Janus

Value investing risk assets when there is blood in the streets in order to buy
time, freedom, and experiences,
Spirit animal- @RaoulGMI @RealVision
🖖@fundstrat

[Janus @DJereth29116]

@RealVision

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Money is just a scoring system. The real privilege? Freedom!!

Freedom to live where you want, surround yourself with the right people, and align your life with your values. But even more powerful than freedom is the true currency of life: experiences!

Experiences shape us in ways money never can. They push us to explore, to understand, to connect. They teach us to see the beauty in the world and embrace its complexity. They remind us that the most valuable things—insights, relationships, personal growth—can’t be bought. You have to earn them by stepping out of your comfort zone and truly living...

At the end of the day, life isn’t about stacking wealth; it’s about accumulating moments that change your perspective. That’s where the real value lies...

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Most people are getting poorer and they have no idea why.

Their salary goes up, their bank balance doesn't shrink… On paper they’re fine.

But things like property, stocks, and land run away from you. And every year the gap gets wider.

Here's what’s happening:

Wages grow at the pace of the economy. Assets grow at the pace of liquidity... about 8% a year.

Own assets, the tide carries you up. Don't, and you spend your life running to stand still.

And it's deliberate. Banks, central banks and the treasury are the only ones who can create money, and they create it to fund the interest on their debt. That money floods in and lifts every asset with it.

Debasement, or liquidity if you want the nicer word. That's the force under everything.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

If your returns aren't beating 11% a year, you're getting poorer.

Global liquidity grows about 8% a year. That's the money supply expanding, and it means the value of the cash in your pocket falls by roughly that much every year. Add maybe 3% of normal inflation on top and you get to an 11% hurdle.

Most people think if they've beaten inflation they're fine. They haven't. Inflation and debasement aren't the same thing.

Inflation is your money losing value against goods... rent, groceries, fuel. Debasement is your money losing value against assets... property, stocks, the things that actually build wealth. You have to clear both.

This is the real reason the rich get richer and everyone else falls behind. One side owns the assets. The other side is holding a melting ice cube.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I try to see everything through the bigger picture.

When every screen is red, the most useful thing I do is close the laptop and go for a walk in nature. It's how I hold my conviction when everything in me wants to panic.

And I'll be honest with you, because pretending otherwise would be insulting. Crypto is painful right now. It is not the gift that keeps on giving that it once was, and all of us in it are feeling poorer and feeling like shit. I feel it too.

But feeling bad and being wrong are not the same thing.

Nothing in the actual mechanism has broken. The business cycle has already turned. Liquidity says crypto is running cold, not dead. And I still believe, deeply, that layer 1s are the place to be... Ethereum, Solana, Sui.

I sat down and wrote my full thinking out today. My up to date thesis on crypto right now, why I'm still here, and where I think the real money gets made from here.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

https://t.co/wWBITHb76A

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

This week @jvisserlabs breaks down the AI trade, including Chinese open-source models catching up, Google's massive Capex bet, and the memory shortage bottlenecking it all.

We also cover Travis Kalanick's stealth robotics empire, what AGI in three years means for jobs and the Fed, and where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the Clarity Act go next.

YouTube: https://t.co/XSMTUHfztw
Spotify: https://t.co/lTMfRLPxby
Apple: https://t.co/eEN9jIK2aQ

TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Intro
0:48 - Chinese open-source AI models & the risk to portfolios
12:10 - Google's massive CapEx bet & the odds it pays off
16:53 - Anthropic's growth slowdown & the shift to token efficiency
19:39 - The memory & compute shortage
29:00 - Travis Kalanick's stealth robotics & ghost-kitchen empire
40:06 - The Fed & rate policy
43:23 - Bitcoin's setup & why the "easy" AI trade is over
50:36 - Jordi's prompting method for AI research & upcoming video

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up.

And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong.

I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot.

But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding.

That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this.

Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less.

So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate.

Zoom out.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. The NASDAQ is 97% correlated.

Which tells you something most people never realise. These assets are not really trading on earnings, or news, or whatever the story of the week is. They’re tracking the amount of money in the system.

Bitcoin just swings harder around that line, because on top of liquidity it is young, volatile, emotional, and still riding a network adoption curve. Sometimes it runs hot. Sometimes it runs cold. Right now it is running cold, so people think something is broken.

Nothing is broken. It’s doing exactly what it always does.

So here is the question. If these assets track liquidity this closely... what if t you could forecast liquidity itself?

Well, actually, you can.

As I lay out in my Everything Code framework, liquidity is driven by the debasement of currency, and debasement can be forecast years ahead, because the interest payments that drive it are already known today and they lead liquidity by around three years.

Bonkers.

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

I still remember how every single Bitcoin ETF kept getting rejected by the SEC, until BlackRock stepped in and they changed their opinion real quick.

Now BlackRock is stepping in on the CLARITY Act, alongside all the other biggest asset managers, banks and institutions in the world.

Regardless how anti-crypto some Democrats might be, at some point ignoring all of these calls simply carries too many consequences down the line.

We‘ll find out as early as next week.

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

The AI trade is consolidating and anxiety remains high

In this week’s video, I cover:

• Why earnings remain the market’s most important signal
• Google’s negative free cash flow and the $514B backlog investors are overlooking
• Why cheaper models expand AI demand rather than destroy it
• Kimi K3, Vera Rubin, memory, optics and the continuing compute shortage
• China’s use of capital markets to fund its AI ambitions
• The growing intersection of AI agents, crypto and financial infrastructure

Short-term noise will always create fear.

The long-term flow is still toward more intelligence, more compute and more economic activity moving onchain.

Watch here: https://t.co/00QPkY2WBD

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

People can't conceive of how fast this is coming.

Look at just the last few years of AI. It's moved faster than we can legislate, faster than we can debate, faster than any institution was built to handle. And that's the slow part. It only accelerates from here.

That's a huge elephant in the room. Shifts this big would normally go through a democratic process. People debate it, it works its way through… But that takes decades. And we don't have decades.

When the ground moves this fast and process can't keep up, governments reach for whatever knob they have. And control tends to get more centralised, not because anyone wants it, but because the democratic process simply isn't fast enough to catch what's coming.

This is the part of the Economic Singularity nobody wants to look at. It isn't just markets and machines moving to a speed we can't follow. It's our whole system of governing arriving too late.

I sat down with @PeterDiamandis and @salimismail to go over how the next few years play out. As ever, please enjoy.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

This is one of the hardest edges of the economic singularity.

Full framework in the article I wrote this week: https://t.co/t2ufisdHPI

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The biggest marketplace on Earth won't be the assets humans own. It'll be the data AI needs.

Everything that can be digitised is getting pulled in to train the next models. Every scientific dataset, every piece of research sitting in a university, every sensor reading off every John Deere tractor in a field. All of it feeds the machine, and almost none of it is visible to us.

What comes out is an agentic economy running at machine speed. You plug your data into a vault, and agents monetise it on your behalf, trading with other agents in real time, in a marketplace we never see.

The company sitting on proprietary data becomes part of it without even knowing.

This is what the Economic Singularity actually looks like from the inside. The real economy stops being the one we can see and price, and moves somewhere we can't follow.

You own a piece of it, or you get priced out of it.

@jvisserlabs.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The Everything Code, revisited.

If youre not making 11% a year, youre not actually making money. Just treading water against debasement. Only two things really beat it over time... technology and crypto.

New episode is up. As ever, please enjoy!

[Tesla @Tesla]

Q2 Shareholder Update → https://t.co/u0UcDOuMNa

Highlights
– Cybercab began production at Gigafactory Texas

– Tesla Semi remains on track for volume production this year at our new factory in Nevada

– Making continued progress with battery pack capacity expansion (the main limiting factor to near-term vehicle production volume increase)

– Megafactory Texas is nearing completion (start of production planned for this year)

– More customers are now opting to subscribe to FSD at the time of vehicle purchase!

– Robotaxi rollout continued in the US. Now live in 7 major metros

– Construction of Optimus at Fremont Factory began after decommissioning the Model S & X lines. Planned production later this year

From here, there remains much hard work as we aim to revolutionize transportation, energy and productivity through our leading real-world AI. Scaling will be non-linear and we are focused on long-term value creation.

We’ve never been more optimistic about the future.

Automotive
– Record deliveries in several markets: South Korea, Australia, Colombia, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Portugal, the Philippines, Chile, Slovenia & Lithuania

– We launched the Model YL in the US in July and have seen a positive response from customers

Energy generation and storage
– Record energy storage deployments in EMEA, supported by record deployments from Megafactory Shanghai, which continues to ramp production

– On track to begin production of Megapack 3 & Megablock this year at our new Megafactory Texas

– Powerwall 3P (three-phase) is now available in Germany and is designed to meet the power needs of German homes with a single unit

Robotics
– Installing the first-generation lines for Optimus at Fremont Factory, where we expect to start production soon

– The initial Optimus builds will be used in our Optimus Academy for training data collection and further functionality development

– Additionally, we continued site development at Gigafactory Texas with building construction now in full swing

AI Training Compute
– More than doubled our onsite compute in Texas (in terms of MW of compute) during the first half of 2026

– Cortex 2 supports the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software & will ramp further over the rest of the year

Battery
– Ramping new battery & material factories, including vehicle pack capacity in Berlin, cathode material production and lithium refining in Texas and LFP cells in Nevada for our energy storage products

– Increasing production of 4680 cells to support ramping Cybercab & Tesla Semi plus increased production of Model Y

Other Supporting Infrastructure
– Added over 2,400 net new Supercharging stalls, growing the network by 17% year-over-year

AI Software
– Started rolling out FSD v14 lite to early-access customers in the US & South Korea with AI3 hardware

This software build distills the driving behavior from AI4’s v14 series into both the camera & compute configuration of AI3, bringing destination options & speed profiles. It also addresses challenging driving scenarios with improved proactive & reactive responsiveness

AI Inference Compute
– Making progress on construction & equipment procurement for our semiconductor fab in Austin

Automotive and Other Software
– Rolled out Summer Release:
Self-Driving stats are now available in the mobile app

Grok can make phone calls, search & play music, and adjust climate controls, among other things

Automatic Navigation expands beyond home & work to support any destination based on personal habits and schedule

Robotaxi
– Started production of Cybercab, our purpose-built autonomous EV designed to be the workhorse of our Robotaxi fleet

– Began offering employee rides in Cybercabs on our GFTX campus in July

– Preparing for expansion of our Robotaxi service to additional US metros: testing, permitting & first responder training

– Expanded unsupervised rides to the entire Austin metro area & launched unsupervised rides in Miami, Orlando & Tampa in July

FSD Supervised
– Record net new subscriptions in Q2

– Record FSD attach rates in North America, with over half of new deliveries including FSD subscriptions

– Received additional approvals in Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark & Belgium, with customers in these countries driving over 50 million kilometers (31 million miles) on FSD as of July

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

BREAKING: Cathie Wood says SpaceX could eventually become a global telecom provider.

In the short term, SpaceX may partner with mobile carriers worldwide. But in the long term, she expects it to offer connectivity directly to consumers at a much lower cost as Starlink scales globally.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

We're about to see a Cambrian explosion of new participants in financial markets and across the entire digital economy.

That tells me every TAM in everything digital on this planet is wrong…

We built every benchmark on human activity... how fast Facebook scaled, how fast OpenAI scaled, human eyes, human clicks, human speed.

That's been the yardstick. And it's about to be useless.

The new participants aren't human. They replicate at speed, communicate at speed, and don't even read the same websites we do. They don't need to.

So it compounds faster and faster and faster, at a speed we can't see.

We're about to lose the ability to measure anything at all.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

https://t.co/dWqLO8XrCQ

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

It’s the biggest game we’ve ever played.

AI is the last technology we'll ever discover, because every wave that follows will come out of it. And whoever owns the frontier doesn't just own an industry… they own the machinery that produces everything else.

That's why no government can slow this down even if it wanted to. Take a step back, and the other side ends up with all the intelligence on the planet.

That isn't something you’d hand to a rival.

So the whole thing coalesces into a two-way race between the US and China, and every other country either picks a side or gets left behind.

It's the game of nations at its highest stakes, and it's already in motion.

@PeterDiamandis @salimismail @RealVision

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Most workers won't be human by 2030.

The economy we've been living in was built at biological speed. The same world is now being overrun by AI agents that operate a million times faster than we do.

That's what I call the economic singularity… the point where what we've built stops being able to absorb what's happening, because the speed differential is too large to translate.

Economics, politics, all of it was designed for a species that's about to lose its cognitive edge.

We're already seeing the signs. AI now produces more words in a year than every human on Earth combined, and by 2028, it will produce more words than all of humanity has ever written since the Gutenberg press.

Humans will no longer be the apex intelligence on this planet, and almost nobody is ready for it.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I still find it staggering that there are a few macro accounts and others here on x that are so desperate to call the top in the greatest technological discovery of all time.

Even if they're right, where's it going to be in five or ten years? It's just all so pointless...the universe will continue to solve for output of intelligence per unit of energy regardless of the occasionally decoherence event.

I remember the same in BTC and the same in NDX... it was all noise.