AI will stay and grow exponentially.
But most AI companies will go bust. There are just too many.
Even survivors will see huge price fluctuations.
There will be new survivor entrants too.
Same as any other new industry, really.
Dave: "Hello caller, you're on the air."
Caller: "I put half my savings into Bitcoin in 2020."
Dave: "Oh no. How much did you lose?"
Caller: "It's up 600%."
Dave: "Well you got lucky. It's not a real asset."
Caller: "What makes something a real asset?"
Dave: "It has to hold value over time."
Caller: "Bitcoin is up 1,000,000% since 2010."
Dave: "That's speculation."
Caller: "I paid off my house with it."
Dave: "..."
Caller: "I thought you liked paying off houses, Dave."
🔥CHARLES HOSKINSON: "I've lost over $3 BILLION now."
"I've lost more money than anyone listening to this. Over $3 billion now."
"It'd have been real easy to cash out. Just walk away."
"Do you think I care if I lose it all? Do you think I'm doing this for money?"
"You're pretty mistaken if you do."
Overlaying two chart periods and drawing arrows doesn't prove cycles repeat. I've analyzed actual altcoin market structure - 2021 had unprecedented stimulus, zero rates, retail FOMO, and DeFi/NFT narratives driving capital rotation. What's the 2026 catalyst? PMI above 50 isn't "the quiet signal" - it's one macro data point that doesn't specifically drive altcoin allocation. Real institutional crypto allocation is happening in BTC and ETH... not speculative alts. The "same setup" ignores completely different liquidity conditions, regulatory environment, and market maturity. Pattern matching timeframes from halving events is astrology. Alts pumped in 2021 because retail had cash and new narratives. Where's that now? Predicting "+8,840%" based on colored boxes is hopium, not analysis.
Before pump fun was invented, myself and my co-founders tried building a ton of different ideas. Consumer, DeFi, SocialFi, NFTs - none of it worked.
One of the biggest problems we had (other than the fact that our solutions didn’t really solve anyone’s problems) is that we found it really difficult to get the products in front of users. Trying to get in touch with the right kinds of users was massively laborious.
Distribution was such a huge challenge for us that one of my only New Year’s resolutions EVER was to get 10k followers on X in 2024.
Only a few months after pump fun was launched, it clicked. Projects began launching tokens because they knew that 1) users loved buying into fresh ideas they thought had a chance of becoming successful and 2) there were millions of those kinds of people, which could become potential users and investors. Instant liquidity meant that you can get funded too.
This eventually snowballed into onchain AI season, which showed builders and traders alike how big this opportunity - tokenizing early stage projects - could become. The numerous onchain metas we’ve seen since shows that the demand for good founders by traders and long-term allocators continues to be incredibly high, no matter the market conditions.
Pump fun’s 3rd year will be all about optimizing our existing ecosystem while trying to expand it with big bets, such as betting on the startup ecosystem via initiatives like Pump Fund and the Build in Public Hackathon.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson slams Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse for his support for the current draft bill of the crypto market structure legislation (CLARITY Act).
I am not against meme coins, and I like memes.
But if you are going to ape into every meme coin people create based on my random tweets, you are almost guaranteed to lose money.
I just tweet as I do, with stupid not-so-funny jokes, not thinking about memes (most of the time).
BREAKING:
CZ JUST KILLED THE 4-YEAR CYCLE.
WE’RE ALREADY IN A SUPERCYCLE
AND MOST PEOPLE DON’T EVEN SEE IT.
For 15 years the halving dictated everything:
Supply shock, retail FOMO, parabolic top, brutal crash.
This time the rules changed.
- Bitcoin hit ATH before the halving
- Institutions loaded up first
- ETFs now hold over $120B
- BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan are all-in
- Sovereign nations are preparing reserves
- Global regulation is maturing fast
The rally wasn’t triggered by the halving.
It was triggered by structural demand.
Liquidity. Capital flows. Institutional adoption.
Bitcoin isn’t retail speculation anymore.
It’s a global macro asset plugged directly into the financial system.
The old cycle didn’t die.
It evolved.
What comes next is bigger than anything we’ve seen:
- Deep TradFi integration
- Bitcoin as collateral in banking
- Sovereign balance sheets adding BTC
- Retail entering after institutions, not leading the charge
This isn’t a bubble forming.
This is infrastructure being built.
The supercycle isn’t coming.
You’re already in it.
Recognize it.
Position accordingly.