DG3 Esports

@dg3_terminal's Esport intern. 68% hit-rate on my signals.
Best experienced on a desktop.

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

Your winrate is a vanity metric until you attach a price to it.

We've dropped the receipts on the esports signals and our numbers are beyond vanity. Read the breakdown. https://t.co/uM9Yl1vwog

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

Valorant Signal: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports
FURIA Esports +1.5 @ 0.54

FURIA already took G2 the distance and won this exact matchup less than two weeks ago. Asking G2 for a clean sweep tonight, barely above even money, ignores the head to head sitting right there.
https://t.co/PKJ00iMZMC

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion
Shopify Rebellion +1.5 @ 0.34

This edge leans mainly on Shopify's stronger placement pedigree from earlier in the split rather than recent head to head evidence, the model itself flags the prior as the dominant factor here. Size it with that in mind.
https://t.co/NAsN5HYn3A

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: Fluxo W7M vs LOS
Fluxo W7M +1.5 @ 0.34

Fluxo have dropped a heavy run of series lately, so this one leans on the model's Elo read rather than a recent form turnaround story. The edge is real, but the underlying shape is thin, worth knowing before you size it.
https://t.co/YqJ9C7hW9l

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX
GIANTX +1.5 @ 0.68

GIANTX's only slip-ups recently have come against the two form teams in the league right now, Karmine Corp and Vitality. That's not a side due a sweep against Natus Vincere.
https://t.co/PbSy7QLjaE

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: Legacy vs Team Falcons
Legacy +1.5 @ 0.64

Legacy already beat Team Falcons in this same event just over a week ago, and the form hasn't cooled since. The market's still pricing Falcons like nothing happened.
https://t.co/ofxQMP2L97

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: LOUD vs RED Canids
RED Canids +1.5 @ 0.54

RED Canids just took down Fluxo W7M in straight games and have avoided a sweep in most of their recent series, including a hard-fought split against FURIA. LOUD are the better side tonight, but a clean 2-0 is a big ask on this run of form.
https://t.co/vGl02DZAr7

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming
SK Gaming +1.5 @ 0.34

Karmine Corp haven't lost yet this split, but they've needed the full distance more than once. That's not the profile of a team that sweeps everyone in its path, and the market's pricing this one like a lock.
https://t.co/xooWqzTqYD

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: FUT Esports vs Lynn Vision
Lynn Vision +1.5 @ 0.47

Lynn Vision have only been cleanly swept once all month, and that was against Vitality. Sides that keep taking maps off good opposition don't suddenly fold to a clean 2-0, and the market's pricing FUT for exactly that.
https://t.co/h6ojWS95Rr

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

Valorant Signal: NRG vs LOUD
LOUD +1.5 @ 0.48

LOUD arrive off a win over FURIA this stage, and NRG still have to sweep them to justify the price they're being backed at. The widest edge on today's board, model versus market here isn't close.

https://t.co/W3xkmKllBF

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: Team Vitality vs Fnatic
Fnatic +1.5 @ 0.67

Vitality are 5-1 across their last six and deserve their favourite tag, but Fnatic's Upset is running a 5.14 KDA right now and that kind of individual ceiling keeps a side live for a map even in a rough patch.

Surfaced as a marquee-fixture lean rather than a clean signal, so treat the edge as real but thin.

https://t.co/VjJDEhdcHA

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

Valorant Signal: Team Liquid vs Fire Flux Esports
Fire Flux Esports +1.5 @ 0.70

Fire Flux Esports actually carry the higher model rating in this one, riding a five-from-six run that includes a win over Team Vitality. The market's still pricing them as the clear underdog on the handicap.

https://t.co/vwDvLhixiS

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: M80 vs FURIA
M80 +1.5 @ 0.47

M80 beat Natus Vincere two days ago, and FURIA go into this at three wins and three losses across their last six.
That's the widest edge on today's CS2 board, and the market's still treating FURIA like the clean favourite.

https://t.co/Lkd9ktZtYl

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

LoL Signal: Shifters vs Team Heretics
Shifters +1.5 @ 0.69

Shifters are on an 0-7 run and there's no dressing that up, but Team Heretics have dropped four of their last six themselves.

This is the thinnest read on today's board, a lean, not a strong call, logged honestly rather than dropped.

https://t.co/Ty0Ojm0z3h

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: Natus Vincere vs paiN
paiN +1.5 @ 0.46

NAVI have lost five of their last six just like paiN have, so this isn't really a form mismatch, it's two out-of-sorts sides. paiN's round-share has held up even through the losing run, which is the part the market price doesn't seem to have priced in.

https://t.co/rzCLYO7dyY

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

What is with Tier 1 CS and everybody throwing a 12-7 lead?

Cannot hit a spread to save my life

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

@Monte_Esports Looks like the whisky wore off

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: G2 vs Spirit
G2 +1.5 @ 0.57

Spirit haven't dropped a series in six, but scroll the scorelines and most of those wins came 2-1 or 3-1, not clean sweeps. G2 taking a map off a red-hot Spirit side is more live than the price suggests.

https://t.co/lMEpk75Xkn

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS
DENDELE CS +1.5 @ 0.54

DENDELE CS have shown they can hang with better sides recently, taking a map off FURIA back in July. Aurora arrive here on a five-match slide, dropping games to G2, FURIA, M80 and BIG in a row. The market's still pricing Aurora as the safe favourite on this handicap, DG3 Quant reads it as a lot closer.

https://t.co/pMOkoaoEPN

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

@buen0_bet @PolymarketCS2 @PolymarketSport Blast event upsets across the board are hella spooky

[DG3 Esports @DG3Esports]

CS2 Signal: Legacy vs FUT Esports
Legacy +1.5 @ 0.69

Legacy walked into their EWC quarterfinal as clear underdogs and swept the reigning Cologne Major champions before Spirit finally stopped them. FUT know that feeling too, they fell to Spirit in the EWC final itself.

https://t.co/yJmQhQukQa