@TheCryptoLark The game has changed! 6.2 Trillion of treasuries need to be refinanced by the end of April, 2026! That's when the real focus is required! π
The Fed ended QT in October 2019.
Alts dropped 42% after that.
They only started pumping once the Fed started QE in March 2020.
What's interesting is that the S&P 500 rallied during this time period.
This shows that ending QT isn't enough for alts to rally.
They need some liquidity, and it could happen in just 2 ways.
Either the Fed needs to start QE or the Treasury needs to release TGA liquidity into the economy.
The first scenario is highly unlikely to happen soon, and the 2nd one will only happen once the US government shutdown ends.
I think we could see more underperformance in the crypto market for some time.
@rovercrc Only because the US government refinanced bonds at longer time frames in 2021 & 2022. June 2026 BTC top and July/August for peak altcoin season!
If we're now looking at a 5 year cycle based on the US rolling over debt at lower interest rates in 21-22, assuming we didn't get the 2nd peak due to massive liquidity because of COVID money printing in 2020, June 2026 will be our new BTC top. Market top in July 2026. #Bitcoin
@TheCryptoLark The way it's lined up, rates cuts equals 4-8 weeks later before bonds holders react and 10-15 weeks before BTC price reacts and then another 3-5 weeks for an epic altcoin season to play out. Q2 of 2026 seems very logical at this point!
US PCE data just came in at 2.7% (as expected)
Core PCE inflation came in at 2.9% (as expected)
No surprises in PCE.
The Fed can continue to cut rates.