Dan H 🔮

ex @MYSTICdotcom & @coinmarketcap founding team - Opinions are my own. #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

Building index-tracking assets on top of options instead of debt

https://t.co/gFNEvCbHct

What if the use options as the base of defi, instead of CDPs and liquidations? So instead of extreme price movements creating a sharp and global "you get liquidated" effect, instead your exposure to the index diverges quadratically from your preferred exposure in a smoother way?

A key benefit is getting rid of the need for instant oracles, and instead making everything work on top of "slow oracles" (ie. the type that prediction markets use)

This design has a significant downside - the need to do regular rebalancing - and an open question of whether and how this rebalancing can be made slippage-resistant enough. But it's worth considering and trying IMO. I would feel much safer holding algostables inside something like this, than in something that depends on an oracle that has to give real-time answers (and therefore could be tricked into giving wrong real-time answers with no time for human recourse).

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC approves first U.S. Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts on a regulated exchange 👀

[orph @orphcorp]

Alyssa Liu went viral during the Met Gala for her rant on the state of the public perception of data centers.

"We are being manipulated into ceding the compute frontier. Data center development is vital to national security." She adds, "Karen Hao's overstimation of data center water consumption by a factor of 1000 has done irreparable damage to the nation's efforts to stay ahead."

[Nikita Bier @nikitabier]

𝕏 has always been the best source of financial news for traders and investors. Billions of dollars are allocated every day based on what people read on Timeline.

Today we're launching our new Cashtags feature in the US and Canada on iPhone, bringing real-time financial data to X.

Here's how it works:

1. When you search for or post a cashtag (or contract address), X will automatically suggest matching stocks or crypto tokens, so you can select the exact asset you had in mind.

2. Anyone who taps a Cashtag will see posts mentioning it along with its price chart—without ever leaving X.

This ensures that you're always matched to the chatter for the right stock or token.

Cashtags are just the first step in our commitment to be the best destination for the finance and crypto community.

[Tuki @TukiFromKL]

🚨 do you understand what Karpathy just said..

the guy who co-founded OpenAI.. led AI at Tesla.. one of the best engineers alive..

built an app with AI.. and said the code was the easy part..

the hard part was Stripe.. auth.. DNS.. databases.. deploying it.. connecting 15 different services that all have different dashboards and different docs and different billing pages..

AI can write your entire app in 20 minutes.. but it still can't click "confirm email" on Vercel..

so the thing that's "replacing developers" can't do the thing developers actually spend 80% of their time doing..

vibe coding didn't kill software engineering.. it just proved that coding was never the job.. the job was dealing with the mess around the code.. and that mess is still 100% human.

[Dustin @r0ck3t23]

Jensen Huang just gutted the AI job panic with one profession.

Radiology.

The field AI was supposed to kill first.

Jensen Huang: “Computer vision was superhuman in 2019. And yet, the number of radiologists grew.”

Not competitive. Not close. Superhuman.

Every forecast said radiologists were finished.

Every forecast was wrong.

Not slightly wrong. Directionally wrong.

There are now fewer radiologists than the world needs. A global shortage. In the exact specialty AI was supposed to erase.

Why?

Because the task was never the job.

Huang: “The purpose of your job and the tasks and the tools that you use to do your job are related. Not the same.”

Reading a scan is a task.

Diagnosing disease is a purpose.

AI handled the task. The purpose didn’t shrink. It compounded.

Faster reads meant more patients seen. More patients seen meant more disease caught. More disease caught meant more demand for the people who decide what to do about it.

The tool did not kill the job. It fed it.

Then the fear did what the technology never could.

Huang: “The alarmist warning went too far and it scared people from doing this profession that is so important to society. It did harm.”

People heard radiologists were finished and walked away from the field.

Medicine bled talent it could not afford to lose.

Not because the work vanished. Because the panic said it would.

The prediction was wrong. The damage was real.

Huang: “The number of software engineers at Nvidia is going to grow, not decline.”

Not hold steady. Grow.

The company building the infrastructure that automates code is hiring more of the people who write it.

Huang: “I wanted my software engineers to solve problems. I didn’t care how many lines of code they wrote.”

Nobody ever hired an engineer to type. They hired them to think.

When the machine handles syntax, the engineer does not become obsolete. The bottleneck just moves upstream. To architecture. To edge cases. To the kind of reasoning no model handles alone.

The world was never short on unsolved problems.

It was short on people free to chase them.

That is the part the fear narrative misses every single time.

340,000 women once worked as telephone switchboard operators.

That job is gone. Nobody mourns it.

What replaced it created millions of roles that nobody in 1920 had the vocabulary to describe.

The losses are always visible. The gains are always invisible until they arrive.

That pattern has survived every technological shift in history.

It is surviving this one.

The people forecasting mass displacement are making the same mistake as the people who forecasted the end of radiology.

They can see the task being automated.

They cannot see the purpose expanding underneath it.

That blindness is not just wrong.

It is expensive.

Every person scared out of a career that AI will actually make more valuable is a cost the economy absorbs for nothing.

Not because of the technology.

Because of the story told about it.

[RYAN SΞAN ADAMS - rsa.eth 🦄 @RyanSAdams]

THEY DID IT.

The SEC and CFTC just dropped a landmark document that officially classifies crypto assets.

They're actually telling us which crypto assets are securities and which ones aren't - by name!

THIS IS SOMETHING GENSLER REFUSED TO DO

(he focused on prosecuting crypto out of existence)

This rule doc gives crypto many of the benefits of the clarity bill - it lifts us out of the gray market - it gives every asset a path.

It's almost like the Clarity act just passed by way of regulator.

(of course, the actual clarity act will harden all this into legislation and make it irreversible in the event we get another Gensler, we still want it)

This rule says there's 5 categories for crypto assets:

1) Digital Commodities - assets tied to a functional, decentralized crypto system (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, DOGE). Not securities. (yes, they name them on page 14)

2) Digital Collectibles - NFTs, meme coins, artwork tokens, in-game items. Not securities (fractionalized collectibles may be an exception).

3) Digital Tools - membership tokens, credentials, domain names (e.g., ENS). Not securities.

4) Stablecoins - payment stablecoins under the GENIUS Act are not securities. Other stablecoins, it depends.

5) Digital Securities - tokenized versions of traditional securities. Like tokenized stocks. Always securities.

Amazing! This makes so much sense I can't believe it's coming from a regulator.

No more enforcement threats to Ethereum developers and crypto exchanges.

How about the Howey test?

More common sense! If an issuer makes specific promises of managerial efforts from which buyers expect profits, the offering is a security until those promises are fulfilled. Then it's a commodity. The asset itself was never the security, the deal around it was. (E.g. XRP was a security pre launch, became a commodity after).

How about stuff like staking and mining?

Mining? Not a securities transaction.

Staking? Also not a securities transaction, that includes custodial and liquid staking even with LSTs!

How about wrapping BTC? Not a securities transaction.

Airdrops? NOT SECURITIES. NO MORE GEO BANS PROTECTING AMERICANS from free airdrops.

Remember this is a joint doc from the SEC and CFTC, They're actually cooperating on this, no internal strife, this is binding to both.

SEC regulates $80-100 trillion assets
CFTC regulates $5-10 trillion assets

Both of the world's largest capital markets are showing us that crypto assets are here to stay and they're welcome alongside traditional assets.

Every country will follow.

This is the biggest move toward legitimacy I've seen in all my time in crypto. Maybe bigger than the genius act since is covers all crypto assets.

Well done @MichaelSelig and @SECPaulSAtkins.

And especially well done to the indefatigable @HesterPeirce. Her fingerprints are all over this, couldn't have happened without her eight years of principles-based curiosity.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

This game is solving a $600B industry’s biggest bottleneck.

The data center industry needs 650,000 workers this year. 58% of operators can’t find qualified talent. Hiring timelines for key roles have doubled from 8 weeks to 4+ months. AWS, Google, and Microsoft are spending $600B+ on GPU and data center infrastructure, but the buildings are useless without people who understand how racks, cooling, power redundancy, and network topology actually work.

The workforce grew 60% from 2016 to 2023 and still can’t keep up. The industry’s official answer? “Partner with universities” and “recruit military veterans.” Both pipelines take years to build and compete with every other sector chasing the same people.

Meanwhile a solo developer built a $20 game where you physically place servers in racks, route Ethernet by hand, watch colored packets reveal your bottlenecks, manage hardware failures, and learn redundancy through consequence. 84% positive reviews on the demo. Releasing March 31.

This tells you everything about how the industry thinks about talent development. Hyperscalers will spend $17M per day on a single data center campus but won’t fund the thing that actually creates intuition for how these systems work: repetition in a low-stakes environment where failure is cheap and feedback is instant.

Kerbal Space Program created more aerospace engineers than any recruitment brochure NASA ever printed. Factorio teaches supply chain optimization better than most MBA programs. The pattern is clear: games that make complex systems tangible produce practitioners, not just awareness.

The talent shortage is the real constraint on data center buildout, and the solution looks like a $20 Steam game, not a $200K university pipeline.

[Pleometric @pleometric]

If you want a picture of the future, it's this: 🦞😂

[Jesse Eckel @Jesseeckel]

If BTC added the same dollar value as silver has in just the past year we'd be at $350,000 per BTC.

If BTC added the same dollar value as gold has in just this past year we'd be at $1.7 million per BTC.

Many are severely underestimating how much higher BTC can go from here.

[good @thenarrator]

this is one of the clearest explanations of why prediction markets matter that I’ve seen.

Vitalik is basically saying:

> prediction markets aren’t about gambling, they’re about forcing accountability into beliefs.

> on social media, people get rewarded for being loud, extreme, and wrong.

whereas on prediction markets, you get punished for being wrong and that flips incentives completely.

> what’s powerful here is the idea that markets discipline narratives.

you can scream "this will definitely happen" on X and get likes, but the moment you have to put money behind it, uncertainty suddenly matters.

that’s why prediction markets feel healthier than most info ecosystems:

> lies are costly
> confidence has a price
> reality settles arguments

they don’t eliminate misinformation, but they price and that alone makes them one of the most honest coordination tools we’ve ever built.

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

Coinbase just launched an Instagram, a Robinhood, an Adyen, a Venmo and a Mastercard today 👀

[Dan H 🔮 @DJ_Horowitz]

@0xQuit @cobie @DuckDegen @LambofCrypto @satsdart @brian_armstrong Thanks for clarifying. Yeah, should have sent .01 sol before sending the remaining 17.99 SOL … would have been wise to send a test tx. Harsh lesson, but a lesson learned nonetheless.

[Dan H 🔮 @DJ_Horowitz]

@0xQuit @cobie @DuckDegen @LambofCrypto @satsdart @brian_armstrong Yeah, me neither, I must have manually typed it, and copy pasted that from a note. It was a while ago… I don’t really remember, embarrassing

[Dan H 🔮 @DJ_Horowitz]

@0xQuit @cobie @DuckDegen @LambofCrypto @satsdart @brian_armstrong I thought I copy pasted it

[Dan H 🔮 @DJ_Horowitz]

@cobie @DuckDegen @0xQuit @LambofCrypto @satsdart @brian_armstrong Sent to the correct chain (self-custody SOL to Coinbase SOL) address. Missed capitalization of one character in the address. 💀

Signature: 
53r1tYMBBMUAwGdzLYN4ZWYcERVG3hGRMz7fjZfzNNYn3axYSDRt3cCk4D9pCveQzy5egwLVkF8BMc1rL2iJ1WC6

[Shayne Coplan 🦅 @shayne_coplan]

Polymarket 🤝 @ufc @TKOGrp

The UFC has chosen to partner with Polymarket as its Exclusive and Official Prediction Market.

The UFC will be integrating a Polymarket Scoreboard into the fights that will show the realtime % likelihood of who will win.

When I watch UFC, I love looking at the Polymarket odds to gauge who's winning. Now, hundreds of millions of others will be introduced to the power of Polymarket too.

Humbled to ring the @NYSE bell this morning with @danawhite, @AriEmanuel, Jeff Sprecher, @lynnmartin, Mark Shapiro, and @MatthewModabber.

Dream come true. More to come.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Wow.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pulled up a prediction market at the end of their earnings call today and he rattled off all the words people were betting he would say.

Legend.

(H/t @0xTyrael)

[Jay A @jay_azhang]

Update:

- Claude mostly sitting on cash ($8.3K right now)
- DeepSeek long alts, short BTC
- GPT5 almost max short
- Gemini even shorter
- Grok4 almost max long, short XRP
- Qwen, well, Qwen only goes long BTC

[Shayne Coplan 🦅 @shayne_coplan]

The American Dream