CtrAltDecrypt

Nordic Viking 🧑‍💻🏴‍☠️⛓️📈📉💾🕹️🧑‍🌾🌱🍄👨‍🦼
Feed = timestamp of my personal trading thesis

[CtrAltDecrypt @Ctraltdecrypt]

I have a really good trade setup. It's quite a high risk, but the trade becomes more and more likely with each passing day.

PS: this is just for making money, and has nothing to do with personal politics

It's forming a Head & Shoulders pattern, likely ending within days/weeks

[Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen]

Failed society.

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Rumours growing that Trump will announce a #Bitcoin Strategic Reserve policy for the United States next week.

[Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen]

I've been thinking about this market a lot.

The S&P 500 is up +18.4% YTD and the Nasdaq-100 is up +20.9%.

Since the Oct.'23 lows, $SPX +37.5% and $NDX +44.5%.

The market has been on fire, but we've also seen a lot of underperformance in small-caps and the market is aggressively broadening out again (as it did in Q4'23).

Volatility is low (that's bullish).
Credit spreads are low (that's bullish).
Disinflation is persistent (that's bullish).
Macroeconomic data is resilient (that's bullish).
The uptrend in asset prices is intact (that's bullish).

I have no fundamental justification to change my all-out bullish outlook that I've embraced since April 2023.

At the same time, I think that this expansion we've seen over the past week is providing investors with a portfolio reconstruction opportunity.

Why?

Because we're going to have a pullback (which is simply an opportunity to produce another higher low), but the question is "when" and "how deep will the decline go?"

Base-case, we should expect a decline of -3% to -8% at the index level.

Maybe it's worse than that or maybe it's not as bad.

No one knows.

My personal view is that investors should still be overweight mega-caps, growth, and tech... in other words, the MVP's of the market that I've been talking about for the entire rally.

Therefore, if you own small caps or underperforming stocks that are suddenly playing catch-up and making significant gains in the recent week/month, this rally is an opportunity to trim those positions, raise cash, and reorganize portfolio construction.

I'll reiterate, I still think that the MVP's of the market are going to outperform and I think that's the best case scenario for the market and for investors who simply own the indices.

Let the big dogs do the heavy lifting.

This is what I'm going to do with my portfolio, starting over the next few weeks: reduce ancillary positions and focus on buying more tech/growth/mega-caps.

I will also gradually sell more of my low duration Treasury ETFs over the next 6 months, notably the BlackRock Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF $ICSH, which has an effective duration of 0.43 years.

It's currently yielding 5.4%, which has been fantastic, but I expect to see this yield start to fall over the next 6 months as the market prices in rate cuts and a normalization of the federal funds rate.

I already sold my 2Y Treasury ETF and other Treasury ETFs earlier this year and reallocated that capital into equities, which was my plan at the start of the year: to gradually reduce Treasury exposure in favor of equities.

So the game plan is simple: look to reduce exposure to ancillary positions during this market expansion, raise more capital, and push more chips towards tech, mega-caps, and growth (hopefully on a moderate market-wide dip that could occur at some point in Q3 and some slightly weaker seasonal trends coming up pre-election).

Happy to answer any questions.

Cheers fam.

[Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw]

Bank of America just shut down our personal bank account because crypto. 🫡

[Ivan on Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania @IvanOnTech]

#Bitcoin “bad for environment” narrative was always a scam

Prevented many wokies from getting into crypto and making life changing gains

[RYAN SΞAN ADAMS - rsa.eth 🦄 @RyanSAdams]

This is why we must encrypt everything!

And fight any government who tries to take away your right to encrypt.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Republican National Committee approves draft of party platform to defend the right to mine and self-custody #Bitcoin

[nicolas, 30 ans @nic_carter]

Official Republican party platform on crypto. Couldn't really ask for anything more:

✅ End crypto crackdown
✅ No CBDC
✅ Right to mine
✅ Right to self-custody
✅ Right to transact freely

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Yet food service corps are among the worst performers. 🤔

Your suggestion would have seen greater margins and profitability, even outperforming the market, not under.

[Daniel Carcillo @CarBombBoom13]

After 6 months and just 2 high dose mushroom ceremonies, I received clear brain scans with 0 abnormalities and clear blood work

I had reversed all concussion related symptoms and my neurodegenerative disease diagnosis given to me by medical professionals

This was the first interview I gave after receiving such news

On this 4th of July, I am most grateful for my health, given back to me by my courageousness to seek out mushroom assisted therapy

If you are someone who continues to suffer from traumatic brain injury symptoms and a day like today, with numerous points of over stimulation if untenable, please get in touch with me

To learn more information about the healing power of mushrooms, our upcoming LEGAL mushroom retreats in Oregon & to join the weekly webinars & email list, please email me at [email protected]

Onward

[Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen]

If you blinked and #Bitcoin was back at $70k, what would you do?

[Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen]

#Bitcoin is now trading below its:
• 21-day EMA
• 55-day EMA
• 100-day EMA
• 200-day EMA
• Short-term holder realized price
• AVWAP from the YTD open

None of these are signs of bullish dynamics.

That doesn't mean that the bull market is over, but it DOES mean that a significant amount of constructive improvements need to take place to reaffirm the bull trend.

It's important to recognize what environment we are in from a short, medium, and long-term basis and to adjust our risk tolerance, position sizing, etc.

I've been of the opinion that $BTC will make new highs this cycle... the market is objectively telling me that there is a lower probability of that happening.

As always, I'll listen to the market, adjust, and be flexible based on price structure, indicators, etc.

I'm wearing multiple hats, both as a trader and as an investor.

As a trader, I've been out of the crypto market and I'm still out today.

On the other side, I've been stacking BTC aggressively as a long-term investor for the past 2 years and certainly haven't stopped buying over the past 6 months. By the nature of the price structure, many of those recent purchases are now underwater, but I'm not feeling any degree of concern or fear.

As far as I'm concerned, I can stack longer than you can stay fearful.

But I'm also vigilant in terms of developing a plan and following it to a "T".

My plan has been the following:
1. Buy the retest of the short-term holder realized price
2. Get defensive if price fell below STHRP
3. Buy the retest of the 200-day moving average cloud
4. Get bearish if price fell below the 200-day MA cloud

All four of these have occurred, so I've transitioned from being bullish to being defensive to being bearish, until we can reclaim back above the 200-day moving average cloud.

Now that we've fallen below it, I'm perfectly fine with getting "chopped up" if we get back above it and immediately fall back below it.

That's just me though – I'm willing to get chopped up in the short-term with a rules-based methodology in order to stay in the right long-term trend and ensure that I'm able to ride the wave or avoid significant punishment.

The 200-day moving average cloud gives me that ability.

For all we know, we can look back on this in 6 months and say "Wow, people were scared in July? Should've been bidding."

Or perhaps we're saying "man, the signs were so obvious, why didn't I take more risk off the table?"

I don't know. You don't know. They don't know.

No one knows.

That's what makes this so fascinating.

Enjoy the ride.

And happy 4th of July to my fellow Americans 🇺🇸🧡

[Sistine Research @sistineresearch]

BTC

[Wick @ZeroHedge_]

You can tell the markets are down, bc you see children of X start getting ugly towards one another 🤦🏼‍♂️

For whoever needs to hear this, we’re only at about a -20% drawdown from the highs

Something that has never not happened in a bull market. More than a few times per cycle

[Sistine Research @sistineresearch]

Massively under valued.

[Sistine Research @sistineresearch]

BTC update w/ levels to pay attention to:

[Volastra @0xVolastra]

Sony is launching a crypto exchange, but they'll also launch an Ethereum Layer 2.

"Can you imagine what happens if Sony, [a] six times bigger company than Coinbase, launches their platform with Web3 Ways?" said Jun Watanabe, President of Sony Network Communications, in 2023.

They're going to apply Coinbase's playbook with their Exchange AND their Ethereum Layer 2.

Obviously they won't be the last to do that, many other big institutions will launch their Ethereum Layer 2s.

Ethereum is the new financial system.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

BlackRock wins again...

[Red Devil @clp923]

#Uranium $SMR could likely run into some resistance in the 13.50 -14 area. Buying when the newsletter experts were selling was quite the play. Once again, TA for the win.