good graphs as always from @Currence_AI's H1 climate tech investment report: VC investment surged 55% YoY (largely thanks to low-carbon data center deals) even as total deal count fell 25%. meanwhile, the sector continues to consolidate, with energy acquisitions on the rise
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New interview series from CTVC unlocked. @schrep sat down with @KimberlyZou and @SophiePurdom to talk about making the shift from the digital economy to the physical economy
Base case mid-teens GW comes online with ~50% of pipeline being delayed or cancelled year-to-year for data centers.
So that JPM delay quote ("The latest analysis based on satellite images shows that over 60% of data center capacity planned for completion in 2027 has not begun construction with another 7% delayed" ) is from the Eye on the Market series by Cembalest who is great. They cite "SynMax Vulcan Platform / IRR Energy, April 9, 2026" - anyone familiar or have access? Looks like mid-teens still expected to come online (which corroborated my base case on bottom-up math which I've shared many times - will link).
Closest comp is @climatetech_vc data that showed only ~5GW of 16GW expected to come online was under construction. Dated 2/24/26.
Looks like GS has ~20GW (44GW->64GW) by end of '26 and also cite: "Only about 50-60% of data center capacity scheduled for the next one to two years is expected to come online on time amid delays and cancellations".
There is no perfect solution! Solar + BESS requires firming. EGS at existing sites is small in scale. Nuclear is slow. Gas + CCS has a long value chain.
The best course, as always, is to pursue a diversified procurement strategy.
The full project database behind this analysis covers 700+ generation projects with identified speed advantages, mapped against data centers in development.
We just released a new report: The Fastest MW for data centers.
We mapped every realistic pathway to grid-connected clean power that could yield a speed advantage for US data centers.
You can download the public version of the report here: https://t.co/42MVOiRSG5
The fastest pathway to new clean MWs is offtake from solar + BESS projects late in the interconnection queue in ERCOT.
We have a list of 545 of them.
Options also exist for geothermal, nuclear uprates, off-grid solar, and gas + CCS.
Over 22GW of clean power from these categories could start development this year and deliver in 2-3 years.
A further 7GW could deliver in 3-6 years.