Definitely some insider trading yesterday prior to the news today as ethanol prices rocketed higher (Nov jumped nearly 6 cents).
October crush margin for the 2nd half jumped to $0.42 yesterday... we'll see if ethanol rallies again now that the news is actually public.
$ALTO $GPRE
I think we can assume that $PESI lost money in Q3, but the most important indicator for me is the backlogs. If they can show a huge increase in backlogs that should indicate that they can be cash flow positive in Q4 and beyond. Stock will go $20+ if market takes the "equity raise" risk premium out - which it should - if management can give certainty on the cash flow front. Again, I think a focus on the backlogs would be the main indicator of this.
@DOMOCAPITAL $PESI I am long, just a bit jaded especially after the mess created by IR. I am glad you are confident that there is no need for a raise. That would imply some green shoots in the next ER. Many doubt this and expect another disappointing ER. What green shoots do you expect? Thnks
@vrotjan I agree with your assessment, but disagree in the validity. I am very confident no further dilution is required and that the company will soon be free cash flow positive. Their backlogs should be skyrocketing.
Fantastic article on $PESI here: https://t.co/7CoHjY2fcZ
Extremely undervalued stock and market is putting way too much emphasis on whether or not Washington Ecology approves grouting at 200 East sooner vs later. It's going to happen and the West is already approved. $100+ stock moving forward. This is a $4.4 BILLION dollar project and $PESI has a market cap of just $276M. I expect them to be free cash flow positive by Q4 of this year and then (as you can see in article) the volumes really ramp-up whether grouting is approved or not (and it will be as soon as Ecology can approve without it bolstering Republicans in the mid-terms by giving Trump credit for accelerating a project no other administration cared to accelerate - a huge win for the people of Washington).
PESI is the ONLY vendor listed on the official DOE. The facility is only one mile away plus it's a huge benefit to the local unions whose workers get to benefit from a local problem. Governor's of states with competitors have already said there's no way they'd allow the liquid nuclear waste to be transported through their state in order to be treated.
There is no competitor for PESI.
The market is completely sleeping on this. PESI has line of sight towards potentially $500M of annual, incremental revenue in the coming years with a revenue stream that will last DECADES yet trades at $277M.
Not many opportunities like this come along and there is practically zero exposure to any sort of market or economic downturn. This is a court mandated clean-up project that will accelerate no matter what the economy does.
Not a recommendation - do your own due diligence - but this is now a significant position for our clients.
Adjusted EBITDA should be lower than Q2 and last year's Q3 (this year's Q2 was actually higher than last year's Q3!). But EPS should definitely be above analyst estimates and could possibly top Q2 EPS. Market doesn't understand how the hedges on the specialty alcohol work. Q2 EPS were penalized simply because the price of ethanol fell a bit during Q2. Well... during Q3, the price of ethanol rocketed higher. Therefore, even though Q2 had a much better average crush margin than Q3, it's possible Q3 could have higher EPS due to how these hedges work.
To be clear - on an annual basis - the hedging has no impact. $ALTO is just locking in profit margin. But since it's not hedge accounting... it has an impact on each quarter's earnings.
ALTO's business is operating very well. They're posting quarter after quarter of profitable earnings. Q4 should be solid as well and crush margins are strengthening again. Once California E15 kicks in (1/1/2027) then margins will strengthen further.
Additionally: It sounds like passage of farm bill that includes E15 is very likely by end of this year. Check out this Politico article highlighting how the GOP is likely to pass a ton of stuff before the end of the year: https://t.co/3VL4DjDnzy
"Such a bill, he added, would be โgiantโ and would include โall the Republican priorities that we can get done.โ
The House approved a framework for a party-line bill over the summer that includes war funding, farm aid and election integrity incentives. But the push has so far run aground in the Senate
Moreno said the threat of imminent Democratic control of either the House or Senate would jump-start matters โ and potentially push Republicans to include a debt-ceiling increase as well."
"Moreno said if Democrats win control of both chambers, Republicans should stay in session nonstop to pass GOP legislation โ which could be a tall order given worries about poor post-election attendance.
โIf we lose the House and the Senate, we should be here from Nov. 9 until Dec. 31 with no break at all,โ Moreno said. โLike, weโll have turkeys here for Thanksgiving because we have to get this done.โ"
Yes. Hanford does the pretreatment and then if it is being grouted PESI handles transportation, receipt verification, stabilization through grouting, etc with the final disposal out of state. If instead Hanford processes through the vitrification plant (and turns to glass) then that secondary waste goes to PESI's Richland facility for treatment.
@MQTrading@ryancohen@michaeljburry I never make recommendations on X. I do, at times, make public my research.
I'll post an update in January though. Just for you.
Wow - @ryancohen was right. These are not the actions of a value investor. This is hardcore trading. Is there any recommendation @michaeljburry has actually held for longer than a month (or that has actually increased in value) since this newsletter has started??? $GME would have counted in both categories if he had actually held.... Just brutal performance since inception.
Maybe this is why he has refused to publicly release his funds performance? I think Burry is the only "big name" investor where the public has no clue what the actual performance of the fund was since inception. Crazy lack of transparency.
@BruceLife007@ryancohen@michaeljburry Compliance forced the change. Happy to send to anyone just has to be on a 1 to 1 basis.
Appreciate the challenge though. Fair comment.