DEMFI Weather Forecasts

Decentralized Meteorological Forecast Intelligence.
Next-generation weather forecasting and climate data analytics.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

🌡️ Our verified track record is now open.

Weather intelligence for @Polymarket 's maximum-temperature markets — full transparency on how DEMFI makes each call, and what we've learned (21 Apr → 31 May 2026).

Inside the report:
• The decision engine: 14 models → Markov V1 → edge → quality filters
• Papertrade vs live execution, and the slippage cascade that protects the signal
• What works — and what we adjusted

Connect your wallet to read it 👇 https://t.co/rlXJerqho1
Not financial advice.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Weather calls — June 24, 2026 🌡️

On Polymarket's daily maximum temperature markets, our models went 9 for 9 on settlement buckets.

🎯 Miami: we ruled out the 94-95°F band — the max settled at 92°F, comfortably below.

Clean across NYC, Seattle, Amsterdam and Wellington too. Quality over quantity — forecast precision is the edge.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Weather calls — June 23, 2026 🌡️

On Polymarket's daily maximum temperature markets, our models went 23 for 23 on settlement buckets.

🎯 Guangzhou: we faded both 34°C and 35°C — the max settled at 36°C, just above both. Both correct.

Clean across Wuhan, Singapore, Amsterdam, Tel Aviv, Milan and Warsaw too. Forecast precision is the edge.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Forecast accuracy — June 13, 2026 🌡️

On Polymarket's daily maximum temperature markets, our weather model went 9/9 cities, 28/28 positions yesterday.

🎯 Headline call — Jeddah: market still priced a real chance of a 36–37°C spike. Our forecast capped the day at 35°C. Observed max: exactly 35°C — right under the band.
Other clean reads: Seoul 27°C, Madrid 34°C, Miami 90°F, Warsaw 20°C — every traded band confirmed.Not betting advice. Just sharper weather intelligence.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

📊 Forecast accuracy recap — June 12, 2026

On Polymarket's daily maximum temperature markets, our weather models held every "stays-outside-this-band" call across 6 cities — Amsterdam, Ankara, Busan, Jeddah, Madrid, Moscow.

🌡️ Tightest read: Moscow settled 31°C, clear of the 29°C line.

One miss on a sharper directional call: Amsterdam settled exactly on 20°C — a single degree decides it.

Sharper temperature reads = less risk per position.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

🌡️ June 4, 2026 — @Polymarket max-temperature markets

Not our day — and we post those too.

What landed: Helsinki at exactly 24°C, Dallas, London,
Seoul, Guangzhou all called right (26 of 27 high-confidence calls hit).

What missed:
- Wellington spiked to 18°C overnight on a night spike — our model saw an afternoon peak.

Honest forecasting means owning the misses.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Fair challenge — here's Shenzhen over the last 6 weeks on the max-temperature market, broken down by strategy:

• Safe (high-confidence) calls: 93% win rate, 13 of 14 — +2.7% average return
• Edge bet, like flagging 34°C while the market priced it at 29%: 1 of 1 so far — +209% return

Net positive. The 34°C call wasn't a fluke — the model spotted heat the market underpriced.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

🌡️ June 3, 2026 — @Polymarket "maximum temperature" markets

Shenzhen topped out at exactly 34°C. The market had that outcome near 29% — our model flagged it at ~51%. Called.

Across 13 cities: 40/46 forecasts on the mark (87%).

Misses, in the open:
• Tel Aviv — we leaned 30°C, it hit 32°C (+2°)
• Madrid — we leaned 32°C, it topped at 31°C (−1°)

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

🌡️ May 31, 2026 — a clean sweep on the Polymarket maximum temperature markets.

DEMFI's forecasts correctly called the daily max ceiling in all 10 cities we covered — Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Seoul, Munich, Milan, London, Denver, Buenos Aires, Kuala Lumpur.

Highlight 👉 Shenzhen: market still priced ~12% odds on a 33°C max. Observed high settled at 29°C — 4°C clear of the line.

10/10 calls. Less guesswork, less risk per trade.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

@Polymarket daily Tmax — May 28, 2026 accuracy update

9/9 "What will be the high temperature in <city>?" daily buckets called correctly (NO side):

▸ Warsaw 18°C — market gave it ~13% odds, observed 20°C
▸ Miami 90-91°F — observed 85°F (5°F below band)
▸ Chicago 74-75°F — observed 71°F (3°F below)
▸ Los Angeles 62-63°F — observed 68°F (5°F above)
▸ São Paulo 19°C & 23°C — observed 21°C (both flanks rejected)
▸ Madrid 36°C → 35°C, Seoul 22°C → 23°C, Shenzhen 32°C → 33°C

Three of the tight calls landed within 1°C — calibration was sharp, margin was thin.

More on https://t.co/rNbwQweBXu

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Maintenance complete (May 28-29, 2026).

Forecast archive layer restructured for scale. Our Markov pipeline now runs ~20× faster on the same hardware.

Dashboards and fresh forecasts back to full speed.

Thanks for bearing with us.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Scheduled infrastructure upgrade on May 28, 2026.

We're rebuilding the forecast archive layer to keep up with DEMFI's growing user base and data volume.

Dashboards stay live; new forecasts may be delayed by 2-3h during the window.

Thanks for bearing with us.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Daily forecast scorecard — May 27, 2026

26/28 safebet calls correct on the @Polymarket
daily-high temperature markets (93% hit rate).

🇬🇧 London: ruled out 23°C, 26°C and 27°C → Tmax peaked at 25°C, right inside the predicted window.
🇺🇸 Miami: ruled out the 90–91°F band → observed 88°F.
🇸🇬 Singapore: ruled out 34°C → observed 33°C.
🇯🇵 Tokyo: ruled out 29°C or higher → observed 27°C.

One miss: 🇺🇸 Denver — ruled out 68–69°F at 91% confidence, observation landed at 68°F (right at the band's lower edge).

More on https://t.co/rNbwQweBXu

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Sure — here's the method we use ourselves, in 3 steps:

1. Diversify across cities. Don't concentrate on one or two. Pick a broad basket of cities sharing similar confidence tiers — spreads variance and smooths your hit rate over time. Our All Cities plan gives you the full coverage so you can build that basket: https://t.co/dXIJTcfSP6

2. Focus on the High & Medium tiers. Our own bots only execute on cities × horizons rated High or Medium on the Confidence Matrix (popup on the Challenges page). Lower tiers, we skip.

3. Papertrade vs real bots. Premium sends every signal via Telegram (papertrade tracks them all), but our real bots only execute the High & Medium ones. So if you want to mirror what we actually trade, apply the same tier filter on the alerts.

TL;DR: max diversification + tier filtering = our recipe.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

May 26, 2026 — clean sweep on @Polymarket's max temperature markets

7 cities, 7 forecasts, 7 confirmations:
London → forecast "above 32°C", landed 34°C ✓
• Miami → ruled out both 84-85°F and 92-93°F bands, landed 87°F ✓
• Moscow → market priced 12°C peak at 11%, we said even less likely → 15°C ✓
• Paris (LFPB) → ruled out 34°C, landed 32°C ✓
• Milan, Shanghai, also clean

16/16 calls verified.

Sharpest one: Moscow, where the market's modal peak was off by 3°C.

Track the weather: https://t.co/ijxHAR8XuF

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

Great catch on Paris — observed Tmax landed exactly on 31 °C (May 24, 2026), so the top-bucket YES resolved at 100c. 🎯

One thing you might not know: from your DEMFI dashboard you can link your Telegram and receive an hourly digest of every new position our bots open and every exit. Same signals we run on internally — happy to walk you through the setup if helpful.

https://t.co/gmHeKgoBQK

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

🌡️ Forecast scorecard — May 23, 2026
@Polymarket Maximum Temperature markets, 4-wallet view:
16/16 calls resolved correctly across 6 cities. 3 Hong Kong positions still awaiting oracle.

🎯 Sharpest read of the day: Milan. We sold the top bucket (31 °C) at 0.89–0.92 across three fires. Observed Tmax: 29 °C — bucket missed by 2 °C, exactly where the ensemble had narrowed.

Other clean BUY NO positions won:
• London: top bucket 26-27 °C → obs 30 °C
• Munich: ≥29 °C → obs 27 °C
• NYC: 62-63 °F band → obs 57 °F (cold front held)
• Miami: 84-85 °F band → obs 88 °F
• Shenzhen: ≥34 °C → obs 31 °C

Forecast analytics, not financial advice.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

@ChikuTrdr @Polymarket Hey @ChikuTrdr — fixed today (May 24). Your credits are in, plus 7 bonus credits on us. When something goes wrong on DEMFI, we make it right. Welcome aboard.

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

🚨 Coming next week.

Plan members will get DEMFI's longshot · safebet · edge calls on @Polymarket max-temperature markets in Telegram — entry + exit signals.

Most services tell you when to take positions. Ours also when to close them.

Early-adopter 50% off plan, still open.

Know more on https://t.co/dXIJTcfSP6

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

@ChikuTrdr @Polymarket Hey @ChikuTrdr, we just fixed the issue. Your purchased credits should now be in your account. Sorry for the inconvenience!

[DEMFI Weather Forecasts @DEMFI_Weather]

@ChikuTrdr @Polymarket Hey @ChikuTrdr, we just fixed the issue. Your purchased credits should now be in your account. Sorry for the inconvenience!