This scene really explains why Palpatine was so sure Luke would turn after he defeated Vader until he threw his lightsaber away. If he can get Jedi as wise Dooku & as powerful as Anakin to start the path down the Dark Side after killing in cold blood as the result of a duel, why shouldn't it have worked a third time
Bills vs Broncos Full Preview (4:30PM) 🐴🦬🏈
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills head to Mile High Stadium to face Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in a highly anticipated divisional round playoff matchup. The Denver Broncos are a 1.5-point favorite in this game, with the total set at 46. Buffalo is coming off a last-second win vs. Jacksonville, while the Broncos are coming off a bye week. Sean Payton is going to have his team prepared for this game. Payton's game plan should revolve around running the football and controlling time of possession. When you compare both of these teams' rosters, Denver has the better team on paper. But the Bills have Josh Allen, who is one of the best postseason quarterbacks of our generation. Look for Josh Allen to have another dominant postseason performance in this game. Now let's dive into some matchups in this game. Can the Broncos' rushing attack find success vs. the weak Bills rush defense? Who is going to win the trench battle between the Bills' offensive line and the Broncos' defensive line? Can Vance Joesph's defense slow down Josh Allen? I'm excited to break down this game, so let's get into the Xs and Os of this matchup.
Will the Bills' Rush Defense Struggle in This Matchup?
My answer to that question is yes, but I expect the Bills' rush defense to improve in this game; let me explain.
The Bills are set to get back their star defensive tackle Ed Oliver in this game. Oliver is the Bills' best run stuffer. The Bills' stuff rate jumps 10.09% with Ed Oliver on the field. Look for Oliver to be impactful in this game.
Now let's look at the Broncos' rushing offense.
Since Week 11, the Broncos' rushing offense ranks 7th in success rate and 20th in EPA. Meanwhile, since Week 11, the Bills' rush defense ranks 26th in success rate and 32nd in EPA. The Broncos should be able to run the football in this game. But expect the Bills' rush defense to not allow many ground explosives in this game.
McLaughlin owns a 0.04 EPA/Rush this season. (highest on the team)
If you’re considering a Broncos rushing prop for this game, McLaughlin is the better choice over Harvey.
Now let's dive into the Broncos' passing game.
Bo Nix is going to struggle a bit vs. an underrated Bills coverage unit.
Since Week 11, the Bills' passing defense ranks 5th in success rate and 4th in EPA allowed. Additionally, this season, the Bills' passing defense is allowing just 170.2 passing yards per game. Now the Broncos passing offense has been good. Since Week 11, the Broncos' passing offense ranks 8th in success rate and 8th in EPA. The Bills' defensive back room matches up really well vs. the Broncos' wide receivers and tight ends.
Now let's dive into the Bills' coverage tendencies.
The Bills defense, from a coverage perspective, since Week 11, has primarily relied on 2 high shell coverages.
Cover 2 Rate - 15.1%
Cover 4 Rate - 19.6%
Cover 6 Rate - 12.8%
Bo Nix vs. 2 High This Season:
58.3% completion rate
5.8 yards per attempt
76.4 passer rating
42.6% positive play rate
Bo Nix owns the lowest yards per attempt in the NFL vs. 2 high this season.
Broncos Receivers vs. 2 High This Season:
Pat Bryant
0.22TPRR|1.7YPRR
Evan Engram
0.25TPRR|1.5YPRR
Courtland Sutton
0.19TPRR|1.3YPRR
Troy Franklin
0.17TPRR|0.9YPRR
RJ Harvey
0.24TPRR|1.6YPRR
Marvin Mims
0.13TPRR|0.2YPRR
Adam Trautman
0.16TPRR|1.4YPRR
Jaleel McLaughlin
0.09TPRR | 0.8YPRR
Pat Bryant can have some success vs. Taron Johnson in this game. Johnson has really struggled in coverage this season. Bryant sees an uptick in targets vs. 2 high, and Sean Payton will get him designed work.
The Broncos offense is going to have to rely on methodical drives in this game, as Bo Nix really struggles to push the ball down the field vs. 2 high. Additionally, the Broncos should average around 4.5 YPC on the ground in this game. If the Broncos offense stays in manageable downs, the Bills are not going to win this football game.
Flip to the other side of the football. The Bills offense should rely on their rushing attack.
Buffalo's rushing offense this season has been among the best in the NFL. Since Week 11, the Bills' rushing offense ranks 3rd in success rate and 4th in EPA. Meanwhile, the Broncos' rush defense since Week 11 ranks 14th in success rate and 27th in EPA allowed. James Cook is set to have a big performance in this game. A rush concept that the Bills can have success with in this game is Duo.
The Broncos defense vs. Duo this season:
27th EPA/rush (+0.055)
20th success rate (32.3%)
28th in yards/rush (4.8)
30th in explosive run rate (12.9%)
(Credit to Pro__Ant on X for this statistic.)
28.1% of the Bills' rushes this season have come from man/gap concepts. Look for Joe Brady to attack the smaller Broncos defensive linemen.
Additionally, the Bills' offensive line has a massive weight advantage compared to the Broncos' defensive line.
Bills OLine Weight Average: 320.8 lbs
Broncos' DLine Weight Average: 275lbs
The Bills offensive line holds a significant trench advantage. I expect the Bills offense to be able to run the football efficiently.
Now let's dive into the Bills' passing attack. The Bills offense is going to be reliant on 12 personnel, given their wide receiver injuries. Josh Allen is going to need to have a big game in order for the Bills' passing attack to succeed. This Broncos passing defense is legit. Since Week 11, the Broncos passing defense ranks 2nd in success rate and 10th in EPA. Patrick Surtain is still the best cornerback in the NFL. Look for Surtain to shadow either Keon Coleman or Brandon Cooks in this game. The key for the Bills' passing attack revolves around Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. One of those 2 receivers has to step up in this game if the Bills want to win this game. Additionally, look for Vance Joseph to blitz Josh Allen heavily in this game. Since Week 11, the Broncos own a 31.1% blitz rate. Luckily Allen has been pretty good vs. the blitz this season.
Now let's look at the Broncos' coverage tendencies.
The Broncos defense, from a coverage perspective, has primarily relied on man coverage this season.
The Broncos used man coverage on 38% of their defensive snaps this season.
Bills Receivers vs. Man Coverage This Season
Ty Johnson
0.4YPRR | 0.06TPRR
Brandon Cooks
0YPRR|0.17TPRR
Keon Coleman
1.5YPRR | 0.26TPRR 💀
Khalil Shakir
1.6YPRR|0.2TPRR
Dawson Knox
0.7YPRR|0.12TPRR
James Cook
2.4YPRR | 0.13TPRR
Dalton Kincaid
2.5YPRR | 0.27TPRR
Curtis Samuel
0.9YPRR | 0.18TPRR
Khalil Shakir saw 14 targets last week. Why does that matter in this matchup? The Broncos are targeted at a top 5 rate in the slot. Look for Shakir to lead the Bills in targets this game.
Additionally, a guy like Ty Johnson should get some designed catches in this game. Johnson serves as the Bills' primary receiving back on third downs. Johnson has run 10+ routes in every game since Week 6 and owns a -1.2 ADOT. If Johnson sees 10+ routes in this game, his receptions prop could be intriguing. (But I'd pass given his injury).
Kincaid would be intriguing, but he's been dealing with a foot injury. Kincaid was seen in a walking boot after the Jaguars game.
The Broncos' pass rush has to be able to contain Josh Allen in the pocket. If they don't, the Bills are going to win this football game pretty easily.
Additionally, the Bills offense is going to have to rely on methodical drives in this game. I don't see an avenue where the Bills offense is able to pass explosives in this matchup.
Trends 📈
Bo Nix in his career is 1-8 vs. winning teams that score more than 17 points.
When defenses allow under 20 PPG, Allen is 30-10 SU in his career.
Prediction:
I love what Sean Payton has done for the Denver Broncos franchise over the last 3 years. But the Denver Broncos season comes to an end today. When you look at this game, Denver is the better team on paper. But the Bills have a huge quarterback advantage. If this game remains close heading into the fourth quarter, the question is, who do you trust more—Bo Nix or Josh Allen? There's an easy answer: it's Josh Allen. Josh Allen is the most talented quarterback we've seen in NFL history. I'm not fading Josh Allen in this spot. If the Bills lose this game, I can go to bed knowing I backed Josh Allen in this spot. Additionally, Josh Allen is not the only reason why I like the Bills in this game. I expect Buffalo to be able to run the football in this game, and I expect the Bills' defense to limit the Broncos' passing attack. This game is the hardest to predict for the divisional round, but give me the Bills to move onto the AFC Championship game.
I also do expect the Broncos to be up at halftime. Typically the Bills are a 2H team. Allen’s career record against the spread in the second half is 87-50-3. (Which is the best since 2005).
My power ratings have this game at Bills -1.2. So anything Bills +1.5 or better, I'm cool with. I wouldn't be shocked if the Broncos won this game, but I'm not fading Josh Allen personally.
Score Prediction
Bills 24
Broncos: 20
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If bron was 26 and Luka was 41, the lakers would be real contenders and would be considered a super team because Lebron would’ve covered all the holes. Remember that when you talk about superstar impact
Mal goes off on the Kendrick Lamar halftime show . He says the only person who had a worse performance than him was Patrick Mahomes . Kdot ain’t got no undeniable hit records like usher does . He was only their because of Drake 😡👀👀
J Cole said it best “if he wasn’t dissing then we wouldn’t be discussing him”
Kendrick Lamars entire set was about Drake. The songs were boring and unknown, choreography is lazy.
Lil Wayne deserves an apology and yall need to be honest about Kendrick’s manufactured winnings