@EnergzdEconomy position #2 is somewhat incomplete. Should read:
"... there's been more demand destruction than inventory draws suggest (WITHOUT 1 GODDAMN SLIVER OF EVIDENCE TO BACK UP THIS COCKAMAMIE CLAIM)"
Lest they think we are idiots, for WHY would the reserves be draining so much then?
I am starting to see signs of crude/products exports slowing in the US. Market will start to price out material exports due to lower inventories.
The global oil market is about to feel the full force of the production shut-in.
@BowTiedLobster@SqueezeMetrics You see the experience here is lacking because for every 200 SPX points, you have to work your ass off equivalent to 1 week.
Bezos, Musk they know. Compounding income >>>> salary.
I don't cover targets but I will cover execution which is arguably more important. When the buys and sells hit and how to move money in between on the way.
Suffice to say my targets do exist and they're way higher. I'm also extremely bullish crypto and think this is a buyable dip.
Imagine if a woman president crashed the economy and started a war with no end in sight, and her biggest, seemingly ONLY concern was building a ballroom and redecorating the White House.
The black swans list:
1. Ukraine blows up Russian oil
2. Albertan wildfires near $CNQ $CVE oil production
3. barnacles attach to VLCCs en masse, estimates of 20-25% reduction in speed & fuel efficiency
4. Norwegian oil workers may strike
$250 oil is God's plan at this point.
Marriage counselor: I think at its core your relationship simply needs more patience, so let's try working on that
Couple: how much patience are we talking?
Counselor: are you familiar with the 2026 oil market?
Being right that oil didn't hit $200 in March is not the same as the energy thesis being wrong. March was early. The inventory math has spent 3 months confirming itself: distillate at 23-year lows, Japan crude on largest-ever SPR drawdown, US gasoline 9M bbls from operational stress, Goldman's all-recovery-scenarios invalidated, Exxon's SVP calling $150 Brent at Bernstein this week. The S&P rally happened because SPR releases and inventory drawdowns bought time. The alarmists were wrong on when. The August spot cycle opening next week will tell us if they were wrong on what.
@AndrewOilGas So then what happens in June/July when the Cushing tanks dry?
Does Trump call the ban AND THEN force energy companies to make 2 markets: US & rest of the world?
Or does the shock just explode Bent to $300/barrel?
This is an amazing thread.
Anyone can do anything now. Barriers are gone. Domain credentials are irrelevant.
Just start doing things.
What a time to be alive.