coinblocks created minus cumulative coinblocks destroyed.
A coinblock is one Bitcoin held for one block.

Coinblocks Stored therefore shows that Bitcoin's holding time is accumulating faster than the time consumed by spending.

It now stands above 5.15T coinblocks, and the trend isn't changing.

HODL 🙌💎

Chart Link : https://t.co/09UNiKHXut

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

Bitcoin pulled back towards $80k over the weekend, but the correction remains remarkably shallow, particularly given the challenging macro backdrop and the strength of the rally since August.

Pullbacks since the August rally have remained below 9%, while onchain sell-side pressure continues to be relatively small.

In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines Bitcoin's current correction, and how price action and investor behaviour compare with previous early bull market recoveries.

Get it here -> https://t.co/jcPTUc8u8c

[Vince (HodlFlorida) @HodlFlorida]

If you haven’t seen it yet…

@_Checkmatey_ and I talked about a potential dip to $80k on my latest podcast! 👀

You should check it out! 🔥

Full episode:
https://t.co/2KnqJO43I3

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

Two of the largest Bitcoin treasury companies are taking very different approaches to the current market.

Strategy (MSTR) has focused on strengthening its balance sheet, while Strive (ASST) has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin, increasing its holdings by +78% over the last 90 days.

In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines these divergent strategies, and why mNAV expansion and contraction will be critical to their future stock performance.

Read it here -> https://t.co/r7KJ0AG5FD

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

I get it, there are nuances for tech-bros who are deep in the weeds. Everyone has an anecdote about why I’m wrong.

Take a step back and be a commodity-bro who’s seen enough supply/demand cycles. Tokens are a commodity. Currently, the token factories are out-stripping token demand. Pricing is the adjustment factor. Except token factories are mostly fixed-price businesses. They have take-or-pay. They have commitments. They will produce tokens at a loss rather than turn off.

I’m not saying that token demand is slowing. It’s still growing at astronomical rates. I’m saying that token production is now out-pacing demand. The cycle will turn when demand accelerates or token production slows. There’s like half a trillion $ of GPUs waiting to be installed. I don’t think token production slows anytime soon.

Yeah, I get it. Jevon’s and all. It’s great for AI consumers and innovators. But the guys owning token factories are gonna all go bust in the process, and that’s like $2T of capex to date. You cannot even restructure these things and crush the debt. They’re just stranded by new, and more efficient chips. They’re always going to be stranded by new chips. More efficient Models will strand the more expensive ones. It’s a race to the bottom against fixed costs. It’s the most godawful business misallocation I’ve seen in a while. Makes the Chinese look like prudent capital allocators🤣🤣

It’s like having iron rails when the new railroads run on steel. This bankruptcy cycle will be epic…

[nym21 @_nym21_]

brilliant pod, anyone interested in the specifics of on-chain data should give it a listen

[Tom | On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Not every on-chain metric survived this Bitcoin cycle.

Some nailed the major turning points. Others gave signals that never materialised.

I sat down with @_Checkmatey_ to review the evidence, challenge the old favourites and identify what matters for the next move 👇🏼

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

@zgfkfjr @Dale21M Don't ever buy Bitcoin hardware from a reseller, only from the source company.

Industry has a long way to go making the UX of this stuff acceptable.

[ClipShoe @clipshoe]

@OnChainMind & @_Checkmatey_ absolutely spitting fire in this interview.

So many great insights.

🙏

What On-Chain Got Right and Wrong This Bitcoin Cycle | James Check https://t.co/awJzZGJJK7 via @YouTube

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

It's not very often I get to go really into the weeds on the nuances of onchain data, but this conversation with Tom from @OnChainMind was just that.

Really fun conversation for those who want to go deeper into how we think about onchain tools and metrics for practical analysis.

[Tom | On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Which on-chain metrics actually worked this cycle?

I sat down with @_Checkmatey_ to score them against the data.

SOPR, MVRV, exchange balances, the power law and mining metrics: which held up, which quietly broke, and the levels that would confirm the next leg up 👇🏼

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Always great fun to chat with @HodlFlorida, thanks for having me on the pod mate!

[Vince (HodlFlorida) @HodlFlorida]

How bullish are you on Bitcoin??

Well I had @_Checkmatey_ , the best on-chain analyst, on my show, @thebtcbroadcast to discuss:

- The bear market analytics
- Where we are now in this cycle
- When we could see $100K bitcoin
- Macro outlook
- Bitcoin's diminishing returns
- The next ATH outlook

You're not going to want to miss this one!!

Also available on Spotify, Apple and Rumble! Links below!

The Bull Market is Back | Checkmate https://t.co/4ibTjG5yem via @YouTube

[Vince (HodlFlorida) @HodlFlorida]

How bullish are you on Bitcoin??

Well I had @_Checkmatey_ , the best on-chain analyst, on my show, @thebtcbroadcast to discuss:

- The bear market analytics
- Where we are now in this cycle
- When we could see $100K bitcoin
- Macro outlook
- Bitcoin's diminishing returns
- The next ATH outlook

You're not going to want to miss this one!!

Also available on Spotify, Apple and Rumble! Links below!

The Bull Market is Back | Checkmate https://t.co/4ibTjG5yem via @YouTube

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

Bitcoin is trading around $83k, yet investors are still showing plenty of fear.

Despite $13.6B in monthly onchain capital inflows, futures leverage has declined by 18% since the August breakout, and ETF investors have started selling into the latest dip.

In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines this disconnect between investor behaviour and the underlying market structure.

Get the market update here -> https://t.co/AszaipuRsb

[bitview @_bitview_]

Bitview Studio, in one minute.

Every chart in this video was made with it: search any on-chain series, write formulas, color anything by anything, stack, draw, measure, and share any chart as a link.

Right in your browser, no account.

https://t.co/AT4COrUO8i

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

@dotkrueger Two things:

1) The view you quoted by me is quite incorrect, I was last on blockspace pod like 6 months ago.

2) I'd rather not be quoted in this feed, it's just clogging up my notifications every day.

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

One of the hardest parts of a Bitcoin bull market isn't surviving the dips. It's watching price rally without you.

FOMO often leads investors to buy too much at local highs, only to panic sell when the next correction arrives.

Now that we're seeing a pullback towards $80k, the question is whether this is another reason to be fearful, or an opportunity to think differently.

In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ explores the psychology of FOMO, lessons from his own experience since 2019, and how onchain data can help investors navigate the current market.

Get it here -> https://t.co/Kt0PpbZCbG