@netrovertHQ Get a bigger anchor.
I started making money because I didn't want my parents to suffer, now they are not suffering.
If I didn't change my anchor, my "why", I won't grow.
So now my anchor is bigger than my parents not starving, my hunger is bigger.
The market does not pay you for identifying greatness.
It pays you for buying greatness at a price where the future has not already been fully capitalized!
Okay Iβll indulge you. Youβve actually not given me a sound rebuttal but only listed out a few exciting potential catalysts that still doesnβt justify its valuation.
Your mature-company metric critique is funny. The point of referencing trailing P/E is not to say SpaceX should trade at 20x earnings but to show how much future success is already embedded in the current valuation. When a business trades at 1,000x trailing earnings, every bullish argument needs to spelll out the level of future earnings that makes its current price rational, and how long does it take to get there?
Until that math is shown, SpaceX is overvalued.
Yes trailing PE may be imperfect for an early stage company and thatβs exactly why I juxtaposed that with future earnings growth to put things in perspective. At 1000x PE, the burden of proof becomes absurdly high cos youβre not only pricing future potential but flawless execution by Elon.
βSpaceX is more than a rocket companyβ is also not a good argument. Even if we call it an infrastructure platform then value the actual cash flows of each layer, Starlink has to justify its economics (which itβs already doing to be fair), Launch has to justify its margins. Starship also has to move from mere ambition to proper commercial scale. Defense has to become material. The point is that XAI infra has to have real monetizable capacity and not just another capex-heavy adjacency with growth assumptions baked in. Can they grow 30% yoy? Only time will tell.
Also, hyperscaler-scale power consumption is not the same thing as hyperscaler-scale economics. A 500MW or 2GW buildout only tells me the ambition is enormous but says nothing about the potential ROIC which is the koko. Capex intensity can create value, but can also destroy value in the same manner if the market is already capitalizing the upside before the real actual returns show up.
Your Anthropic/XAI point is even funny cos Leasing spare capacity is great, but does not magically turn SpaceX into AWS. One customer using excess infrastructure does not prove durable pricing power, high margins, or a defensible cloud business. It proves there is demand for compute. We already knew that. Heck, every idiot knows this.
Finally, nothing against SpaceX btw and it may be one of the greatest companies ever built but it could still be overvalued at the current price. Those two truths can exist. The market does not pay you for identifying greatness. It pays you for buying greatness at a price where the future has not already been fully capitalized.
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@Ssaasquatch@Brainmetry this statement
"The market does not pay you for identifying greatness. It pays you for buying greatness at a price where the future has not already been fully capitalized."