Darin D. Fessler ✝️

Fut/Opt Trader | SVP - Market Strategist | Founder of the Alpha Trade | Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for every investor

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Oct 23rd Trading Notes: 📝

🌽 #Corn slides to MAX SHORT from LARGE SHORT on a +161K net (-12K on the day, the biggest cut on the board, -70K since the Oct 13 COT), 66% of range, bearish bias with 458'2 under P462 and sitting on S1, S 458/455, R 465/470

🌱 #Soybeans flip to NEUTRAL from MODERATE SHORT on a +207K net (+10K, the biggest gain on the board, -30K since COT), 87% of range, bearish bias but 1254'0 sits over P1252, S 1244/1234, R 1262/1270

🌱 #Soymeal holds SMALL SHORT on a +175K net (-3K, -31K since COT), 91% of range, while #soyoil eases to MODERATE SHORT from LARGE SHORT on a +76K net (+8K), 67% of range; #oilshare holds 48.9% and stays above both the 9 and 20 day EMAs, as board #crush slips to $2.45 from $2.46, stays under both EMAs and the 9 day EMA crosses under the 20 day

🌾 #Wheat holds MAX SHORT on a -67K net (-4K, -34K since COT), 39% of range, bearish bias with 624'6 under P626, S 620/616, R 630/635

🌽 Crowding: #meal 91%, #beans 87%, #cotton 79%, #soyoil 67%, #corn 66%, #KCWheat 53% holding MAX SHORT on a +1K net (-3K) of historical range

🐂 Divergence: #cattle ease to MODERATE LONG from LARGE LONG on a +57K net (0K), 39% of range, #feeders ease to MODERATE LONG from MAX LONG on a +11K net (-1K), 43% of range, both bullish bias with cattle 231.125 over P230.575 but feeders 346.925 under P347.025; #hogs hold MAX SHORT on a -57K net (-3K), 0% of range and still past the -44K weekly record; six labels flip vs Oct 22 and no bias changes

☁️ #Cotton flips to SMALL SHORT from SMALL LONG, -5K on the day (4th of 10 on the board), 79% of range

📆 #Today: #UMich Sentiment final 9:00am CT, #CattleOnFeed 2:00pm CT, #COT 2:30pm CT; #crude 100.925 (+1.455), $DXY 101.804 (+0.197), #gold 4025.36 (+0.54)

☀️🌡️ #Weather: ECMWF ensemble 7-day precip thru Oct 29 Kansas 0.21-1.84in, Nebraska 0.37-1.83in, Iowa 0.15-1.07in, Oklahoma 0.09-0.51in, Missouri 0.02-0.22in, Illinois 0.01-0.16in; a 1.4-1.8in band runs from western Kansas through central Nebraska into South Dakota and southwest Minnesota while Missouri, Illinois and eastern Iowa stay dry, and the 7-day runs 5-12F above normal, warmest 11-12F over Iowa and northern Missouri, so the eastern harvest keeps rolling

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

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[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Heavenly Father, good morning. It's Friday, and I'm coming to you on the other side of a long week. The days started early and ran late, and somehow it still flew by. Looking back, I can see you were there every step of the way, in the early hours, the late nights, and every moment in between. Thank you for carrying me through it. Jesus, you said you are the vine and we are the branches, and that whoever stays in you will bear much fruit, because apart from you we can do nothing. I needed that reminder this morning. When the hours stack up, I start running on my own strength. I push through on coffee and willpower and forget that the branch doesn't produce anything by straining harder. It produces by staying connected. Forgive me for the moments this week when I acted like it all depended on me. Without you I really can do nothing, and the fact that I made it through the week tells me you were holding me up even when I wasn't thinking about it. So today I want to stay close. Before the first call, before the first screen, before the day starts pulling at me, I want to rest in you. Let whatever fruit comes from today come from you and not from me grinding harder. Lord, it's a beautiful day to be alive. I say that a lot because it's true. None of us knows how many days we get, and I don't want to waste the ones you've given me. While I'm here, I want to obey you. Not someday, not when life slows down, but today, in the ordinary things. Help me be patient with people, honest in my work, present with the ones I love, and quick to listen when you speak. Thank you for this week, for the strength to finish it, and for the gift of one more morning. Keep me rooted in you, today and every day. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

John 15:5 🙏🏼

[Nebraska Volleyball @HuskerVB]

WOWWWWW

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Equity mkt keeps this up we’ll be talking about rate cuts by next week…

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Santa Fe, Argentina soybean planting has started, reports there are of good subsoil moisture, wheat is looking really good so far. #soybeans 🌱 #wheat 🌾 #Argentina 🇦🇷

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

4hr Dec #Corn Note. 🌽🗒️

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

#Soybeans 🌱

202,000 mt Sold to China 🇨🇳

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

SovEcon lowered its Ukraine 2026/27 grain export forecast by 5.1 Mt to 33 Mt, with corn cut 18% to 17.2 Mt, wheat 7.7% to 14.4 Mt and barley to 1.4 Mt, while ending stocks are now seen at 31.5 Mt versus 26.6 Mt; July–October wheat shipments of 3.8 Mt are the lowest since 2011/12 as Odesa stays blocked and Danube vessels are hit. ADMIS's note separately cited the SovEcon cut to 33 Mt (−5.1 Mt, corn −3.8 Mt). A third of Ukraine's winter wheat area is in moisture deficit and Matif funds are long 137.8k lots after cutting 5.7k. #wheat 🌾 #Ukraine 🇺🇦

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Oct 22nd Trading Notes: 📝

🌽 #Corn eases to LARGE SHORT from MAX SHORT on a +167K net (+9K on the day, the biggest gain on the board, -64K since the Oct 13 COT), 66% of range, bearish bias but 463'6 now sits over P460, S 456/449, R 468/472

🌱 #Soybeans hold MODERATE SHORT on a +202K net (-6K, -35K since COT), 86% of range, bearish bias but 1246'6 sits over P1244, S 1238/1230, R 1251/1257

🌱 #Soymeal holds SMALL SHORT on a +177K net (-2K, -29K since COT), 91% of range, while #soyoil slides to LARGE SHORT from MODERATE SHORT on a +72K net (-8K), 65% of range; #oilshare eases to 48.9% from 49.0% but holds above both the 9 and 20 day EMAs, as board crush slides to $2.46 from $2.53 and stays under both EMAs

🌾 #Wheat holds MAX SHORT on a -65K net (-15K, the biggest cut on the board, -32K since COT), 40% of range, bearish bias with 625'4 under P631, S 618/608, R 641/654

🌽 Crowding: #meal 91%, #beans 86%, #cotton 80%, #corn 66%, #soyoil 65%, #KCWheat 55% dropping to MAX SHORT from LARGE SHORT on a +3K net (-8K) of historical range

🐂 Divergence: #cattle climb to LARGE LONG from MODERATE LONG on a +57K net (+3K), 39% of range, #feeders hold MAX LONG on a +11K net (+1K), 44% of range, both bullish bias with cattle 231.125 over P231.025 and feeders 348.825 over P348.475; #hogs drop back to MAX SHORT from MODERATE SHORT on a -57K net (-11K), 0% of range and further past the -44K weekly record; six labels flip vs Oct 21 and no bias changes

☁️ #Cotton flips to SMALL LONG from NEUTRAL, +4K on the day (7th of 10 on the board), 80% of range

📆 #Today: #ExportSales, #DroughtMonitor and #JoblessClaims 7:30am CT, #Japan CPI 6:30pm CT; #crude 99.160 (+2.01), $DXY 101.788 (+0.008), #gold 4064.40 (-76.7)

☀️ #Weather: ECMWF ensemble 7-day precip thru Oct 28 Kansas 0.18-1.78in, Oklahoma 0.13-1.68in, Nebraska 0.65-1.48in, Iowa 0.10-0.60in, Missouri 0.02-0.22in, Illinois 0.01-0.09in; a 1.4-1.8in band runs from western Kansas through central Nebraska into South Dakota while Missouri, Illinois and eastern Iowa stay dry, so the eastern harvest keeps rolling; in #Brazil the ECMWF ensemble 7-day total puts 150-300mm (max 334mm) across Parana and Santa Catarina into Sao Paulo, with Mato Grosso and the center-west at 30-75mm

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Brazil October corn exports now seen at 6.87 MMT, up 21% from 5.69 MMT a year ago and up from 6.41 MMT last week (ANEC). Jan-Oct corn still 26.34 MMT, 11% behind 2025. Oct soy flat y/y at 6.40 MMT. Brazilian corn is crowding the Q4 export window, so Gulf basis may need to work harder to keep U.S. corn moving. #corn 🌽 #Brazil 🇧🇷

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

☕✨ Coffee with Alpha video and commentary just dropped.

NEW Seasonals coming out tomorrow! 🌽🌱🌾🐂📊

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Hit the link and see what's waiting for you this morning. 👇

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[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Heavenly Father, I'm coming to you this morning for people I may never meet, but you know every one of them by name. The ones lying awake with a body that won't cooperate, waiting on test results, measuring life in treatments and appointments. The ones whose disease has quietly taken the future they planned. The ones fighting an addiction that promised relief and delivered chains. The ones living under a depression so heavy that getting out of bed feels like a victory nobody sees. And I'm praying for the ones who aren't sure anymore what any of it means. Who look at their life and wonder if there's a point to it. Who want out of where they are but don't know a single door to knock on, or a single person who'd answer. I confess I walk past a lot of these people. I've been so focused on my own work and my own worries that I've missed the quiet desperation sitting across the table or down the street. Forgive me for that. Open my eyes. Jesus, you said, "I am the way, the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." I want that to land on every person I'm praying for today. For the one who doesn't know where to turn, you are the way. Not a program or a plan, a person. For the one who's believed the lie that they're worthless, or that nothing will ever change, you are the truth, and your truth is stronger than any voice in their head. For the one whose body or mind or spirit is being drained, you are the life, and that life doesn't end when this one does. You didn't say you'd point to the way. You said you are it. That means nobody has to figure out the whole road today. They just have to turn toward you. So meet them where they are. In the hospital room, the rehab bed, the dark apartment, the truck in the parking lot. Send someone to them. Give them one honest conversation, one reason to hope, one step toward you. And where there's no one else, be there yourself. In Jesus' name, Amen. #dailyprayer✝️

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

John 14:6 🙏🏼

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

@grainsmanesfarm Thank you!

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Here’s what I’ve learned thru the years. It pays as a hedger who produces a crop just to be bearish 70% of the time, sell every 40c rally you get in corn, 70c rally in beans, 55c rally in wheat. Why? Statistics. The USDA is your friend when the report goes your way, your enemy when it doesn’t. The loudest people screaming bullish or bearish should been muted and ignored at all cost. Elliott Wave theory is the least reliable analysis in the world. Your backyard is not the market even if you live in Iowa or Illinois. Understanding money flow, bearish crosses, and keeping to a disciplined strategy will make you more money over the longer term than anything else in the markets (this is hard, especially the last part than many realize). Perhaps one of the most important aspects is you don’t have to trade every trade you see. It’s ok not to trade. A bad trade is just a learning lesson (bad decision in life = learning lesson). Understanding you are not in control, your creator is. He will provide. Forced outcomes = most of the time will not work. Always be kind, hard at times. Humble yourself, you are not better than anyone else. It’s ok be the wrong, just learn from it and move on quickly. Anyway, just some thoughts for this morning… ☕️

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

@jonbottiger I covered a little today on new crop. Others are at 5.30+ only looking to add to those. Targets going back in.

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Do you any anything on the books for Dec27 #corn? 🌽

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

An unnamed U.S. official said Russia accepted a U.S. proposal for a trilateral meeting that would include Kyiv directly. Earlier the Kremlin said a new round of Russia–U.S.–Ukraine talks may take place in Abu Dhabi, aide Ushakov told Interfax the conflict is 'nearing an end', and Witkoff briefed Putin on the Oslo talks, though the Kremlin said nothing 'of real use' for a settlement had emerged yet; Putin is reportedly ready in principle to resume trilateral talks in mid-November.

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

SOLID candle today in corn. 🌽